Bookies brace for Everest day wipeout after key scratching

Read the original at The Sydney Morning Herald ↗
Cite

Kerry, C. (2026, October 16). Bookies brace for Everest day wipeout after key scratching. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/bookies-brace-for-everest-day-wipeout-after-key-scratching-20261016-p6166q.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-16 · by Craig Kerry

Quick Summary

TAB senior trader Tim Ryan discusses the financial risks bookmakers face due to high-favorite horses Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow in upcoming races. With Ka Ying Rising favored at $1.50 for the Everest race and Autumn Glow at $1.28 for the King Charles III Stakes, Ryan predicts a multimillion-dollar loss if both win. The article details specific bets placed on these favorites and discusses adjustments to betting odds based on recent events and track conditions.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-16, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says bookies are bracing for a significant financial hit on Saturday after key horse Pride Of Jenni was scratched from the King Charles III Stakes due to a leg infection. Ka Ying Rising, a Hong Kong superstar, remains the favorite at $1.50 for the $20 million Everest race, while Autumn Glow has firmed as the top choice at $1.28 for the five-horse $5 million King Charles III Stakes. Ryan predicts a "wipeout" if both horses win and estimates potential losses of nearly $1 million from bettors who backed these favorites in multi-race bets. He also notes that bookmakers will likely accept more bets on these favorites rather than limit them to mitigate risk.

Written for “Everest Day Betting Controversy” on 2026-10-16, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Everest Day Betting Controversy
Entertainment · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 13% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 28 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles describe different aspects of horse racing events on Everest day but do not report on the same specific incident.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 2 of 43 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles discuss different aspects of horse racing events, with Article A focusing on preparations and prospects for Tempted and Jimmysstar in the Everest race, while Article B discusses betting implications after a key scratching.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 3% hedged 2 of 65 📰 publisher trust 61
“Article A describes an early race in New Zealand where Ka Ying Rising was initially raced, while Article B discusses upcoming races and betting for the Everest at Randwick, focusing on current events.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 12% hedged 8 of 66 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles discuss related racing events and odds for Ka Ying Rising but describe different aspects and outcomes.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
13%
3 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Entertainment
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-16 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 3860 article(s) · 10 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 10 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Craig Kerry
34 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says Everest day favourites Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are set to deliver a multimillion dollar “wipeout” on Saturday, after the blow of losing Pride Of Jenni from the King Charles III Stakes.
🔮 The six-year-old, expected to take his winning streak to 22 on Saturday and prizemoney past $37 million, has raced just once on rain-affected going, and won.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · Runner-by-runner guide to the 2026 Everest
🔮 Dale said he also discussed Super Norwest as an option with Hillier, but Rose Aye’s form won the spot, and he was confident it would hold up.
🔮 “Ka Ying, it’s his second time travelling and no doubt things would be smoother for him this time around, and he was able to win and win quite easy last time.
🔮 She will aim for another first-attempt win next week when she partners Warwoven in the Cox Plate at Flemington.
🔮 The switch of Pride Of Jenni to race at Randwick, the scene of her amazing breakaway win in the 2024 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m), has built the mile feature into arguably the race of the Everest program, overshadowing the $20 million showpiece expected to be dominated by defending champion Ka Ying Rising ($1.50 favourite).
🔮 Nash Rawiller controlled the race on Saturday up front on Lindermann before Mott and Attrition ($6) wore them down late for a half-neck victory.
🔮 John O’Shea and Tom Charlton-trained Satono Glow, a $2.60 chance after a first-up group 3 win at Flemington, relished a hot speed set by favourite Paradoxium ($2) to come from midfield and take over inside the 100m for a one and a quarter length win over Steel Will.
🔮 If he wins, Warwoven will join stallion successes The Autumn Sun (2018) and Ole Kirk (2020) as colts to have completed the 1400m Golden Rose-1600m Caulfield Guineas double.
🔮 Pride, though, expected to keep Private Eye for a race next week in Melbourne after he has failed to find his best form on firm tracks at his past two starts in Sydney.
Also by Craig Kerry
Runner-by-runner guide to the 2026 Everest
2026-10-15 · The Sydney Morning Herald
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 34 articles by Craig Kerry →

Topics

Autumn Glow Everest Ka Ying Rising Ninja TAB

Subjects

Ka Ying Rising PERSON · 3× Ryan PERSON · 3× Autumn Glow PERSON · 2× Ninja ORG · 2× TAB ORG · 2× Ceolwulf ORG · 1× Hong Kong GPE · 1× Randwick ORG · 1× Spicy Martini PERSON · 1× Tim Ryan PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising remained a $1.50 favourite to defend his title in the $20 million Everest at Randwick, while Autumn Glow firmed into $1.28 for the five-horse $5 million King Charles after the loss of Pride Of Jenni due to the leg infection. “I am so flat about that, almost devastated,” Ryan said.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-16
🔮 TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says Everest day favourites Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are set to deliver a multimillion dollar “wipeout” on Saturday, after the blow of losing Pride Of Jenni from the King Charles III Stakes.
2026-10-16 · The Sydney Morning Herald
Bookies brace for Everest day wipeout after key scratching · assertive framing

Claims (23 extracted, 3 hedged)

TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says Everest day favourites Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are set to deliver a multimillion dollar “wipeout” on Saturday, after the blow of losing Pride Of Jenni from the King Charles III Stakes. asserted
Rising → say → Stakes
However, the bookmaker is preparing to “lean into” the most backed runners on the program. asserted
bookmaker → prepare → program
Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising remained a $1.50 favourite to defend his title in the $20 million Everest at Randwick, while Autumn Glow firmed into $1.28 for the five-horse $5 million King Charles after the loss of Pride Of Jenni due to the leg infection. “I am so flat about that, almost devastated,” Ryan said. asserted
Ryan → remain → that
“I thought she was a risk, Autumn Glow, with a Pride Of Jenni in the race, a strong-run mile on a testing track. asserted
she → think → track
It would play into Ceolwulf’s hands. asserted
It → play → hands
Now, it’s probably going to be a jog-trot. asserted
it → go → ?
“The Ka Ying Rising into Autumn Glow multi, we are holding nearly a million on that already and that’s going to grow tomorrow, and I’m not confident about getting either beat now. asserted
either → hold → that
“Ka Ying Rising is best backed, Autumn Glow is second best, then it’s daylight third.” asserted
it → back → ?
Asked what the loss would be if both won, Ryan said: “Wipeout.” asserted
Ryan → ask → Wipeout
“And I believe we are going to lean into it tomorrow as well, with some generosity,” he said. “It might cost us four or five million.” uncertain
It → believe → four
Ka Ying Rising opened at $2.10 for the Everest after winning the race last year by a length and a quarter. asserted
Rising → open → length
He was as low as $1.30 before easing in price after a trial loss to Everest rival Ninja, and Randwick copping close to 100mm of rain this past week. asserted
Randwick → ease → rain
“Overall we are holding about $3.25 million on him, $2.5 million in multis and $750,000 straight out,” Ryan said. asserted
Ryan → hold → multis
“Futures-wise, he was the most wagered on in an Everest, surpassing what we held on him last year. asserted
we → wager → him
And I imagine he will eclipse what we held on final field-wise last year tomorrow. asserted
we → imagine → what
“Early in the week, I thought it was $1.40 on a soft 6, $1.50 on a soft 7 and $1.60 on a heavy 8. asserted
it → think → 8
“After the final field on Tuesday night, there was nothing for him, but at $1.50 on Thursday, he was quite popular. asserted
he → be → Thursday
That has dried up a bit now. asserted
That → dry → ?
“Thursday, he was holding about 65 per cent, now he’s down to 50 per cent of the hold, so that’s telling me it might be time to think about $1.55. uncertain
it → hold → 1.55
“I don’t really want to lay him. asserted
I → want → him
He’s just so much better than them, he’s got the great racing style and he could be a wet tracker. uncertain
he → ’ → style
It’s completely unknown, but we know wet tracks can be a class killer.” asserted
tracks → ’ → ?
He said Stradbroke heavy track winner Spicy Martini ($31) was the TAB’s biggest loser in final field betting at $500,000. asserted
Martini → say → 500,000
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