Pakistan and Afghanistan right now are locked in a cycle of escalating tension.
asserted
Pakistan → lock → tension
Repeated border clashes have strained ties between the two nations.
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clashes → strain → nations
The current round of tensions began in February 2026, when Pakistan launched strikes into Afghanistan targeting Taliban militants.
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Pakistan → begin → militants
At one point in March, Pakistan's defense minister said the country was at "open war" with Afghanistan.
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country → say → Afghanistan
Periodic bouts of violence have continued since then, with the latest Pakistani strikes targeting the Afghan Taliban's "terrorist hubs" reported earlier in October.
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strikes → continue → October
At the heart of the dispute is Pakistan's accusation that the Taliban authorities in Kabul allow the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group, to target Pakistan from Afghan territory.
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Taliban → allow → territory
Kabul denies providing the group with sanctuary.
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Kabul → deny → sanctuary
Where does India come into play?
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India → come → play
As the two neighbors trade strikes, the escalating conflict "presents a significant diplomatic and strategic opportunity for India," Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, an Afghanistan expert and founder of the India-based Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, told DW.
asserted
D'Souza → trade → DW
D'Souza argues the confrontation has weakened Pakistan's traditional influence in Afghanistan and encouraged the Taliban to broaden its external relations.
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confrontation → argue → relations
"India can respond by expanding diplomatic engagement, humanitarian assistance, development projects and trade, while seeking assurances that Afghan territory will not be used by anti-India militant groups," she said.
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she → respond → groups
However, D'Souza cautioned against interpreting the opening as a fundamental realignment.
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D'Souza → caution → realignment
"There is no ideological alignment between India and the Taliban," she said.
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she → be → India
Afghanistan under Taliban rule is likely to pursue a diversified foreign policy rather than align exclusively with New Delhi.
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Afghanistan → pursue → Delhi
India also lacks the geographical advantages, economic leverage and security presence needed to replace Pakistan's influence, she notes.
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she → lack → influence
"The scenario of the Taliban becoming a strategic ally remains far-fetched."
asserted
Taliban → become → ?
Former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan Amar Sinha warned against viewing the conflict simply as an opportunity for New Delhi to gain at Pakistan's expense.
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Delhi → warn → expense
"The issues have very little to do with India," Sinha told DW, arguing that India was not seeking strategic advantage from the fighting.
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India → have → fighting
He also pointed to the consequences of Pakistan's military actions for Afghan civilians.
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He → point → civilians
"Yet the rupture has made Kabul's search for alternative partners more pressing," he added.
asserted
he → make → partners
For India, that creates an opening, but not necessarily a strategic alignment, Sinha notes.
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Sinha → create → opening
The Taliban can seek Indian assistance while maintaining relations with China, Russia, Iran and Gulf states, preserving its autonomy rather than exchanging dependence on Pakistan for dependence on India.
asserted
Taliban → seek → India
The cost of closer ties
Gautam Mukhopadhyaya, another former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, sees the deterioration in relations between Pakistan and the Taliban as an opportunity for India to recover some of the strategic ground it lost when the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
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Taliban → see → 2021
"The crisis has allowed strategic openings for India," Mukhopadhyaya told DW.
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Mukhopadhyaya → allow → DW
He warned, however, that New Delhi's own treatment of Afghans could undermine its efforts to build a durable relationship.
uncertain
treatment → warn → relationship
He pointed to restrictions affecting Afghans seeking Indian visas for education, scholarships, work and medical treatment.
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He → point → education
"For all practical purposes, India's security establishment treats Afghans as proxy Pakistanis and 'terrorists' by default," he said.
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he → treat → default
Former Afghan partners had been left "disappointed, even bitter," Mukhopadhyaya added.
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Mukhopadhyaya → leave → ?
"A strategic relationship built on the sands of oppression is not a sound foundation."
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relationship → build → oppression
Trade cannot overcome geography
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Trade → overcome → geography
India has restored air freight links between Kabul and Delhi and between Kabul and Amritsar in northwestern India in December 2025.
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India → restore → December
Bilateral trade between India and Afghanistan stood at about $908 million (€807 million) in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan fell sharply amid repeated border closures.
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trade → stand → closures
On October 14, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi stressed the importance of relations with India during talks with Indian charge d'affaires Yatin Patel, signaling Kabul's interest in expanding economic cooperation.
But air freight is expensive, and India cannot easily replace Pakistan as a transit route.
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India → stress → route
New Delhi has sought to use Iran's Chabahar port to improve access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, but regional instability and complications surrounding Iran have constrained those ambitions.
asserted
instability → seek → ambitions
D'Souza cautioned that "the ongoing conflict in Iran" limits India's ability to use Chabahar as a crucial trade and connectivity hub.
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conflict → caution → hub
Gulshan Sachdeva, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University specializing in Afghanistan and Eurasian connectivity, highlighted similar obstacles.
asserted
Sachdeva → specialize → obstacles
"In the last few decades, Islamabad has obstructed Kabul's efforts to gain access to the vast Indian market.
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Islamabad → obstruct → market
However, political instability in Afghanistan and sanctions on Iran have undermined these efforts," Sachdeva told DW.
asserted
Sachdeva → undermine → DW
"Afghanistan's potential as a connector between regional markets remains considerable, but the infrastructure and political conditions needed to realize it are far from assured," he added.
asserted
he → remain → it
Sachdeva also sees Russia and China as better positioned to shape Afghanistan's wider economic integration.
asserted
Sachdeva → see → integration
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
