Now picture all of it cut down, burned or otherwise gone.
asserted
all → picture → it
That is roughly the amount of original primary forest the
Amazon has lost, according to a new
report from Amazon Conservation’s Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program (MAAP).
uncertain
Amazon → lose → Program
The latest analysis found that 97 million hectares (240 million acres) of primary forest had been lost across the Amazon biome’s nine countries by the end of 2025.
asserted
hectares → find → 2025
It also found that the routes carrying moisture during the dry and transition seasons had been the most disrupted.
asserted
routes → find → seasons
Most of that loss came from people clearing land, with fire accounting for a large share.
asserted
fire → come → share
About 15% of the basin’s original forest is now gone.
asserted
% → go → forest
The numbers come from MAAP #250, a 2026 update to the group’s earlier tracking.
asserted
numbers → come → tracking
In 2021, the same group put the figure at 13.2%.
asserted
group → put → %
The jump may look small on paper, but it covers a huge amount of ground.
uncertain
it → look → ground
Between 2022 and 2025 alone, another 13.04 million hectares (32.2 million acres) disappeared, the analysis found.
asserted
analysis → disappear → 2022
According to the report, fire did much of the damage.
uncertain
fire → accord → damage
The record fire losses of 2024 came after a strong El Niño season in 2023.
asserted
losses → come → 2023
This forest loss brings the Amazon closer to a tipping point which, according to scientific literature, could occur when about 25% of its forest is lost, alongside the effects of climate change.
uncertain
% → bring → change
A forest can take decades to recover, if it recovers at all, and every lost season pushes the basin closer to a point of no return.
asserted
season → take → return
Most people never see the Amazon’s most important water system because it flies overhead.
asserted
it → see → system
That’s right!
asserted
That → ’ → ?
Trees pull water up from the soil and release it into the air as vapour.
asserted
Trees → pull → vapour
Winds carry that moisture across the continent, and the forest recycles it again and again.
asserted
forest → carry → it
The rainforest produces roughly half of its own rainfall, and that moisture may be reused up to six times as it moves.
uncertain
it → produce → times
Scientists call these moving bands of moisture flying rivers.
asserted
Scientists → call → moisture
The MAAP analysis also broke down forest loss along the Amazon’s seasonal flying rivers.
asserted
analysis → break → rivers
It found that some of these routes are weakening faster than others.
asserted
some → find → others
The report found that moisture pathways during the dry and transition seasons have lost nearly three times as much forest as those during the wet season.
asserted
pathways → find → season
These pathways are vital to forests in southwestern Amazonia, particularly in Peru and Bolivia, where forests recycle moisture that supplies more than 70% of rainfall across the basin.
asserted
that → recycle → basin
The wet-season route crosses thick, well-protected forest in the north and has lost only 3.2% of its forest connection.
asserted
route → cross → connection
The routes active during the transition and dry seasons have lost nearly three times as much, at 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively.
asserted
routes → lose → %
Brazil accounts for 79.4% of total forest loss.
asserted
Brazil → account → loss
Bolivia comes next at 6.2%, followed by Peru at 5.8% and Colombia at 4.5%.
asserted
Bolivia → come → %
Bolivia has climbed to second place from fourth in the 2022 assessment.
asserted
Bolivia → climb → assessment
These findings are especially concerning as a strong El Niño is forecast for late 2026.
asserted
Niño → forecast → 2026
It could disrupt moisture flows during the wet season, extend dry periods and increase the risk of forest fires.
uncertain
It → disrupt → fires
The areas at greatest risk are the same regions where the report found the most damage to moisture pathways.
asserted
report → find → pathways
“Media reports often indicate in general terms that the Amazon is approaching a tipping point, but this is the actual data indicating the magnitude of the problem.
asserted
this → indicate → problem
With 15% of the original Amazon lost to deforestation and fires, we are approaching the point at which the hydrological cycle that sustains rainforests may be permanently disrupted,” said Matt Finer, director of MAAP and senior research specialist at Amazon Conservation.
uncertain
Finer → lose → Conservation
Why the Amazon’s tipping point matters
The Amazon’s tipping point hypothesis suggests that parts of the rainforest could shift towards drier savannah once about 25% of the forest is lost, especially if climate change disrupts rainfall and stretches the dry season.
uncertain
change → matter → season
That gap looks comfortable until you check how quickly the losses have piled up.
asserted
losses → look → ?
Scientists believe this threshold is not a hard line.
asserted
threshold → believe → ?
These changes may come gradually, in patches and unevenly across the basin.
uncertain
changes → come → basin
Some regions could feel the effects long before others.
uncertain
regions → feel → others
Data: Amazon Conservation/MAAP
Meanwhile, a very strong El Niño is forecast to develop in late 2026.
asserted
Niño → forecast → 2026
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
