The US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections, according to US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations.
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militaries → develop → deliberations
As planning for a short but intensive operation progresses, the US and Israeli militaries have stepped up exercises, flying planes over Iraq to practice strike manoeuvres.
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militaries → plan → manoeuvres
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss new strikes, US officials said.
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officials → meet → strikes
The targets would be likely to include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal.
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targets → include → infrastructure
Some officials say one more big round of attacks could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force the country to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.
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round → say → conflict
Still, there are reasons to be sceptical that a renewed war would be any more successful than the first phase of intense US-Israeli strikes between February and April.
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war → be → February
Those rounds of fighting drove up energy prices and inflation around the world, eroded security in the Middle East and severely strained the Pentagon’s supply of missile interceptors.
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rounds → drive → interceptors
It is also far from certain President Donald Trump will approve fresh strikes.
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Trump → approve → strikes
Repeatedly this year he has vetoed plans for a return to major combat operations, including this month when the US and Israeli militaries were nearly ready to attack.
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militaries → veto → month
All of the officials interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity to candidly discuss military planning.
Iranian officials have promised to retaliate this time by expanding their targets beyond commercial ships and energy infrastructure in the region, to data centres and underwater internet cables.
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officials → interview → centres
They say the fighting will be neither quick nor limited.
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fighting → say → ?
While the United States is assembling a massive arsenal that will be fully in place by early November, diplomatic efforts have continued, as US negotiators use the potential return to war as leverage with Iran to make progress on their demands on its nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
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negotiators → assemble → Hormuz
The United States will not have its full complement of military assets – including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces – in place until early November.
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States → have → November
So far, however, Iran’s negotiators have been unwilling to make concessions on the nuclear program, insisting on deferring that issue until later in the talks.
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negotiators → make → talks
Some US planners are convinced that an intensive three-day campaign could cause enough economic damage to change the Iranian position.
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campaign → convince → position
But US officials have frequently predicted Iran’s collapse, and other Western officials noted that Iran’s government has so far weathered the pressures on its economy.
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government → predict → economy
“At this point in the war, what is clear is that the conventional military campaign waged to date, and the current punishing economic sanctions and American naval blockade, have not brought the regime back to the negotiating table in a meaningful way,” said Dana Stroul, who served as the Pentagon’s top Middle East policy official in the Biden administration.
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who → wag → administration
Neither Trump nor Netanyahu “has made a compelling case for how more war would change this strategic dilemma in an increasingly unstable and conflict-ridden region,” said Stroul, who is now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
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who → make → Policy
Israel’s election on Tuesday could complicate the plans.
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election → complicate → plans
If Netanyahu loses, he will become a caretaker prime minister, and it will be difficult for him to launch a war, experts say.
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experts → lose → war
But some analysts believe that Netanyahu could leverage the prospect of an imminent joint US-Israel strike to pressure his rivals into joining a unity government to manage the war, which would extend his hold on power.
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which → believe → power
After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu formed a unity government that brought some opposition members into a war Cabinet to help make national security decisions.
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that → attack → decisions
“He could use this to call for a broad emergency government, but he will face deep suspicion from his political rivals,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator and the author of a biography of Netanyahu.
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Mualem → use → Netanyahu
“If Iran attacks, that’s one thing, but initiating an offensive strike would be extremely difficult for him.”
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initiating → attack → him
Officials say there is a small possibility that Trump could decide to begin a campaign this month, but there are many political reasons that he is likely to wait until after the US election – not least his own promise early this month not to strike before the vote.
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he → say → vote
The United States will not have its full complement of military assets – including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and Special Operations forces – in place until early November.
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States → have → November
The US military prefers to conduct attacks under the cover of night, and there will be increasing hours of darkness over Iran early next month.
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military → prefer → Iran
There are also concerns that the war could spiral into a larger conflict.
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war → be → conflict
On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, as the Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to attack sites there.
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militia → order → sites
A White House official said on Wednesday that the administration does not comment on military plans “that may or may not exist.”
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that → say → plans
Trump, the official added, was keeping all options on the table to ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons.
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Iran → add → weapons
Some officials say the targeting will avoid refineries and oil infrastructure because Trump is eager to prevent even higher gas prices.
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Trump → say → prices
Both the US and Israel militaries are drafting plans for operations against Iran’s nuclear program, according to people briefed on the work.
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militaries → draft → work
That could include an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried nuclear site that Iranians call Kooh Kolang.
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Iranians → include → that
Trump said last week that he was considering using a 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, or MOAB, against Pickaxe.
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he → say → Pickaxe
Officials say Trump is enamoured with the weapon in part because of its nickname, Mother of All Bombs.
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Trump → say → Bombs
But weapons specialists say that the MOAB explodes above ground, producing a wide blast, and would not likely destroy an underground site like Pickaxe, which is composed of granite.
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which → say → granite
Military officials also warn that the bomb must be delivered by a slow-flying MC-130 transport plane that would be vulnerable to Iranian anti-aircraft fire.
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that → warn → fire
Israel and the United States came close to striking Iran early this month, but Trump again decided at the last minute to postpone the attack, according to US and Israeli defence officials familiar with the details.
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Trump → come → details
The decision came shortly before the operation was to begin, after both militaries had made extensive preparations and placed their air forces on the highest state of alert.
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militaries → come → alert
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
