IEA slashes global oil demand and supply forecast again as Iran war intensifies

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Williams, H. (2026, September 15). IEA slashes global oil demand and supply forecast again as Iran war intensifies. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/iran-paris-united-states-middle-east-strait-of-hormuz-b1296650.html

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Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-15 · by Holly Williams

Quick Summary

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downward its forecast for global oil demand and supply due to ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran and increased attacks in the region. The IEA predicts a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day in worldwide oil consumption by 2026 compared to 2025, a significant increase from their August prediction of a 1.6 million barrel drop. This reduction is fueled by escalating conflicts leading to supply disruptions and higher prices, with diesel costs reaching near-record levels globally.

Written by AI on 2026-09-15, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris has reduced its forecast for worldwide oil consumption again. The IEA predicts that by 2026, global oil demand will decline by 2.5 million barrels per day compared to 2025, a significant increase from the previous August prediction of a 1.6 million barrel drop. This revision comes amid surging oil prices over $100 US dollars due to attacks on Iranian oil tankers and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The IEA also noted that UK gas prices have hit near four-year highs, raising concerns about higher energy costs this winter. Additionally, the agency warned of rising diesel costs, with prices for refined products becoming more strained than crude futures.

Written for “Iran War Oil Forecast” on 2026-10-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Iran War Oil Forecast

Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

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“The articles discuss related topics (oil demand forecasts and price predictions due to US-Iran war) but describe different analyses from IEA and JP Morgan at distinct times.”

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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0 of 9 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

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65/100

Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

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Running correction rate · 65 correction(s)

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Who wrote this

Holly Williams

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Topics

IEA Iran Iranian Paris the United States

Subjects

IEA ORG · 3× Iran GPE · 3× Iranian NORP · 2× Houthi NORP · 1× Paris GPE · 1× Russia GPE · 1× Yemen GPE · 1× the United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

It added: “With buffers shrinking and the global refining system stretched to the limit, the need for progress in resolving the conflict in the Middle East – and the Russia-Ukraine war, which is now in its fifth year – is greater than ever to avoid further market tightening and demand destruction.”

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-15

🔮 IEA slashes global oil demand and supply forecast again as Iran war intensifies The Paris-based agency said in its monthly report that the “impasse in negotiations between the United States and Iran” and renewed attacks in the region would “hamper the normalisation of oil flows”.

2026-09-15 · Evening Standard

IEA slashes global oil demand and supply forecast again as Iran war intensifies · assertive framing

Claims (9 extracted, 0 hedged)

IEA slashes global oil demand and supply forecast again as Iran war intensifies The Paris-based agency said in its monthly report that the “impasse in negotiations between the United States and Iran” and renewed attacks in the region would “hamper the normalisation of oil flows”. asserted

impasse → slash → flows

It is now predicting 2026 worldwide oil consumption dropping by 2.5 million barrels a day versus 2025, which is far greater than the 1.6 million barrels decline forecast in August. asserted

which → predict → August

The prediction comes as oil prices have surged back above 100 US dollars this week because of attacks on Iranian oil tankers and concerns about further disruptions to supply amid ongoing fighting in the Middle East. asserted

prices → come → East

UK gas prices also reached a near four-year high, sparking fears over soaring energy costs over the winter months. asserted

prices → reach → months

The IEA alerted over soaring diesel costs in particular over the months ahead, because of refining issues. asserted

IEA → alert → issues

It said: “The rise in both crude futures and physical prices pales in comparison with those for refined products, where market tightness is now most acute. asserted

tightness → say → products

“Diesel/gasoil, which accounts for nearly 30% of global demand, saw prices in the US surpass the 200 dollars a barrel mark in early September, 94% above pre-war levels, with Europe and Asia not far behind. asserted

prices → account → Europe

The IEA also cautioned that supplies would be lower than it first feared as the Strait of Hormuz remains in an Iranian chokehold, and as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have advanced on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with a “full recovery in supplies from Middle East producers deferred until 2027”. asserted

recovery → caution → 2027

which → add → tightening

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