What if the worst thing that can happen to a political party is to win an election?
asserted
that → happen → election
History is littered with unexpected wins — sweet victories — but are they really that sweet if they let a party overstay its welcome and trash its political capital and brand?
asserted
party → litter → capital
The Coalition cycled through three prime ministers and went to the election with a thin agenda.
asserted
Coalition → cycle → agenda
Morrison declared the result a miracle.
asserted
result → declare → ?
Three years later, the party had trashed its political capital and lost the 2022 election.
asserted
party → trash → election
An aging government secured a thumping win and with it, control of the Senate.
asserted
government → age → Senate
The extraordinary power it had been handed gave it the freedom to introduce WorkChoices, an industrial relations overhaul that became a political millstone, leading to Kevin Rudd's win in 2007, an election that also cost Howard his own seat.
asserted
that → hand → seat
In 1993 Paul Keating won what he famously called "the sweetest victory of all", securing a fifth consecutive term for Labor against John Hewson's Coalition.
asserted
he → win → Coalition
Just three years later Labor was decimated, languishing in the political wilderness until 2007.
asserted
Labor → decimate → 2007
This is not to argue that the voters got it wrong.
asserted
it → argue → ?
Voters always get it right.
asserted
it → get → ?
But rejecting the alternative is not the same as endorsing the status quo.
asserted
rejecting → reject → quo
An extra term can delay the reckoning that forces renewal and an autopsy on a loss.
asserted
that → delay → loss
Worse, it can breed a sense of invincibility that encourages leaders and senior ministers to believe their own hype, further detaching them from the issues affecting voters.
asserted
that → breed → voters
Speculation that Albanese is set to reshuffle his frontbench next year raises the question of whether he can avoid the fate of past governments.
asserted
he → set → governments
Another victory risks the government entering a third term without a clear agenda and renewed frontbench.
asserted
government → risk → agenda
He knows the danger of holding onto dead wood for too long.
asserted
He → know → wood
The prime minister last week told me on Afternoon Briefing he was not "spooked" by the 24-hour news cycle and poor polls.
asserted
he → tell → cycle
But inside the government there is an emerging view that unless the government develops a better economic narrative, a reshuffle will not be enough to turn the ship around.
asserted
reshuffle → be → ship
Reports of frustration with Treasurer Jim Chalmers inside the Caucus and the prime minister's office are adding to the pressure.
asserted
Reports → add → pressure
Industry Minister Tim Ayres yesterday downplayed tensions between Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers, denying the prime minister is frustrated with the treasurer amid the fallout over the ATO credit card surcharge ban.
asserted
minister → downplay → ban
The pair spent last week fending off reports that Albanese rolled Chalmers when he told a business dinner he had agreed to intervene over the ATO credit card ban following a text message from ACCI chief executive Andrew McKellar.
asserted
he → spend → McKellar
Asked on News24 on Sunday whether the two men got along, Senator Ayres said: "This is a cabinet-style government that's working very well.
asserted
that → ask → Sunday
"
"It's a real contrast to not just what's happening at the other end of the world, but a real contrast to what's happening on the other side of politics, which has been a total mess and has been since 2013," Senator Ayres said.
asserted
Ayres → happen → 2013
The credit card fiasco became murkier on Sunday after Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino conceded that the government knew in July that the Australian Taxation Office was considering stopping direct credit card payments in response to surcharge changes.
asserted
Office → become → changes
It gives more life to a story about the failure of the government to address a problem it saw coming but appeared to ignore without reading the obvious political ramifications.
asserted
it → give → ramifications
Summer reset
Senior Labor MPs believe the summer provides a crucial opportunity to reset the government.
asserted
summer → believe → government
Feverish speculation that frontbenchers including Andrew Charlton, Jenny McAllister, Daniel Mulino and Kristy McBain may be elevated is not a coincidence.
uncertain
frontbenchers → include → Charlton
The government needs new energy and to make better use of its talent.
asserted
government → need → talent
There is a view that MPs who have been in the parliament since the Rudd/Gillard years need to step aside from the ministry to allow the government a proper refresh.
asserted
who → be → refresh
On June 17, 2008, retiring Nationals senator Sandy Macdonald reflected on the Howard government's defeat in his valedictory speech: "I do feel that governments sometimes win one election too many."
asserted
governments → retire → election
He continued by arguing that Keating should not have won in 1993, before explaining that electorates eventually tire of governments and vote for change.
asserted
electorates → continue → change
Political scientists Alfred Cuzán and Richard Heggen examined election results in Australia, Canada, Germany and the United States and identified what they called the cruise-and-crash model.
asserted
they → examine → what
Their finding was that incumbent parties can maintain relatively stable voting support across multiple elections before experiencing a concentrated loss at the election that removes them from office.
asserted
that → maintain → office
For Labor, scraping across the line at the next election can't be the only measure of success.
asserted
scraping → scrap → success
It needs to deliver this term and go to the next election with a clear vision of what it will do next.
asserted
it → need → what
Simply not being those opposite won't cut it.
asserted
being → cut → it
The Aporia