Will former treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat in the teal wave, use Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson's campaign as a soft launch of his own tilt to return to Canberra?
asserted
who → lose → Canberra
Jess and Josh on the hustings might offer moderate Liberals the image they have been yearning for.
uncertain
they → offer → image
If the Liberals can win a majority in the Victorian state election, which polls suggest will be hard but something both Labor and Liberal strategists believe is still possible, it may provide a rejuvenation — a green shoot, if you will — of the Liberal brand.
uncertain
you → win → brand
With fewer than 50 days until Victorians cast their votes, the race is operating on two levels: the macro, and the subterranean.
asserted
race → cast → levels
The race is becoming a proxy war on several fronts that are less obvious but nationally significant.
asserted
that → become → fronts
Rumbles in the ranks
So what does a daily three-way contest between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation look like?
asserted
contest → look → Labor
At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Brisbane this weekend, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor played second fiddle to Hanson.
asserted
Taylor → play → Hanson
How often does Hanson come to Victoria to get on the hustings, and what are the consequences of her involvement?
asserted
consequences → come → involvement
It looks like becoming a contest far from traditional, with political reverberations far beyond the border.
asserted
It → look → border
But both parties have problems in their own ranks.
asserted
parties → have → ranks
He has to convince voters he offers something different from the government he helped run.
asserted
he → have → government
Labor has a habit of handing the leadership to a woman when the party is on its last legs: Joan Kirner in Victoria, Kristina Keneally in New South Wales.
asserted
party → have → Wales
They also handed it to Jacinta Allan, but all she did was remind voters of Daniel Andrews.
asserted
she → hand → Andrews
He continued to loom over her leadership.
asserted
He → continue → leadership
In Canberra, the Liberal Party is facing an almost existential identity crisis as it tries to peel back votes from One Nation.
asserted
it → face → Nation
Taylor is still trying to find his line and length on what his alternative offer to voters is — part Hansonism, part agrarian conservative with an Oxford pedigree.
asserted
offer → try → pedigree
Party strategists see Wilson as what the brand needs to win back heartland seats and appeal to frustrated Labor voters.
asserted
brand → see → voters
She offers a return to traditional small-l liberal values, with a focus on the economy, not culture wars.
asserted
She → offer → economy
Voters want someone who will get on with fixing the basics: potholes, housing, hospitals and the cost of living.
asserted
who → want → living
For most people, those basics will determine how they vote.
asserted
they → determine → people
Everything else starts to fall into the fringe basket; you would be hard-pressed to find someone with a mortgage and a commute from the suburbs whose first thought in the morning is the politics of transgender toilets.
asserted
thought → start → toilets
That could make life difficult for both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Taylor.
uncertain
life → make → Albanese
One Nation threatens both major parties; it has already picked up Secret Harbour from Labor at a state by-election in Western Australia.
asserted
it → threaten → Australia
The risk of disgruntled Labor voters going straight to One Nation rather than parking their vote with the Liberals can be hard for people in Canberra to fathom.
asserted
people → go → Canberra
The answer is not that complex: they are fed up.
asserted
they → feed → ?
To those voters, One Nation sounds like the only party that cares about the same things they are worried about.
asserted
they → sound → things
The more Taylor talks about fringe issues and culture wars, the more he helps One Nation appear to be the only party interested in voters' concerns.
asserted
Nation → talk → concerns
Even his migration policy shows how beholden he is, whether he understands it or not, to One Nation.
asserted
he → show → Nation
LoadingAI in the campaign
AI adds another complication.
asserted
AI → add → complication
Labor strategists will have PTSD at the mention of death taxes.
asserted
strategists → have → taxes
Labor's own 2019 election review found its rebuttals helped amplify the scare campaign.
asserted
rebuttals → find → campaign
The more they spoke about it, the more real they made it.
asserted
they → speak → it
The more they tried to kill it, the more they fed it.
asserted
they → try → it
But AI's role is not confined to bots and disinformation.
asserted
role → confine → bots
People are using it as the new Google — to plan trips, look things up, and to make sense of information.
asserted
People → use → information
That means people will be asking Claude, ChatGPT or whichever model they use about policies and political parties.
asserted
they → mean → policies
What happens when they start asking these models who to vote for?
asserted
they → happen → who
Research from digital marketing agency Topham Guerin points to another problem: AI can leave One Nation out of the answer.
asserted
AI → point → answer
In 200 answers comparing parties on Victorian election issues, the models mentioned Labor in all, the Liberals and Nationals in 199 each, the Greens in 178, and One Nation in just 43.
asserted
models → compare → 43
Across 155 recorded comparison answers, only four systems in seven searched for One Nation.
asserted
systems → record → Nation
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
