One year after Raila Odinga’s death, the political movement he led for decades is struggling to define its future.
asserted
he → lead → future
Within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a bitter dispute over cooperation with President William Ruto has exposed divisions over the party’s identity and independence.
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dispute → expose → identity
The struggle raises a question that extends beyond ODM’s leadership: Can Kenya’s opposition remain a credible force without the man who helped shape it?
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who → raise → it
Raila’s death prompted tributes and commemorations celebrating a political career defined by the struggle for multiparty democracy, constitutional reform, freedom of expression and social justice.
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death → prompt → expression
Yet the divisions now confronting his party reveal the difficulty of sustaining a political movement built around one dominant figure.
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divisions → confront → figure
His legacy remains a source of inspiration, but also a point of contention over what ODM should stand for and how it should exercise power.
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it → remain → power
The removal of Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who opposed closer cooperation with the president, has become a flashpoint in a wider struggle over the party’s direction.
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who → oppose → direction
The disagreement is about more than personalities: It raises questions about whether ODM can work with the government while retaining the independence to challenge it.
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ODM → raise → it
A vacuum at the heart of the opposition
For decades, Raila occupied a central place in Kenya’s reform movements, challenging successive governments and campaigning for political change.
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Raila → occupy → change
To his supporters, he represented resistance and the promise of a more accountable political system.
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he → represent → system
His influence, however, also meant that the opposition’s ability to unite often depended on his personal authority, political networks and capacity to negotiate competing interests.
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ability → mean → interests
Political analyst Professor Herman Manyora argues that Raila’s absence has left a vacuum that the opposition has struggled to fill.
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opposition → argue → that
I think there’s a way in which people thought Raila was not going to die.
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Raila → think → which
We had immortalised Raila,” Manyora says.
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Manyora → immortalise → Raila
He argues that the opposition has yet to find a figure capable of bringing its competing interests together.
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opposition → argue → interests
There isn’t a figure that people can rally around,” he says.
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he → be → that
The assessment points to a challenge that predates Raila’s death but has become more visible since it: A movement can inherit a leader’s political legacy without necessarily inheriting the authority that held it together.
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that → point → it
Whether that vacuum becomes a lasting weakness will depend on the ability of other leaders to build trust, establish a common agenda and organise beyond individual loyalties.
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becomes → become → loyalties
The alliance that divided his legacy
Raila’s decision to work with Ruto in 2024, amid nationwide protests against the Finance Bill, remains one of the most contested chapters of his political career.
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that → divide → career
The protests, driven in large part by young Kenyans, developed into a wider expression of anger about taxation, governance and political accountability.
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protests → drive → taxation
As pressure mounted on the government, Raila’s move towards cooperation with Ruto raised questions about whether dialogue could deliver meaningful change or whether it risked drawing the opposition closer to the establishment it had long challenged.
uncertain
it → mount → establishment
Manyora views the intervention as a decisive moment for Ruto’s administration.
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Manyora → view → administration
“What happened then was that Raila came to the rescue of President William Ruto because, had he not come to rescue Ruto, I think the government would have collapsed,” he says.
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he → happen → Ruto
Although Manyora’s assessment of the political consequences of the alliance is debatable, his interpretation captures the significance of Raila’s decision: A politician long associated with opposition politics had become a partner in an arrangement with the president against whom many Kenyans were protesting.
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Kenyans → capture → whom
For some young Kenyans, the alliance was a betrayal of the political struggle that had made Raila a symbol of resistance.
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Raila → make → resistance
The Gen Z-led protests emerged largely outside traditional political structures, driven by demands for accountability and frustration with established political elites.
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protests → lead → elites
Many protesters rejected the idea that their movement should be absorbed into negotiations among familiar political figures.
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movement → reject → figures
Joshua Okayo, a lawyer and human rights activist who identifies with the Gen Z generation, says Raila’s decision left him feeling betrayed.
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decision → identify → him
“As a Gen Z, I recognise the kind of politics he fought for.
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he → recognise → politics
I recognise the years he put into fighting for social justice, democracy, rule of law, constitutionalism, and many good things.
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he → recognise → law
But I also have a spot in my heart where I feel he betrayed the generation,” Okayo says.
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Okayo → have → generation
That criticism captures the tension at the heart of the debate about Raila’s legacy: whether political compromise was a pragmatic attempt to stabilise the country and pursue reform, or a retreat from the principles that had defined his career.
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that → capture → career
Supporters of cooperation argued that dialogue offered a route towards addressing national challenges without prolonged confrontation, while critics saw the partnership as evidence that opposition politics risked being absorbed into the very political establishment it was meant to hold accountable.
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it → argue → establishment
The question is not simply whether Raila compromised, but whether the arrangement delivered enough to justify the political cost.
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arrangement → compromise → cost
ODM’s struggle to define its future
That debate now confronts ODM as it tries to establish its direction without Raila’s authority.
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it → define → authority
His ability to negotiate alliances and manage competing interests helped hold the party together.
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ability → negotiate → party
In his absence, disagreements over cooperation with Ruto have become harder to contain, exposing divisions over the party’s identity and its role in national politics.
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disagreements → become → politics
Sifuna’s removal has brought those divisions into sharper focus.
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removal → bring → focus
His opposition to closer ties with the president has raised questions about how ODM makes decisions, whose interests its leadership represents and whether the party can maintain its independence while working with a government it once opposed.
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it → raise → government
Catherine Omanyo, identified as ODM’s new secretary-general and a member of Parliament, argues that the party’s cooperation with Ruto should be judged by its commitments rather than by the symbolism of the alliance.
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cooperation → identify → alliance
…and 23 more, not listed.
The Aporia
