Republican Ken Paxton benefits from the state's overall Republican leanings, while Democrat
is boosted by voters' economic concerns and higher perceptions of personal character to serve as senator.
asserted
Democrat → benefit → senator
standing is helped by more Democrats saying they'll definitely
.
asserted
they → help → Democrats
That leaves the dynamic in the closing weeks very much up for grabs.
asserted
That → leave → grabs
If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.
uncertain
it → decide → ?
The bulk of Paxton's voters are backing him either because he's the GOP nominee or to oppose Talarico, and because they want to support President Trump.
asserted
they → back → Trump
Where Talarico does well
Some of the economic headwinds facing Republicans nationally are showing up here.
asserted
Some → face → Republicans
The
is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say they've been negatively affected by .
asserted
they → say → voters
Among these voters, Talarico enjoys a sizable lead over Paxton.
asserted
Talarico → enjoy → Paxton
And more see Talarico as having the right character to serve as senator.
asserted
more → see → senator
Personal qualities matter far more to Talarico's backers than to Paxton's.
asserted
qualities → matter → Paxton
Talarico gets 5% of those who identify as Republicans.
asserted
who → get → Republicans
On a wider scale, he draws 9% of people who — regardless of their own party affiliation — say they never vote for Democrats, but will this time.
asserted
they → draw → Democrats
Where Paxton does well
asserted
Paxton → do → ?
But some things are different in Texas than in the country overall: The Trump administration's deportation program gets more support in Texas, compared to the
and that advantages Paxton.
asserted
that → get → Paxton
And outside the economic considerations, Republicans say they feel Talarico represents policies that are a threat to their culture and way of life.
asserted
that → say → life
(Democrats, for their part, feel the same about Paxton.)
asserted
Democrats → feel → Paxton
A lot of Paxton's backing from Republicans is an effort to support Trump.
asserted
lot → support → Trump
And in a state where few voters describe themselves as liberal, Talarico is viewed as "very liberal" by nearly half.
asserted
Talarico → describe → half
When they describe Talarico this way, they're voting for Paxton.
asserted
they → describe → Paxton
Demographics on vote
Texas just has a lot more Republicans than Democrats.
asserted
Texas → have → Democrats
That means Talarico needs to do overwhelmingly well with independents and get some vote shift among GOPers, or activate enough new voters to offset that.
asserted
Talarico → mean → that
He also needs strong turnout from younger voters, who today say they back him in large percentages.
asserted
they → need → percentages
Historically, younger voters don't typically turn out at as high a rate as older voters do.
asserted
voters → turn → rate
Latino voters in Texas swung toward Trump in 2024, but most are now backing Democrat Talarico.
asserted
most → swing → Talarico
are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship or difficult, and most of them do not think Paxton has the right personal character to serve as a senator.
asserted
Paxton → say → senator
The race for governor
Incumbent Greg Abbott has an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the race for governor.
asserted
Abbott → have → governor
Abbott also receives the backing of 7% of Talarico voters.
asserted
Abbott → receive → voters
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,492 registered voters in Texas interviewed between October 8-16, 2026.
asserted
survey → conduct → October
The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on U.S. Census data, as well as to 2024 presidential vote.
uncertain
sample → weight → vote
The margin of error is ± 3.4 points for the sample of registered voters, and ± 3.5 points for likely voters.
asserted
margin → register → voters
The Aporia
