NEW YORK (AP) — More than seven months into the U.S. war with Iran, sharply higher fuel prices are making it more expensive to drive and fly and adding to the cost of some goods, prolonging the strain on American households as the midterm elections approach.
asserted
elections → make → households
Motorists and airline passengers have borne the clearest consequences as the fighting disrupts Middle East oil shipments.
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fighting → bear → shipments
Some companies have raised delivery charges or prices on selected products.
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companies → raise → products
Yet the higher cost of making and moving goods has not translated into across-the-board price increases at stores.
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cost → make → stores
Shoppers may not be spared indefinitely, though.
uncertain
Shoppers → spar → ?
Many companies have absorbed at least part of their higher production and transportation costs.
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companies → absorb → costs
A September jump in wholesale prices suggests some businesses may eventually charge more if fuel prices stay elevated.
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prices → suggest → more
The chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, estimated this week that the war has cost the average U.S. household the equivalent of almost $2,000, including $1,100 in higher energy prices, $540 in higher interest rates and $360 in military costs.
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war → estimate → costs
The energy portion is growing by $50 a week at current fuel prices, Zandi said.
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Zandi → grow → prices
Here’s a look at price changes since the war began and which goods and services could be most susceptible to increases in the months ahead:
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goods → ’ → months
Filling up fuel tanks is noticeably more expensive
BEFORE THE WAR: Regular gasoline averaged $2.98 a gallon nationwide and diesel $3.76 almost eight months ago, according to AAA.
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diesel → fill → AAA
Gas peaked at $4.56 in May, below its 2022 record, while diesel reached a record $6.53 in September.
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diesel → peak → September
WHAT’S REACHED CONSUMERS:
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WHAT → reach → CONSUMERS
On Friday, the national average stood at $4.33 a gallon for gasoline, or 45% above its prewar level, and was up 68% for diesel at $6.33, AAA reported.
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AAA → stand → 6.33
Gas typically costs less in the fall, and this is the first October a gallon of regular gas has cost more than $4 on average, it said.
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it → cost → 4
Expensive diesel is less apparent to most U.S. residents but contributes to overall inflation by raising the cost of moving goods.
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diesel → contribute → goods
WHAT COULD COME NEXT:
uncertain
WHAT → come → ?
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous and constrained, prolonging uncertainty over oil supplies and fuel prices.
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Shipping → remain → supplies
The Energy Information Administration said this month that it expected winter heating costs to be 21% higher for the roughly 3% of households that rely on heating oil, most of them in the Northeast, assuming the weather is mild.
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weather → say → Northeast
Higher airfares are hard to escape too
BEFORE THE WAR:
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airfares → escape → WAR
Jet fuel averaged $99 a barrel worldwide before the war, doubled to $209 in April and climbed back to nearly $195 in September after a spring decline, according to the International Air Transport Association.
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fuel → average → Association
WHAT’S REACHED CONSUMERS:
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WHAT → reach → CONSUMERS
Airlines have raised ticket prices and fees, trimmed schedules and shelved plans to add flights.
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Airlines → raise → flights
Airfares cost about 22% more in September than they did a year earlier, the consumer price index showed.
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index → cost → September
Average domestic airfares rose from $405 in late 2025 to $445 in the April through June period of this year, excluding optional fees, according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
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airfares → rise → Statistics
WHAT COULD COME NEXT:
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WHAT → come → ?
Fuel price volatility makes it harder for airlines to plan and could discourage them from lowering fares even when fuel prices start to fall, analysts said.
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analysts → make → fares
United Airlines pulled some December flights and warned of further possible cuts in 2027.
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Airlines → pull → 2027
Fewer available seats could mean less pressure to hold ticket prices down.
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seats → mean → prices
Higher fares have covered substantial portions of higher fuel costs for domestic airlines but not enough to prevent a squeeze on their third-quarter profits, according to consensus estimates.
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fares → cover → estimates
Any growth in grocery prices pains Americans after multiple years of food inflation
BEFORE THE WAR:
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growth → pain → WAR
The U.S. Department of Agriculture initially expected grocery prices to rise 1.7% this year, below the historical annual average.
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prices → expect → average
USDA now expects a still comparatively modest 2.4% increase.
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USDA → expect → increase
WHAT HAS REACHED CONSUMERS:
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WHAT → reach → CONSUMERS
Individual food prices can be volatile, and it’s not clear how much of this year’s expected increase is due to the war and how much is due to other factors, including tariffs, unfavorable weather and higher labor costs.
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much → ’ → tariffs
Cornell University economics professor Chris Barrett said he was surprised grocery prices haven’t risen faster given higher costs for diesel, fertilizer and refrigeration.
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prices → say → diesel
USDA revised its 2026 fertilizer cost estimates for major crops upward by 9% to 13% and fuel, lubricant and electricity estimates by 33% to 41%.
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USDA → revise → %
Barrett suspects retailers are absorbing some increases to avoid alienating fed-up customers after multiple years of food inflation.
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retailers → suspect → inflation
WHAT COULD COME NEXT:
uncertain
WHAT → come → ?
Experts have warned that fresh produce and other frequently replenished perishables could respond quickly to higher transportation and refrigeration costs.
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produce → warn → costs
…and 27 more, not listed.
The Aporia
