The historically working-class Parisian neighborhood of Belleville has gentrified in recent years.
asserted
neighborhood → gentrifie → years
It was here that Raphael Glucksmann, a member of the European Parliament for France's center-left Socialists, celebrated his victory in the party's presidential primary on October 11.
asserted
Glucksmann → celebrate → October
Two rounds of voting had been anticipated, but the 46-year-old son of philosopher and essayist Andre Glucksmann triumphed in the first round with a convincing 66% of the vote and will be the Socialist candidate in France's 2027 presidential election.
asserted
son → anticipate → election
As he left the Cantine de Belleville restaurant, Glucksmann was flour-bombed by an unidentified assailant.
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Glucksmann → leave → assailant
The following morning, he called on his rival, the left-wing French populist Jean-Luc Melenchon, to condemn attacks carried out by his supporters, though it is not clear that the attacker was indeed a supporter of Melenchon's La France Insoumise (LFI).
asserted
attacker → call → Insoumise
The incident has highlighted the issue set to dog Glucksmann's presidential candidacy over the coming weeks: How can he win over Melenchon's supporters if he refuses to work with their candidate?
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he → highlight → candidate
Gluckmann's rapid rise
"Where do you stand on Melenchon?"
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you → stand → Melenchon
That was the question that dominated much of the Socialists' primary campaign.
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that → dominate → campaign
Party leader Olivier Faure spoke in favor of leaving the door open for cooperation with the LFI, but Glucksmann called for a clear break with the far left.
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Glucksmann → speak → left
His decisive victory is therefore also seen as a vote in favor of a clear demarcation.
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victory → see → demarcation
The other primary candidates questioned Glucksmann's political experience.
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candidates → question → experience
Segolene Royal, a previous presidential candidate, compared his bid for the Elysee with that of an "intern" wanting to take charge of a company.
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Royal → compare → company
She said Glucksmann had no experience in government or even running a local authority.
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Glucksmann → say → authority
A poll by Toluna Harris Interactive, published the day after his win, projects that he would win 10–11% of the vote.
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he → publish → vote
The same poll put Melenchon on 18%, meaning the far-left man would be much more likely to reach the runoff.
asserted
man → put → runoff
But the survey was conducted before Glucksmann won the primary, and so does not take into account any potential boost the nomination may give him.
uncertain
nomination → conduct → him
Still, 10% would be an improvement on the Socialists' performance in the last presidential election in 2022, when their candidate Anne Hidalgo won just 1.75% of the national vote.
asserted
candidate → win → vote
There is also the complication that the Socialists are banking on a man who is not even a party member to lead them from irrelevance.
asserted
who → be → irrelevance
Raphael Glucksmann actually belongs to a small center-left party called Place Publique.
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Glucksmann → belong → party
Melenchon's youth appeal
Glucksmann has his work cut out for him — especially with young people.
asserted
work → have → people
In an Ipsos survey in September, which posited Glucksmann as the social-democratic candidate and Edouard Philippe as the only candidate from the political center, Melenchon scored 41% among the under-25s.
asserted
Melenchon → posit → under-25s
Meanwhile, 20% of this age group supported the far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen.
asserted
% → support → nationalist
France's young electorate is politically divided, but Melenchon still dominates on the left.
asserted
Melenchon → divide → left
The 75-year-old is currently rallying alongside the students whose protests have drawn international attention.
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protests → rally → attention
At a rally near Clermont-Ferrand in central France , he expressed solidarity with their movement and reiterated his calls for lowering the voting age to 16 and abolishing Parcoursup, France's national admissions procedure for higher education.
asserted
he → express → education
In an analysis for the Fondation Jean-Jaures, a Socialist-aligned think tank, the political scientist Antoine Bristielle distinguishes between a core group of committed LFI voters and the broader left.
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scientist → align → voters
Melenchon's most loyal supporters, he says, are often young, educated city-dwellers, and many are under a lot of financial pressure.
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many → say → pressure
Four in ten households in this group live on a net monthly income of less than €2,000 ($2,200).
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households → live → 2,000
Bristielle estimates that just under a third of the left-wing electorate in his study care more about a left-wing victory than their allegiance to any particular party.
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third → estimate → party
Almost half of the people in this group are younger than 35, and would consider voting for the Socialists, the Greens, or LFI.
asserted
half → consider → Socialists
Redistribution and an active government are important to them, but most would prefer politicians who are willing to compromise.
asserted
who → prefer → politicians
The pattern recently observed in Germany, where young women are more likely to vote for the left and young men for the right, does not apply in France.
asserted
women → observe → France
Political scientists Anja Durovic, Nonna Mayer and Noemie Piolat found that in the 2024 European and parliamentary elections, young French women were not significantly more likely to vote for the left, or less likely to vote for the far right, than men of the same age.
asserted
women → find → age
It remains to be seen whether this pattern will be replicated in the 2027 presidential election.
asserted
pattern → remain → election
Glucksmann says he would ease the burden on earned income by reducing France's CSG social security tax while increasing taxes on inheritances worth more than €2 million.
asserted
he → say → inheritances
He also presents himself as a committed supporter of European integration, while Melenchon has called the EU a neoliberal institution.
asserted
Melenchon → present → EU
Glucksmann's political profile combines social policy demands with foreign policy positions that could also appeal to voters from the camp of the current president, Emmanuel Macron.
uncertain
that → combine → president
Glucksmann favors decisive support for Kyiv.
asserted
Glucksmann → favor → Kyiv
Manon Aubry, a member of the European Parliament for Melenchon's LFI, says her party supports military assistance only under certain conditions, namely: The provision of aid to Ukraine must first be subject to democratic debate; it must not enable attacks deep inside Russian territory; and it must not weaken France's own defense capabilities.
asserted
it → say → capabilities
In 2024, LFI MPs voted against the French–Ukrainian security agreement.
asserted
MPs → vote → agreement
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
