Five weeks ago, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.
asserted
Arabia → sign → Agreement
An armed attack on one, the text says, is an attack on all.
asserted
text → say → all
Commentators called it an Islamic NATO.
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Commentators → call → it
This week it was tested.
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it → test → ?
On Sept. 8, Houthi missiles and drones hit four Saudi cities, wounding 73 civilians and halting operations at energy facilities.
asserted
missiles → hit → facilities
Two days later, the Houthis took Mokha, their largest territorial gain since the 2022 truce.
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Houthis → take → truce
On Friday, they took Dhubab and crossed to Perim, the island splitting the Bab el-Mandeb at its narrowest point.
asserted
they → take → point
A military official told AFP they also took Greater and Lesser Hanish, leaving all four of the strait’s strategic islands in their hands, and that the takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb was complete.
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takeover → tell → Mandeb
Tareq Saleh, deputy chairman of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, acknowledged losing Mokha and said Iran had planned and backed the attack.
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Iran → acknowledge → attack
The United Nations counted at least 46,000 people displaced.
asserted
people → count → ?
Roughly a tenth of the world’s seaborne trade and a third of Europe’s imports cross that strait, and Saudi Arabia has leaned on it as traffic through Hormuz has collapsed — IMF PortWatch counted six transits there on Sept. 6 against a pre-crisis norm of near 85 a day.
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PortWatch → cross → 85
Brent settled near $108 on Thursday; American diesel passed $6 a gallon.
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diesel → settle → 6
I started drafting this when Mokha had fallen, and Perim had not, and wrote that at that pace the Houthis would need two more days and nights to reach the strait.
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Houthis → start → strait
That was wrong; it took about one.
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it → take → one
The rest of what I wrote that morning held — only the clock was off, and in the direction that flatters nobody.
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that → write → nobody
I record the error rather than the forecast, because the direction of travel was easy to read off a map.
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direction → record → map
Harder to read was the rest of the page.
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rest → read → page
In the same 48 hours, the American and European press were consumed by Trump’s Dallas promise of a $5,000 dividend to every adult citizen if Republicans hold both chambers of Congress, and by a joint statement from eight governments welcoming Britain’s ban on imports from Israeli settlements.
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Republicans → consume → settlements
One had been under missile fire the day before, would lose a port the day after, and the strait the day after that.
So what did the pact produce?
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pact → lose → what
The night the missiles landed, Pakistan’s defense minister said a spillover from Yemen would mean “definitely the Mecca agreement will become operational.”
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agreement → land → Yemen
Two days later, his foreign ministry said no military response was under discussion: “When time comes (we) will act under the agreement.”
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we → say → agreement
Turkey condemned the attacks in the strongest terms.
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Turkey → condemn → terms
Pakistani sources told Reuters their country would not enter Yemen at all.
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country → tell → Yemen
What the pact delivered was a courier.
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delivered → deliver → What
Pakistan carried Riyadh’s message to Tehran, asking it to rein in the Houthis.
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Pakistan → carry → Houthis
Tehran’s reply: “Iran does not control the Houthis.”
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Iran → control → Houthis
Then, on Friday, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, posted on X: “Congratulations on this resounding victory, Ansar Allah.”
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Mokhber → post → victory
Iran’s first vice president welcomed “the victories of the heroic nation of Yemen.”
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president → welcome → Yemen
Reuters, citing five Yemeni military sources and intercepted communications, reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards directed the coastal campaign; Tehran denies it.
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Tehran → cite → it
A government that says it does not control the Houthis does not usually congratulate them by name.
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it → say → name
Note what Riyadh did once the pact had answered.
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pact → note → what
On Thursday, as Mokha fell, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Trump twice — the second time to ask for American strikes, Axios first reported, with Reuters citing three sources and CBS two of its own.
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CBS → fall → own
Trump declined.
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Trump → decline → ?
His directive is to keep American forces on Iran and Hormuz rather than open a second front; Washington offered intelligence sharing and targeting support instead, and Adm. Brad Cooper, who leads U.S. Central Command, flew to the kingdom for what Axios called urgent meetings.
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Axios → keep → what
In July, Riyadh had said it could handle the Houthis alone.
uncertain
it → say → Houthis
The same day, the kingdom was hit from the other direction.
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kingdom → hit → direction
Its foreign ministry said the East-West oil pipeline — built to carry crude to the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz — was struck by drones launched from Iraq and shut as a precaution.
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pipeline → say → precaution
Riyadh said it would not respond “at this stage,” at the request of Iraq’s prime minister, who confirmed the launches came from Iraqi territory.
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launches → say → territory
Trump said Saturday that Iran was “probably” behind it.
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Iran → say → it
Saudi Arabia answered the two fronts differently.
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Arabia → answer → fronts
…and 48 more, not listed.
The Aporia
