With just 20 days to go before the midterm elections, Kelly Kirschner faced a crowd of his supporters last week at Café Havana, a Cuban restaurant in Bradenton, Florida, located in Congressional District 16—which he is hoping to win come November.
asserted
he → go → which
Kirschner, a third-generation Floridian, is a former Sarasota mayor and a founder of UnidosNow, a nonprofit that has advocated for Latinos in Manatee and Sarasota counties for nearly 17 years.
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that → advocate → years
He effortlessly switches between English and Spanish as he addressed this group, which gathered for the launch of his latest coalition, Latinos for Kelly.
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which → switch → Kelly
The Democratic candidate is campaigning on promises to lower the cost of living, advocate for Medicare and Medicaid benefits, and protect the Gulf coast waters from development.
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candidate → campaign → development
“This country deserves and desperately needs a politics of good faith,” he said.
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he → deserve → faith
“We need to get to the place that’s the opposite of what Elon Musk says, that the biggest human weakness is empathy, where we get to a place where we actually appreciate empathy, and we talk about that with our children, grandchildren, and how that will make this country better.”
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country → need → grandchildren
Half the residents in the district, he added, are living paycheck-to-paycheck.
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he → add → paycheck
“We should stop these stupid culture wars and start focusing on how we help people, help make people’s lives better, and really change outcomes.”
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lives → stop → outcomes
Kirschner is running against Sydney Gruters, the wife of state Sen. Joe Gruters, who is the current chairman of the Republican National Committee.
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who → run → Committee
Gruters is endorsed by Trump, as well as by other Florida Republican standard bearers, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis and US Sen. Rick Scott.
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Gruters → endorse → DeSantis
Her campaign has been flooded with more than $1.6 million, including a recent check from Elon Musk’s SpaceX, the Tampa Bay Times reported.
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Times → flood → SpaceX
Kirschner and Gruters are competing to win the House seat that is now open following longtime Republican Congressman Vern Buchanan’s retirement.
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that → compete → retirement
The race has recently captured the attention of Trump loyalist Laura Loomer, who attacked Kirschner using his old social media posts regarding the Black Lives Matter movement.
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who → capture → movement
“She attacked us,” Kirschner said during the event, noting that his GOP opponents “don’t send the attack dogs” unless “they’re on the verge of losing.”
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they → attack → verge
Gruters did not respond to my requests for an interview.
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Gruters → respond → interview
Kirschner pointed out two recent polls that show the race will be tight, with one showing Gruters leading by just four points and the other, with Kirschner ahead by just one point.
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Kirschner → point → point
This scenario is playing out in many congressional races across Florida—including those that had been gerrymandered to benefit Republicans during Florida’s redistricting special session this year.
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that → play → session
The Sunshine State joined several other states that followed Trump’s orders to participate in mid-decade redistricting.
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that → join → redistricting
DeSantis claimed he called the special session because Florida required districts that accurately reflected its rapidly growing population.
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that → claim → population
In reality, a mapmaker later divulged at a legislative hearing that the new districts were drawn using partisan data.
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districts → divulge → data
But, nonetheless, even with changes to the electoral map that were supposed to benefit Republicans, some races are tighter than anyone would have expected.
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anyone → suppose → Republicans
I spoke to political science professors and political consultants about why so many races in Florida are in play, and they all pointed to the Iran war, the rise in cost of living that has affected all voters in this state and beyond, and the overall performance of President Donald Trump.
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that → speak → Trump
“It begins to really impact midterm dynamics,” said Michael Worley, a political consultant for several Democratic campaigns in Florida this year.
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Worley → begin → Florida
“That has been a trend that we’ve seen across the United States.”
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we → see → States
Kirschner’s now gerrymandered district that once comprised Manatee county and a portion of neighboring Hillsborough county, now includes parts of six different counties, spanning from the Gulf coast beaches to the farming communities of central Florida.
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that → comprise → Florida
In an interview after the event, Kirschner told me that no matter how different the communities may be, the affordability crisis is hitting all of them in the same way.
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crisis → tell → way
Several factors are working in Kirschner’s favor.
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factors → work → favor
One has to do with the gerrymander itself, and the fact that CD16 now includes swaths of St. Petersburg, a Democratic bubble in southwest Florida.
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CD16 → have → Florida
The other seems directly related to the cratering popularity of Trump.
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other → seem → Trump
In recent weeks, a coalition of Republicans have come forward to support Kirschner as well.
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coalition → come → Kirschner
“I think when you recognize, are we doing better or worse than we were two years ago, the answer is very simple,” he told me after the event.
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he → think → event
“It is much worse and that’s where we see, across the political spectrum, that folks that are coming with us.”
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that → ’ → us
Republicans have controlled Florida in recent years, and of the 13.7 million total registered voters, they now have a 1.5 million registered voter advantage over Democrats.
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they → control → Democrats
Add to this the fact that the redistricted map potentially gives the GOP up to 24 of the 28 total US House seats in the state—where before they held 20.
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they → add → 20
But the new advantage comes with a catch.
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advantage → come → catch
“When you create more districts that are favorable to Republicans, the margin is not as favorable anymore,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida.
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Jewett → create → Florida
That means that when lines are redrawn to create more GOP seats, the actual pool of eligible Republican voters has become more diluted.
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pool → mean → voters
“When they drew those lines, there was the possibility that it could backfire,” he said.
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he → draw → lines
The timing of the redistricting was also critical, since it took place when Trump’s unpopularity began to rise.
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unpopularity → take → place
And then there is the simple political reality that a president’s party typically loses more congressional seats during the midterms.
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party → be → midterms
…and 32 more, not listed.
The Aporia
