Olivia Chow is attracting renters and others worried about housing while Brad Bradford backers are most concerned about property taxes, according to the most recent Vote Compass data, which shows housing, taxes, crime and cost of living are top of mind for Toronto voters.
uncertain
housing → attract → voters
While revealing who is drawn to the leading mayoral candidates, the popular online voter information tool — a partnership between the Star and Vox Pop Labs — also yielded data highlighting the divide in election priorities for voters in central Toronto versus the suburbs.
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tool → reveal → suburbs
Candidates are appealing to constituencies with very different understandings of Toronto’s most pressing challenges, says Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University professor and chief executive of Vox Pop which, with the Star, is offering Vote Compass free to voters in Ontario’s 50 most populous municipalities.
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which → appeal → municipalities
“What’s interesting is how differently people can see the same city,” van der Linden said.
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Linden → ’ → city
“Where you live, whether you rent or own your home, and your political outlook all seem to shape what you think Toronto’s biggest problems are.
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problems → live → home
“When people can’t agree on what the problems are, it’s not surprising that they have very different ideas about who should be running the city.
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who → agree → city
More than 100,000 people have filled out detailed Vote Compass surveys on election issues, allowing them to discover local candidates most closely aligned to their views, while letting them explore other candidates’ positions.
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them → fill → positions
Unlike conventional surveys that ask respondents to rank a set of predetermined issues, Vote Compass invites participants to identify election priorities in their own words, with responses classified by municipal politics researchers.
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Compass → ask → researchers
What the top concern is in Toronto
A sample of 12,365 Torontonians collected until last Thursday identified housing as the leading concern in Toronto, with 14.2 per cent of residents citing it as their most important election issue, followed by property taxes and municipal budgets (10.9 per cent) and crime and public safety (10.2 per cent).
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cent → collect → taxes
We drilled down into priorities for those who identified as supporters of the two most prominent mayoral contenders — Chow, seeking re-election, and Bradford, the Beaches—East York councillor hoping to replace her.
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who → drill → her
While 21.8 per cent of Chow supporters named housing as their top priority, only 3.3 per cent of Bradford supporters did likewise.
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cent → name → supporters
Chow fans’ next highest priority, cited by 12.6 per cent of respondents, was public transit.
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priority → cite → respondents
In contrast, people intending to vote for Bradford were most concerned with property taxes and budgets, with 22.3 per cent highlighting them compared to only 3.7 per cent of Chow voters.
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cent → intend → voters
The second issue cited most frequently by Bradford voters was crime and public safety, with 20.3 per cent calling it their top concern compared to only 3.9 per cent of Chow supporters.
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cent → cite → supporters
An Oct. 8-9 Liaison Strategies poll also highlighted the housing divide among Chow and Bradford supporters.
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poll → highlight → Chow
The survey found that, among decided and leaning voters who rent a home, 57 per cent favoured Chow compared to 40 per cent for Bradford.
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cent → find → Bradford
Homeowners were, by a smaller margin, more likely to support Bradford.
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Homeowners → support → Bradford
Where you live shapes your priorities
The data suggests that where supporters of both candidates live within Toronto is also shaping their election priorities.
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live → live → priorities
Suburban respondents care more about property taxes, crime and public safety than their downtown counterparts, who prioritize homelessness and housing.
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who → care → homelessness
The contrast, along with differing priorities for Chow and Bradford supporters, “feels like two different cities,” marching toward the Oct. 26 election, said Vox Pop Labs analyst Joanna Massie.
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Massie → differ → election
Vote Compass data for all 50 municipalities, analyzing more than 34,000 responses, found that property taxes and municipal budgets were the most frequently identified concern, accounting for 15.1 per cent of issues named.
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taxes → analyze → issues
Housing followed at 11.3 per cent, with crime and public safety (8.6 per cent), homelessness (8.6 per cent), and public transit (8 per cent) rounding out the top five.
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crime → follow → five
Other findings:
- The gulf between priorities for renters and homeowners seen in Toronto is visible across Ontario.
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gulf → see → Ontario
Renters were 15 percentage points more likely than homeowners to identify housing as their most important issue, and 4.8 points more likely to prioritize public transit.
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Renters → identify → transit
Homeowners, by contrast, were 14.2 percentage points more likely to prioritize property taxes and municipal budgets.
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Homeowners → prioritize → taxes
Public transit accounted for about one-fifth of election issues cited by Ontario respondents ages 18 to 24, compared with just four per cent among respondents age 75 and older.
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transit → account → respondents
- Political ideology also shapes municipal priorities.
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ideology → shape → priorities
Among respondents across Ontario who place themselves on the political right, about 30 per cent were focused on property taxes and municipal budgets, compared with around four per cent among those on the political left.
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cent → place → left
People on the far left were strongly focused on housing compared to a very small percentage on the far right.
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People → compare → right
The findings suggest that, even in municipal elections without political parties, priorities divide along familiar socioeconomic, generational and ideological lines.
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priorities → suggest → lines
Vote Compass data was weighted to align the sample characteristics with those of the Ontario adult population on the following characteristics: sex, age, education, municipality and past voting record.
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data → weight → characteristics
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