Environment

El Nino Death Toll Warning

23 Sep to 25 Sep
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El Nino Death Toll Warning. (2026, October 13). The Aporia. https://the-aporia.com/event/28900

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BENGALURU, India (AP) — This year’s powerful El Nino and the record global heat it’s driving, along with severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies, could lead to nearly half a million more deaths worldwide by the end of February, according to a research report released Wednesday.

What happened

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The study’s authors came to their projections after researching the relationship between temperature and excess mortality in 24,378 regions, taking local climate and vulnerability into account.

5 of 5 outletsfirst reported 23 Sepwording from Al Jazeera

The researchers described this year’s El Nino as a “postcard from the future”, ushering in temperatures that will become the new normal in just a few decades.

4 of 5 outletsfirst reported 23 Sepwording from Al Jazeera

The study by Greenstone and his colleagues also warns that the Global South — a term that isn’t geographical but a reference to developing countries in general — will bear the heaviest burden of the excessive heat.

4 of 5 outletsfirst reported 23 Sepwording from Toronto Star

The country likely to suffer the most excess heat-related deaths is Nigeria with 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.

4 of 5 outletsfirst reported 23 Sepwording from Al Jazeera

Analysis

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How it changed

  1. 23 Sep

    The study combined seasonal temperature forecasts with localized estimates of how high temperatures affect mortality across more than 24,000 regions worldwide.

    5 outlets · Toronto Star
  2. 25 Sep

    The El Niño is also a “postcard from our future,” the researchers said, pushing up temperatures to the level the climate crisis is projected to deliver in 20 years.

    2 outlets · Mother Jones

Coverage 6 articles

Built 2026-10-13 from 6 articles. Every sentence on this page is quoted from the linked article; nothing was written by a model except the Summary and the items marked AI, which cite their sources, and the questions and labels under "Disputed". Photos are from the outlets that covered the story, never from articles our check marks sensitive.

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