The National Crime Agency (NCA) attributes a 41% reduction in small boat Channel crossings to increased law enforcement activity during the first half of 2026. The NCA highlights that arrests, seizures, and supply constraints on equipment have significantly impacted smugglers' operations. However, Mihnea Cuibus from Oxford University's Migration Observatory cautions that it is challenging to isolate the impact of government policy from other factors such as improved security in origin countries and fluctuations in demand for crossings.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-15,
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- Published
Law enforcement activity has been a "key factor" in reducing the number of small boat Channel crossings, the National Crime Agency (NCA) says.
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Agency → publish → crossings
The number of people arriving in the UK in the first half of 2026 was down 41% on the year before, government figures show.
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figures → arrive → year
The NCA said the drop followed a "significant increase in arrests and seizures", although added "fluctuating demand" for crossings, and the French authorities preventing boat launches had also played a role.
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authorities → say → role
However, Mihnea Cuibus, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford University's Migration Observatory, says it is "impossible" to disentangle the effects of government policy and other factors on small boat arrivals.
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it → say → arrivals
While recent policy changes appear to have led smugglers and migrants to alter their behaviour, Cuibus says fewer unauthorised arrivals into the EU and developments in key origin countries - such as improved security in Syria - may be partially behind the decline.
"It is hard to know how much restrictive measures contributed to reducing [arrivals] in 2026," he continues.
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he → appear → 2026
He said limitations on refugee family reunion and a reduction in the asylum grant rate could also have had an impact.
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limitations → say → impact
The Conservatives have previously said the weather played a huge role in the fluctuating numbers of crossings from France and Belgium.
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weather → say → France
NCA director general of operations Rob Jones said the agency was "devoting more resources to tackling organised immigration crime than ever before".
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agency → say → crime
"That is bringing results.
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That → bring → results
"However, we are not complacent, and the job is by no means done," he continued.
"
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he → do → means
We must continue to keep up the pressure on these criminal gangs, as they continue to put lives at risk in the Channel.
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they → continue → Channel
The NCA said organised crime groups had been affected by "supply constraints" on vital equipment used in crossings.
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groups → say → crossings
More than 1,600 boats or engines have been seized by the authorities since late 2023, it said.
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it → seize → 2023
The wholesale cost of these items has gone up as a result, according to an NCA spokesperson.
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cost → go → spokesperson
The NCA said a "number of key suppliers" had also been targeted, including the jailing of Adem Savas who reportedly supplied equipment used in about half of all crossings in 2023.
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who → say → 2023
However, the NCA also admitted the war in the Middle East had also made it harder for criminals to source dinghies.
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criminals → admit → dinghies
It added it could not publish its report on small boats in full because it contained sensitive intelligence.
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it → add → intelligence
The NCA also pointed to activity targeting people smugglers reducing small boat crossings.
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NCA → point → crossings
In the year to April 2026, arrests linked to organised immigration crime involving the NCA increased by more than 55%, it said.
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it → link → %
The agency added it had also worked with social media networks to have more than 40,000 posts pages or accounts linked to immigration crime removed.
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pages → add → crime
"We are making it more difficult and costlier for people smuggling networks to source equipment, more difficult to get it to the beaches and in the water, more difficult to communicate with potential customers, and more likely smugglers will be confronted by law enforcement," said Jones.
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Jones → make → enforcement
"Our message to the gangs is clear – moving people in small boats and supplying equipment gets riskier for you by the day," he continued.
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he → move → day
However, the Migration Observatory said "most notably" there had been a sharp decline in detected unauthorised border crossings into the EU.
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Observatory → say → EU
It said arrivals fell 26% in 2025, before declining another 37% in the first half of 2026.
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arrivals → say → 2026
"This is likely to lead, with a lag, to fewer unauthorised crossings to the UK, since most small boat migrants travel through the EU before reaching beaches in northern France," it added.
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it → lead → France
In August, the Home Office credited police in France with intercepting 185 potential crossings involving 4,300 migrants this summer over four separate weeks, as well as stopping 12 boats at sea using new techniques.
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Office → credit → techniques
Many migrants come from some of the poorest parts of the world and almost all ask to claim asylum once they are picked up by the UK authorities.
Home Office figures show a total of 41,472 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats in 2025.
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total → come → 2025
A total of 162 people died in the Channel between 2018 and 2025, it adds.
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it → die → 2018
The Aporia
