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Scientists from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab project that over 450,000 additional deaths may occur globally due to heat linked to the strong El Nino event lasting until February 2027. Developing nations and Africa’s Sahel region are expected to be particularly affected, with Nigeria seeing the highest projected toll at around 31,400 deaths. Michael Greenstone, a cofounder of the lab, emphasizes that areas already experiencing high temperatures will face more significant dangers from the additional heat caused by El Nino, underscoring the critical role of access to resources like air conditioning and healthcare in mitigating risks.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-23,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
This year’s powerful El Niño could lead to nearly half a million more deaths worldwide by the end of February 2027, according to a report from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab. The study projects up to 451,000 additional heat-related fatalities between June and February compared to normal years. Poorer countries and regions like the Sahel in Africa are expected to suffer most, with about 66,800 additional deaths there alone. India is also projected to see over 15,000 excess deaths by February 2027, though these numbers might be less convincing as it won't experience its hottest summer period yet. The report highlights that extra heat has a more severe impact in already hot and poor regions, emphasizing the need for protective measures like better heat forecasts and cooling centers to mitigate such impacts.
Written for “El Nino Death Toll Warning” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 5 other(s) covering the same event.
More than 450,000 people are projected to die from additional heat due to the unusually strong El Nino event over the next six months, according to a research report.
uncertain
people → project → report
The projection, published on Wednesday by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, runs to February 2027 and compares estimates of heat-related deaths that could be attributed to El Nino with the level expected in a typical year.
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Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could climb by about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit), with extremely hot days 44 percent more frequent than in an average year.
uncertain
days → publish → year
Developing nations and Africa’s Sahel region are expected to be hit disproportionately hard.
asserted
nations → develop → ?
The report projected about 66,800 additional deaths across the Sahel, with Nigeria having the highest projected toll of any single country at 31,400, ahead of Indonesia at 19,300 and Sudan at 17,600.
asserted
Nigeria → project → 17,600
Elsewhere, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are forecast to see a combined 19,400 extra deaths, with 15,800 projected in India and 13,300 in Brazil.
asserted
Philippines → forecast → Brazil
‘Much more dangerous’
Michael Greenstone, cofounder of the lab and co-author of the study, said the findings show heat poses the greatest threat where temperatures are already high and incomes relatively low.
“If you’re already in a hot place, the extra couple of degrees are going to be much more dangerous,” he said.
asserted
he → say → degrees
Richer places tend to have better access to air conditioning, steady water supplies and health services, he added.
asserted
he → tend → conditioning
Greenstone said the heat risk was likely to outlast the El Nino itself, with repercussions stretching into next summer.
asserted
repercussions → say → summer
Abhiyant Tiwari, who specialises in heat at NRDC India, told The Associated Press news agency that the projections should spur action.
asserted
projections → specialise → action
Funding and delivery remain weak points, he said, even in India, which has sound plans on paper.
asserted
which → remain → paper
“The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths,” he said.
asserted
he → issue → deaths
This year’s El Nino began developing in June and is expected to be one of the strongest ever.
asserted
Nino → develop → strongest
Experts say the natural weather pattern, which occurs cyclically, is being “supercharged” by climate change.
asserted
which → say → change
In early September, the United Nations’ weather agency reported a 100 percent likelihood that El Nino will continue through February 2027.
asserted
Nino → report → February
But researchers say its dangers could linger into mid-2027.
uncertain
dangers → say → mid-2027
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