According to a new poll, just 45% of Americans expect the upcoming midterm elections to be conducted fairly, while 55% are unsure or believe there will be interference. The poll found that around 20-24% of Democrats, Republicans, and independents expect foul play, with higher rates of uncertainty among these groups. President Trump's repeated claims about election integrity have contributed to this cynicism, which has persisted despite his lack of evidence and multiple court losses. The poll also suggests that Trump's warnings about mail-in voting have resonated with some Republicans, who are less likely to use this method of voting.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-11,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
Only 45% of Americans believe the midterm elections will be counted fairly, according to a new poll. This skepticism is consistent across party lines, with 20% of Democrats, 32% of Republicans, and 24% of independents saying they expect foul play. An additional 31% of Democrats, 32% of Republicans, and 39% of independents are unsure about the fairness of the election. This cynicism is a result of six years of claims by President Donald Trump that U.S. elections are vulnerable to fraud, which have been met with no evidence despite being made after his loss in the 2020 presidential vote to Joe Biden.
Written for “Midterm Election Integrity Fears” on 2026-09-12,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted
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President Donald Trump’s scaremongering over November’s midterms appears to have been effective, with just 45 percent of Americans saying they expect the elections to be conducted fairly
left frames Trump's actions as 'scaremongering'
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claims he began to make after losing the 2020 presidential vote to Joe Biden and which culminated in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021
left frames Trump's actions as 'scaremongering' and implies they were motivated by a desire for power
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He has pressured Republicans into passing his SAVE America Act – doing so again in his midterms convention speech Tuesday – which has stalled in the Senate amid concerns that it threatens to disenfranchise millions of U.S. citizens
left frames Trump's actions as 'pressuring' and implies they are motivated by a desire to disenfranchise voters
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despite he and his family submitting absentee ballots themselves in Florida without issue
right contrasts with previous claims that mail-in voting is vulnerable to tampering, implying Trump's actions are hypocritical
Leaning score -0.55 for article 7993 (high confidence, 4 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-11
President Donald Trump’s scaremongering over November’s midterms appears to have been effective, with just 45 percent of Americans saying they expect the elections to be conducted fairly, according to a new poll.
uncertain
elections → appear → poll
Fifty-five percent of respondents to YouGov’s latest survey answered “no” or “not sure” when asked if they believed the vote would be carried out without interference from bad actors.
asserted
vote → answer → actors
Those answers were consistent among Democrats, Republicans and independents alike, with 20 percent of followers of the two main parties saying they expected foul play, as did 24 percent of unaffiliated voters.
asserted
percent → say → voters
Thirty-one percent of Democrats, 32 percent of Republicans and 39 percent of independents said they were unsure.
asserted
they → say → independents
The mood of cynicism comes after six years of complaints from Trump about the alleged vulnerability of U.S. elections to fraud, claims he began to make after losing the 2020 presidential vote to Joe Biden and which culminated in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, when a mob of his supporters attempted to stop lawmakers certifying the results.
uncertain
lawmakers → come → results
Trump has never been able to prove his insistence that Biden’s resounding victory was achieved by a sinister Democratic conspiracy and lost multiple court cases at the time disputing results from the states, a period in which his personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, leading the charge, found himself an international figure of fun.
asserted
himself → prove → fun
The president’s campaign to sow distrust about election integrity has nevertheless continued unabated.
asserted
campaign → sow → integrity
He has pressured Republicans into passing his SAVE America Act – doing so again in his midterms convention speech Tuesday – which has stalled in the Senate amid concerns that it threatens to disenfranchise millions of U.S. citizens, who lack the documentation it demands they produce before being allowed to cast a ballot.
asserted
they → pressure → ballot
He has also repeatedly warned that mail-in voting is vulnerable to tampering – despite he and his family submitting absentee ballots themselves in Florida without issue.
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he → warn → issue
Trump issued an executive order to restrict the practice in March, only for it to be blocked in court over concerns that it violated the Constitution, which hands responsibility for administering elections to the states and Congress.
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which → issue → states
North Carolina recently became the first state to begin sending out mail ballots as the legal wrangling continues, leaving many voters understandably confused about where they stand just weeks before they go to the polls.
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they → become → polls
The president’s warnings about mail-in voting appear to have resonated with Republicans, however, only 33 percent of whom told YouGov the practice should be allowed, compared to 91 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of independents.
asserted
practice → mail → independents
The poll found that only 18 percent of conservatives voted by mail in the 2024 presidential election, compared to 33 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of independents.
asserted
percent → find → independents
Looking ahead to November, just 14 percent of Republicans said they will vote by mail this time, with only 18 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of independents making the same pledge, suggesting a distrust of the process or of Trump himself.
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percent → look → Trump
Trump has further undermined public confidence by taking such steps as sending out the FBI to seize mail ballots from the 2020 election to Georgia and encouraging red state Republicans to redraw their congressional maps to boost the GOP’s chances of claiming more seats in the House of Representatives.
asserted
Trump → undermine → Representatives
He has also refused to rule out the prospect of federal troops being sent to supervise polling stations, a move ostensibly made to ensure the process runs smoothly but one that risks creating a climate of fear and intimidation that could cause people to stay away.
uncertain
people → refuse → fear
Most dramatically, Trump delivered a televised primetime address from the Oval Office in July in which he pushed unproven claims about foreign meddling in the 2020 vote and a “deep state” plot to assist it, remarks so unverified some mainstream networks declined to even broadcast them.
uncertain
networks → deliver → them
YouGov’s survey is not the only recent research to reveal a feeling of suspicion and unease abiding, with Gallup reporting last week that 90 percent of people it interviewed said they considered the U.S. government corrupt deep into Trump’s second term.
asserted
government → reveal → term
