Treaty is on the ballot in the Victorian election. Whatever the outcome, it cannot be unmade

Read the original at The Sydney Morning Herald ↗
Cite

Grand, C. L. (2026, October 18). Treaty is on the ballot in the Victorian election. Whatever the outcome, it cannot be unmade. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/treaty-is-on-the-ballot-in-the-victorian-election-whatever-the-outcome-it-cannot-be-unmade-20261018-p6163o.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

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The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-18 · by Chip Le Grand

Quick Summary

In Victoria's upcoming election, First Peoples’ Assembly member Ngarra Murray emphasizes the cultural significance and binding nature of a statewide treaty signed less than a year ago at John Cain Arena in Melbourne. The treaty cannot be undone by repealing legislation since it is based on mutual agreement between Aboriginal people and state representatives. Despite efforts to frame treaty repeal as an electoral issue, only 1% of Victoria's population identifies as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, making the debate contentious primarily within certain electorates like Kew, where opposition leader Jess Wilson faces criticism for her stance from both progressive voters and far-right groups.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-18, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In the upcoming Victorian election, a treaty signed by Aboriginal leaders and former politicians to establish a new relationship between Indigenous peoples and the government cannot be easily repealed if a Coalition government wins. Jess Wilson, the Coalition leader, has promised to undo the laws enacting the treaty within her first 100 days in office, but Ngarra Murray, who co-chaired the First Peoples’ Assembly, argues that only those who physically and symbolically agreed to the treaty can reverse it. The treaty established Gellung Warl as an independent statutory body authorized to make decisions on behalf of Indigenous people in Victoria, consult with the government, and hold policies accountable. According to the Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office, dismantling this framework would save the state budget $247.8 million over four years, but doing so is legally and culturally complex due to the symbolic significance of the treaty's ratification process.

Written for “Treaty On Victorian Election Ballot” on 2026-10-18, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans left for article 88108 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-18

Story

📰 Treaty On Victorian Election Ballot
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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Claims extracted
91
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
5 of 91 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-18 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 4011 article(s) · 11 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 11 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Chip Le Grand
8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 According to Victoria’s Parliamentary Budget Office, dismantling the entire statutory framework associated with treaty would save the state’s budget $247.8 million over the four years of the next government.
🔮 While these numbers, if replicated on November 28, would almost certainly deliver a change of government, it is less clear whether the Coalition would be able to form a majority government without the help of One Nation or another minor party.
🔮 Under Wilson’s SurgerySooner pledge, a Coalition government would use public funds to pay for an additional 25,000 elective surgeries in private hospitals over the next four years at no cost to patients.
🔮 When Premier Ben Carroll was on Monday asked if he would accept the support of Greens MPs in parliament if it meant staying in power after November’s state election, he said he’d throw the keys back.
🔮 He declared it his personal mission to rebuild Australia’s relationship with its Jewish people so that no young Jew could doubt whether they belonged here.
🔮 Had they done so, Guy would have probably been less scornful in his appraisal of the need for a new train station at Keilor East when he was questioned about it, by this reporter, shortly after Labor’s announcement.
🔮 Victoria will finally have an anti-corruption watchdog with the authority and powers it needs to do its job after the parliament on its last sitting day before the state election agreed to the most substantial changes to IBAC since its inception.
🔮 Just as importantly, Commissioner Chris Kourakis has signalled his willingness to stand back and interrogate some bigger, long-overdue questions about how we got here.
2026-09-23 · assertive framing · Royal commission hints at original sin of Big Build
Also by Chip Le Grand
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 8 articles by Chip Le Grand →

Topics

Aboriginal Coalition Kew Melbourne Victoria

Subjects

Victoria GPE · 5× Aboriginal NORP · 3× Kew GPE · 3× Māori NORP · 3× Wilson PERSON · 3× Coalition ORG · 2× First Peoples NORP · 2× Jess Wilson’s PERSON · 2× Melbourne GPE · 2× Murray PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Why would you sacrifice treaty chasing votes from One Nation?” Where the Treaty of Waitangi is an agreement on a broad set of principles, the Victorian treaty is a more prescriptive agreement that sets out the design and powers of Gellung Warl, an independent statutory body authorised to make decisions on behalf of First Peoples in Victoria, consult and advise government and hold their policies to account.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-18
🔮 According to Victoria’s Parliamentary Budget Office, dismantling the entire statutory framework associated with treaty would save the state’s budget $247.8 million over the four years of the next government.
2026-10-18 · The Sydney Morning Herald
Treaty is on the ballot in the Victorian election. Whatever the outcome, it cannot be unmade · assertive framing

Claims (91 extracted, 5 hedged)

Less than a year ago, on a stage in the middle of Melbourne’s John Cain Arena, Ngarra Murray placed her ochre-stained palm onto a kangaroo skin alongside the imprints of other First Peoples’ Assembly members. asserted
Murray → place → members
This was the cultural assent given by Aboriginal people to an historic, statewide treaty setting out the terms of a new relationship between black and white Victoria. asserted
This → give → Victoria
The pelt also carries the prints of former premier Jacinta Allan and minister for treaty Natalie Hutchins, two women who have since quit politics but had a hand, both literally and figurative, in the most profound social policy change during Labor’s 12 years in office. asserted
who → carry → office
Murray, who was then co-chairing the assembly alongside Rueben Berg, says the kangaroo skin and the authorising power it represents is essential to understanding treaty. asserted
it → co → treaty
It also helps explain why Jess Wilson’s promise to repeal within the first 100 days of a Coalition government the laws enacting treaty can go only so far. asserted
promise → help → treaty
“Only the people who put their handprints on that treaty can undo that relationship,” says Murray, now retired from the assembly. asserted
Murray → put → assembly
“That is an agreement we made in good faith with the state. asserted
we → make → state
They can repeal the legislation but they can’t repeal the reason why we did it.” asserted
we → repeal → it
Victoria’s treaty, the first of its kind reached between First Peoples and the Crown in Australia, has gained an oversized prominence in this state election. asserted
treaty → reach → election
According to the last Census, only 1 per cent of people living in Victoria identify as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. uncertain
cent → accord → Victoria
According to Victoria’s Parliamentary Budget Office, dismantling the entire statutory framework associated with treaty would save the state’s budget $247.8 million over the four years of the next government. uncertain
dismantling → accord → government
The Coalition over the same time frame has pledged to spend $5 billion fixing potholes. asserted
Coalition → pledge → potholes
In Jess Wilson’s seat of Kew, the opposition leader is being buffeted from both sides of a fierce treaty debate. asserted
leader → buffet → debate
Teal challenger Sophie Torney and Common Threads, a First Peoples’ activist group, are highlighting the tension they see between Wilson’s pledge to abolish treaty and the progressive sensitivities of traditional, small-l Liberal voters in her electorate. asserted
they → highlight → electorate
One Nation’s Victorian leader Warren Pickering is targeting the social media accounts of Kew voters with ads questioning whether Wilson can be trusted to get rid of treaty – an issue that feeds into Pauline Hanson’s 30-year-old grievance about special treatment for Aboriginal people. asserted
that → target → people
Last weekend, TWK Research, a Melbourne-based research company used by political pollsters, was cold-calling voters in Kew, quizzing them about their voting intentions and attitudes towards treaty. asserted
Research → base → treaty
The sequence of leading questions suggests whoever commissioned the poll is worried about treaty being a drag on Wilson’s vote. uncertain
treaty → lead → vote
The Liberal Party’s campaign headquarters did not confirm or deny knowledge of the survey. asserted
headquarters → confirm → survey
Amid this noisy, if localised political spat, few people have stopped to consider what the promise to scrap treaty means. asserted
what → localise → means
Although treaty is new to Australia, it is well established in other common law countries, most notably New Zealand. asserted
it → establish → countries
The Māori experience is that, while governments can make and unmake laws designed to give legal force to treaty agreements, they cannot undo the agreements themselves. asserted
they → make → agreements
In Victoria, a government can repeal the Statewide Treaty Act that provides statutory authority and public funding for Gellung Warl, the principal architecture of treaty, but it cannot unilaterally unmake the agreement from which the legislation derives. asserted
legislation → repeal → which
Kelvin Davis, a former deputy leader of the New Zealand Labour Party, served as the minister for Māori Crown relations under the Jacinda Ardern government. asserted
Davis → serve → government
He belongs to the Ngāpuhi tribe whose traditional lands include Waitangi, the North Island town where, in 1840, Māori chiefs entered into a treaty with the British government. asserted
chiefs → belong → government
Nearly two centuries on, the legal effect of that treaty is still being fiercely contested ahead of next month’s New Zealand election. asserted
effect → contest → election
Davis says laws are always subject to change but Victoria’s treaty, like the Treaty of Waitangi, stands on its own mana, a Māori term for spiritual authority or power. asserted
treaty → say → authority
“Any parliament around the world has the right to make laws that they see fit and to repeal laws,” Davis tells The Age. asserted
Davis → have → Age
“So they’ve got the right to repeal the law, the Statewide Treaty Act. asserted
they → get → law
But that doesn’t mean that the treaty just disappears. asserted
treaty → mean → ?
“My advice to Victorians is ignore the treaty at your peril. asserted
advice → ignore → peril
As happened in New Zealand, governments throughout the decades after treaty was signed tried to hide it, push it into under the carpet, never to be heard from again. asserted
treaty → happen → carpet
Māori did not forget. asserted
Māori → forget → ?
We used white man’s processes to make sure that it reclaimed its status, and it is now costing New Zealand government billions to rectify all the broken commitments and promises. asserted
it → use → commitments
“They’ve got all these commitments in the Victorian treaty. asserted
They → get → treaty
They’re going to want those commitments to be fulfilled and they’ll just keep pushing. asserted
they → go → ?
They will say: ‘This is our treaty, it is signed and if you renege, we’re going to sue you.’ asserted
we → say → you
“I hope that’s what they say and do.” asserted
they → hope → what
The Victorian Treaty Authority was established before the last state election as an independent body to oversee treaty negotiations. asserted
Authority → establish → negotiations
Its chair Jidah Clark says that here, like New Zealand, treaty reaches beyond its enabling legislation. asserted
treaty → say → legislation
“The treaty itself is much more than a piece of legislation,” he explains. asserted
he → explain → legislation
…and 51 more, not listed.
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