SNP says campaign for next referendum on independence ‘has already begun’

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
Cite

Greenfield, P. (2026, October 17). SNP says campaign for next referendum on independence ‘has already begun’. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/oct/17/snp-campaign-second-referendum-independence-john-swinney

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Guardian · collected 2026-10-17 · by Patrick Greenfield

Quick Summary

John Swinney, deputy first minister of Scotland, declared during the SNP party conference in Aberdeen that the campaign for Scottish independence has already commenced. He announced a new “Choose Scotland” initiative backed by significant funding to build support for a second referendum on independence. Leading SNP figures also suggested that in a hung parliament scenario, where no single party holds a majority, their party could hold the balance of power and potentially secure another independence vote. Recent polling indicates potential gains for the SNP at the expense of Labour, with estimates ranging from 40 to 50 MPs in the next general election.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-17, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

On October 17, 2026, John Swinney, the First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), addressed the SNP conference in Aberdeen, asserting that "the stars are aligning" for Scottish independence. He emphasized this by highlighting recent nationalist victories across Wales and Northern Ireland. Despite failing to secure an overall majority in May's Holyrood election, Swinney declared 2026 a turning point towards Scotland’s statehood and vowed to launch the SNP's "most sophisticated campaign ever," backed by a substantial budget. The campaign aims to build consensus for independence through nationwide efforts, with Swinney personally driven by his role as both First Minister and father, expressing emotional commitment to leaving Scotland better for future generations.

Written for “Scottish Independence Campaign Heats Up” on 2026-10-17, grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans left for article 87358 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-17

Story

📰 Scottish Independence Campaign Heats Up
Politics · 4 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 3 of 15 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles discuss John Swinney's speech at the SNP conference on October 16, 2026, where he talks about pushing for another independence referendum.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 15% hedged 3 of 20 📰 publisher trust 69
“Both articles describe John Swinney's keynote speech at the SNP conference on October 17, 2026, in Aberdeen, where he discusses the campaign for Scottish independence.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 2 of 30 📰 publisher trust 67
“Both articles describe John Swinney's keynote speech at the SNP conference on October 17, 2026, announcing the start of a new drive for Scottish independence.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 6 📰 publisher trust 67
“While both articles discuss the SNP's campaign for Scottish independence, they describe different parts of the overall effort and occur at distinct times.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 1 of 9 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss different speeches and statements made during the SNP party conference, not the same specific incident.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 32 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles discuss related topics at the same event, but describe different speeches and keynotes given by different officials.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 1 of 9 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles describe different speeches given at the SNP conference, but not the same specific incident or time.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 14% hedged 5 of 35 📰 publisher trust 69
“Article A discusses the broader political context and gatherings of UK politicians related to Scotland, while Article B focuses specifically on John Swinney's announcement during the SNP conference about the campaign for a second independence referendum.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 1 of 14 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss different aspects of Scottish politics and refer to distinct occasions involving the SNP.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 10% hedged 4 of 42 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss different aspects of the SNP conference, with Article A focusing on Andy Burnham's visit overshadowing the event and Article B reporting on John Swinney's keynote address announcing the independence referendum campaign.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
32
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
12%
4 of 32 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
67/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
4
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-17 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 1996 article(s) · 5 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 5 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Patrick Greenfield
7 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On Saturday, the Scottish first minister said that the SNP would launch its “most sophisticated campaign in history” to convince Scottish of the benefits of independence, backed by “a six-figure war chest”.
🔮 But by the time John Swinney stands up to address members on Saturday afternoon in Aberdeen to reinvigorate the case for a second independence referendum, his party may regret giving the UK prime minister so much prominence in the conference buildup.
🔮 Soon the September sunshine will give way to the storms and gales of the Scottish winter, which can bring hundreds of glass panels crashing to the greenhouse floor on the windiest days.
🔮 He would expose himself to her, she said, and began touching her with different parts of his body, including his penis.
🔮 When Sophie Rose Jenkins announced she would not return to St Andrews University this academic year because of her experiences of classism on campus, she did not expect much of a response.
🔮 In 2025, an investigation by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung found that many animals delivered to Vantara arrived through countries with opaque wildlife trading networks such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United Arab Emirates, raising concerns that endangered species may have been illegally trafficked.
🔮 In his acceptance speech, Marra he would spend time reconnecting with Scottish voters.
2026-09-19 · assertive framing · Michael Marra elected as Scottish Labour leader
Also by Patrick Greenfield
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 7 articles by Patrick Greenfield →

Topics

Aberdeen SNP Scotland Scottish Wales

Subjects

SNP ORG · 8× Scottish NORP · 5× Scotland GPE · 4× Aberdeen GPE · 3× John Swinney PERSON · 2× Labour ORG · 2× Swinney PERSON · 2× Wales GPE · 2× Westminster ORG · 2× Choose Scotland ORG · 1×

Narrative

John Swinney told the SNP party conference in Aberdeen that the “stars were aligning” for the pro-independence cause, arguing that nationalist first ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland had panicked pro-union parties. “For centuries, people in the Celtic nations have been told that we are not good enough.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-17
🔮 On Saturday, the Scottish first minister said that the SNP would launch its “most sophisticated campaign in history” to convince Scottish of the benefits of independence, backed by “a six-figure war chest”.

Claims (32 extracted, 4 hedged)

John Swinney has said that the second referendum campaign for Scottish independence “has already begun”, revealing a nationwide effort to renew the argument for leaving the UK in his keynote address to the SNP party conference. asserted
campaign → say → conference
On Saturday, the Scottish first minister said that the SNP would launch its “most sophisticated campaign in history” to convince Scottish of the benefits of independence, backed by “a six-figure war chest”. asserted
SNP → say → chest
Called Choose Scotland, the campaign aims to build the consensus for leaving the union. asserted
campaign → call → union
John Swinney told the SNP party conference in Aberdeen that the “stars were aligning” for the pro-independence cause, arguing that nationalist first ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland had panicked pro-union parties. “For centuries, people in the Celtic nations have been told that we are not good enough. asserted
we → tell → nations
Our languages were derided, our cultures suppressed, our histories rewritten,” he said. asserted
he → deride → ?
“When I stood on a stage recently with pro-independence leaders from Wales and Ireland, it certainly upset some of our opponents. asserted
it → stand → opponents
Watching us pledge to work together and seeing the love and respect we feel for each other’s nations. asserted
we → watch → nations
Never again can they portray us as separatists.” asserted
they → portray → separatists
During the event in Aberdeen, leading SNP figures said that a hung Westminster parliament is the most realistic path to securing a second independence referendum in Scotland as the nationalists would probably “hold the balance of power” in forming a future progressive government. asserted
nationalists → lead → government
The party currently holds just eight MPs in parliament, but recent polling indicates that if a vote was held today, that number would surge at the Labour party’s expense in Scotland, although there is uncertainty surrounding how many seats they would gain. asserted
they → hold → seats
Deputy first minister Jenny Gilruth said that her party would welcome an early general election to reenergise the push for independence. asserted
party → say → independence
“The polling, of course, suggests that the SNP would hold the balance of power in a hung parliament and really strong support for the SNP across the country allowing us to regain a number of seats,” she said. uncertain
she → suggest → seats
The sentiment was echoed by Lara Bird, the MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, who told a podcast by the pro-independence newspaper The National that they could negotiate another poll if the overall results were tight. uncertain
results → echo → poll
“We have a really great opportunity at the next general election to be in a position where that negotiation can seriously start with the next iteration of the Westminster government, whether we have a hung parliament, which is looking very likely, or different coalitions. asserted
which → have → parliament
Perhaps now we are talking about a Lib Dem-Labour coalition. asserted
we → talk → coalition
The SNP are polled at getting somewhere between 40 and 50 MPs at the general election. asserted
SNP → poll → election
That’s huge. asserted
That → ’ → ?
Let’s put it to Westminster and put the onus on them to meet us at the table and set that plan out for us,” she said. asserted
she → put → us
The latest MRP polling by Electoral Calculus this week predicted a narrow Labour victory, with the SNP winning 28 seats, although previous polls have indicated they could win even more. uncertain
they → predict → more
In a visit to Lanarkshire on Friday, UK prime minister Andy Burnham said the Scottish government needed to “move beyond” the question of independence while offering to work more closely on devolving power from Holyrood with Swinney’s administration. asserted
government → say → administration
The Westminster government would have to grant a second vote on Scottish independence. asserted
government → have → independence
“I just feel we all have to move beyond the constitutional questions. asserted
we → feel → questions
In my view, people in Scotland are suffering the cost of living crisis, like they are in England and everywhere else. asserted
they → suffer → England
And I think our job is to focus on the practicalities, to focus on solutions for people. asserted
job → think → people
Right now, too much time is wasted on those dramas. asserted
time → waste → dramas
It consumes too much energy,” he said, when asked about the issue. asserted
he → consume → issue
Although it is not in Swinney’s power to call a second independence referendum, he told the conference in Aberdeen that another vote could happen sooner than expected. uncertain
vote → call → Aberdeen
“Our independence is very close,” he said. asserted
he → say → ?
I will always want the very best for the people living in England, Wales and across Ireland. asserted
I → want → Ireland
And those that try to hold on to the past fail to grasp the opportunities of the future. asserted
that → try → future
In this period of history, the nations of the United Kingdom are evolving into a new relationship. asserted
nations → evolve → relationship
That is something to welcome,” he said. asserted
he → welcome → ?
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support