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“Amidst a blue wave, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson lost in Florida in 2018, a state which at the time was only slightly to the right of the electoral tipping point.”

“…ightest recovery for Republicans on the generic ballot — but I’d argue that state and district polls have, if anything, been getting better for Democrats, like in a set of CNN polls yesterday morning that had them winning Kansas by 4 points and Texas by 6…”

“I owe you a Model Talk on what happens if Democrats lose one of the Senate races in a blue state — either Maine, where they’re on offense, or Michigan (or less likely, Minnesota or New Hampshire2) where they’re defending currently D-held seats.”

“Of course, you don’t want to be too results-oriented. [But] with the midterm model, 80 percent of the work is in gathering these 68 fucking files that we have, and making sure that the 550-odd races5 that we’re forecasting — governor, House, Senate — making…”

“But there’s long been a deficiency when it comes to our coverage of AI, which occupies more and more of my headspace even though we only write about it occasionally.”