The commercial cost of Afghan intransigence

Read the original at Dawn ↗
Cite

Ali, M. (2026, October 19). The commercial cost of Afghan intransigence. Dawn. https://www.dawn.com/news/2038209/the-commercial-cost-of-afghan-intransigence

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Dawn · collected 2026-10-19 · by Manzoor Ali

Quick Summary

The article reports on the significant decline in bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan, dropping from $1.3 billion in fiscal year 2024-25 to just over $350 million in fiscal year 2025-26, with a further drop of 95% recorded by August 2026. This economic downturn is attributed to the closure of key border crossings following conflicts and continued intransigence from the Taliban regime regarding security concerns. Traders emphasize the need for balancing security measures with trade requirements, highlighting the severe impact on Pakistani industries such as transport and pharmaceuticals, which have suffered heavy losses since the border closures began in October 2025.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-19, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of October 19, 2026, the commercial relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan remains strained due to the prolonged closure of their border since October 12, 2025. Bilateral trade has dropped significantly from $1.3 billion in FY24-25 to just over $350 million in FY25-26. Islamabad insists on engagement with Kabul only if the Taliban takes tangible action against terrorists operating within its borders, but this condition remains unmet, leading to a halt in trade at key crossings like Torkham and others. This closure has severely affected industries such as transport and pharmaceuticals in Pakistan, causing heavy losses and impacting local businesses in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Trade figures from July reveal that Afghan Transit Trade, which previously involved nearly 89,000 containers valued at $5 billion, has now plummeted to just 11,592 containers worth $367 million.

Written for “Afghan Intransigence Costs Commercially” on 2026-10-19, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 89871: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-19

Story

📰 Afghan Intransigence Costs Commercially
World · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 16% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Closing the Afghan file different event · 95%
Dawn
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 37 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles discuss different aspects related to Pakistan and its relationships, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Dawn
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 5 of 29 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles discuss related topics about Pakistan's stance towards Afghanistan, but describe different aspects: one focuses on Pakistan's diplomatic position regarding unconditional talks, while the other discusses the economic impact of strained relations.”
State of denial different event · 85%
Dawn
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 2 of 21 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles discuss related topics regarding Pakistan and Afghanistan's strained relations but describe different aspects: Article A focuses on potential Russian mediation, while Article B discusses the economic impact of the conflict on trade.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
31
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
16%
5 of 31 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
72/100
Dawn's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
World
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-19 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Dawn · 1884 article(s) · 3 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 3 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Manzoor Ali
7 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 “Potato prices will go up in the coming months as demand will rise against limited supply,” Mr Sohni feared.
2026-10-19 · assertive framing · The commercial cost of Afghan intransigence
🔮 The move comes as PTI’s long march, launched on Oct 4 from Lakki Marwat, is set to reach Peshawar today according to PTI’s schedule.
🔮 The move comes as PTI’s long march, launched on Oct 4 from Lakki Marwat, is set to reach Peshawar today according to PTI’s schedule.
Also by Manzoor Ali
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 7 articles by Manzoor Ali →

Topics

Afghanistan PESHAWAR Pakistan Taliban Torkham

Subjects

Afghanistan GPE · 6× Pakistan GPE · 4× Afghan NORP · 2× Altaf PERSON · 2× Khyber Pakhtunkhwa GPE · 2× PESHAWAR GPE · 2× Pakistani NORP · 2× TDAP ORG · 2× Taliban ORG · 2× Torkham GPE · 2×

Narrative

Pakistani exports to Afghanistan include pharmaceutical products, cement, plastics, rice, fruits and vegetables among others, while major imports include onions, tomatoes, seeds, grapes, dried apricots, apples, coal, and unwrought lead. Junaid Altaf, a former president of the Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI), said the business community of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa endured increasingly difficult economic challenges due to the prolonged closure of the Pak-Afghan border.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-19
🔮 “Potato prices will go up in the coming months as demand will rise against limited supply,” Mr Sohni feared.
2026-10-19 · Dawn
The commercial cost of Afghan intransigence · assertive framing

Claims (31 extracted, 5 hedged)

• From $1.3 billion in FY24-25, bilateral trade has fallen to a little over $350 million in FY25-26 • Traders call for balancing security and commerce needs asserted
Traders → fall → security
The sprawling terminal at Torkham, built at the cost of several billion rupees, wears a deserted look as a protracted conflict continues to overshadow trade ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan. asserted
conflict → sprawl → Pakistan
Islamabad remains adamant that there can be no engagement with Kabul without tangible action against terrorists operating from its soil, but the relationship remains in suspended animation due to the intransigence of the Taliban regime. asserted
relationship → remain → regime
Industries in Pakistan, especially transport and pharmaceuticals, have been facing heavy losses since the border closed on Oct 12, 2025, following deadly clashes between the two countries. asserted
border → face → countries
Besides Torkham, other border crossings, including Kharlachi, Ghulam Khan and Angoor Adda in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Chaman in Balochistan, have also remained closed for all kinds of trade. asserted
crossings → include → trade
Figures released in July showed that Afghan Transit Trade, which stood at nearly 89,000 containers valued at $5 billion before the return of the Taliban, had plunged to just 11,592 containers worth $367 million in the outgoing fiscal year. asserted
which → release → year
According to data on bilateral trade, released by the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) earlier this year, Pak-Afghan trade witnessed a drop of 74pc in the last fiscal, from one year prior. uncertain
trade → accord → fiscal
Figures show that bilateral trade fell from $1.3bn in 2024-25 to $358m in 2025-26. asserted
trade → show → 2025
A 95pc decline was recorded in bilateral trade in 2026-27 compared with the previous year, according to the TDAP figures released in August. uncertain
decline → record → August
Pakistani exports to Afghanistan include pharmaceutical products, cement, plastics, rice, fruits and vegetables among others, while major imports include onions, tomatoes, seeds, grapes, dried apricots, apples, coal, and unwrought lead. Junaid Altaf, a former president of the Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI), said the business community of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa endured increasingly difficult economic challenges due to the prolonged closure of the Pak-Afghan border. asserted
community → include → border
“For a province already facing structural economic disadvantages, the closure has not merely disrupted a trade route, it has further weakened the economic opportunities on which its businesses, workers and border communities depend,” he deplored. asserted
he → face → which
Mr Altaf said that unlike Karachi and Lahore, Peshawar and the rest of KP faced higher logistics costs for many manufacturing and trading activities. asserted
Peshawar → say → activities
“Being far from seaports and major international shipping gateways adds to the cost of importing raw materials, transporting them to factories, manufacturing finished products and subsequently distributing those products across Pakistan or exporting them to international markets. asserted
Being → add → markets
Against this backdrop, the Pakistan-Afghanistan trade corridor has historically represented a major economic opportunity for KP, he said, highlighting the potential of KP to become a stronger pharmaceutical production and export centre. asserted
KP → represent → potential
The pharmaceutical sector accounted for approximately $130m in exports to Afghanistan in FY23-24, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. uncertain
sector → account → Statistics
This figure illustrates that the loss of access to the Afghan market is a significant commercial setback with implications for production, investment and employment. asserted
loss → illustrate → production
Saying that the KP business community deserved a clear and sustainable way forward, Mr Altaf suggested that the objective should not be trade at any cost, nor should it be indefinite economic isolation. uncertain
it → say → cost
“It should be secure borders, regulated trade, competitive industry and shared prosperity,” he opined. asserted
he → share → ?
Malik Sohni, president of the All Pakistan Agricultural Produce Traders Federation, said that Afghanistan was a huge market for Pakistani potatoes. asserted
Afghanistan → say → potatoes
Up to 50 trucks carrying potatoes used to cross into Afghanistan daily, while 25 trucks of green vegetables also passed daily, he said, adding that the border closure badly hit the potato market, reducing crop cultivation by almost half. asserted
closure → carry → half
“Potato prices will go up in the coming months as demand will rise against limited supply,” Mr Sohni feared. asserted
Sohni → go → supply
He claimed that he faced a loss of Rs180m when potato prices crashed after the sudden flare in hostilities. asserted
prices → claim → hostilities
He added that the border closure also affected Pakistani exports to Central Asia. asserted
closure → add → Asia
Besides exports and imports, a large number of people from across KP, particularly in Khyber, have been associated with the transport business and they have fallen on hard times as well. asserted
they → associate → times
Azeemullah, a transporter, said that due to the prolonged border closure, he had to sell three of his five trucks. asserted
he → say → trucks
“The transport sector of KP is nearly ruined,” he lamented, adding that diverting these trucks to other parts of the country was not economically viable. asserted
diverting → ruin → country
However, Fuad Ishaq, a Peshawar-based businessman and former president of the SCCI, held different views. asserted
Ishaq → base → views
“I am of the view that we cannot compromise our security for just $800m in trade a year.” asserted
we → compromise → trade
He said Afghanistan had a 45m population, roughly the same as KP, and the items normally exported there could be directed somewhere else. uncertain
items → say → KP
He claimed that cutting off ties with Afghanistan also reduced the burden on hospitals and schools in Pakistan, which he described as a positive development. asserted
he → claim → development
“We should have trade, but security comes first,” Mr Ishaq stressed. asserted
Ishaq → have → trade
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