IT’S BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT to keep track of the wars, threats, diplomatic disputes, military operations, and disconnected decisions affecting America’s security.
asserted
IT → become → security
Every morning brings another White House announcement, another surprising military operation, another concern expressed by an American ally.
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morning → bring → ally
Yet while Americans focus on the midterm elections, the world isn’t waiting for election day.
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world → focus → day
A decision about buying Russian oil—apparently a desperate attempt to bring down the price of diesel—affects Ukraine’s ability to wage war.
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decision → buy → war
A Houthi missile launched toward Riyadh complicates Saudi Arabia’s military calculations.
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missile → launch → calculations
The misconduct of an American ambassador or the bizarre pronouncements of a cabinet secretary undermines our credibility with our citizens as well as our allies and adversaries.
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misconduct → undermine → citizens
Too often, in news outlets and apparently even in the White House, these singular events are treated as discrete problems to be solved, crises to be managed, or stories to be spun.
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events → treat → problems
The sheer complexity of the world, compounded by a lack of leadership, is preventing us from connecting the dots.
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complexity → compound → dots
It might be good to look at the overlap of these issues.
uncertain
It → look → issues
Russia, Ukraine, and an American lifeline
Let’s begin with one of the more perplexing developments: President Trump’s announcement that the United States would purchase Russian diesel fuel.
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States → begin → fuel
For months, Ukraine has conducted an increasingly effective deep-strike campaign against Russian refineries and energy infrastructure.
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Ukraine → conduct → refineries
Russia’s energy industry helps fund Putin’s war, and its refineries supply fuel needed for military operations.
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refineries → fund → operations
Ukrainian strikes have imposed economic and logistical costs on Moscow, forcing Russia to divert resources to protecting facilities far from the front lines while also affecting Putin’s efforts in pursuing his war aims.
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strikes → impose → aims
Yet Washington is now planning to provide Moscow with additional revenue as the invasion approaches its fifth winter.
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invasion → plan → winter
American lawmakers understand the need to starve Russia’s military capabilities, as they have sought to increase economic pressure on Putin through additional sanctions legislation passed last month—yet President Trump is ignoring the very law that he signed.
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he → understand → that
The new arrangement raises questions about how, or if, those sanctions will be applied now, and whether the administration’s decision to flout the law will undermine Ukraine’s struggle to survive.
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decision → raise → struggle
It’s understandable, in a somewhat self-interested way, why a president would want to lower domestic energy prices before an election (though the president’s diesel deal, even if it goes through, is unlikely to have much effect on prices because the total volume being traded is about one day’s worth of American diesel consumption).
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it → ’ → consumption
But denying an aggressor the resources it needs to keep fighting is also important.
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it → deny → resources
Why would the United States provide Russia with an economic lifeline while simultaneously expecting Ukraine to follow American instructions about where, when, and how to fight its war of self-defense?
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Ukraine → provide → defense
The Houthis bring the war to Riyadh
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Houthis → bring → Riyadh
If the president were to look to the true source of his troubles with energy prices, he would look not in Eastern Europe but in the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia is increasingly under attack.
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Arabia → look → attack
Using missiles and drones, the Houthis struck the major transportation and energy hubs, causing civilian casualties and demonstrating that even after more than a decade of fighting, they retain the ability to attack targets deep inside Saudi territory with devastating effects.
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they → use → effects
Saudi Arabia has spent enormous sums purchasing advanced American military equipment, including sophisticated air-defense systems.
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Arabia → spend → systems
Yet defending a large country against combinations of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones is extraordinarily difficult.
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defending → defend → missiles
The Houthis understand this asymmetry.
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Houthis → understand → asymmetry
Like Iran, they recognize they don’t need to defeat a technologically superior military in conventional battle.
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they → recognize → battle
They need only continue inflicting damage, disrupting commercial aviation, threatening energy facilities, and imposing costs on a wealthier adversary.
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They → continue → adversary
The problem extends beyond Riyadh.
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problem → extend → Riyadh
The Houthis are threatening shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
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Houthis → threaten → chokepoints
With trade through the Strait of Hormuz already obstructed by the war with Iran, disruption at both ends of the Arabian Peninsula threatens international commerce and energy markets.
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disruption → obstruct → commerce
Washington has wavered on whether and how to support Saudi Arabia, risking either the destabilization of the House of Saud and further chaos in the region, or involving America in yet another Middle Eastern war with vague objectives, little to no public support, few allies, and a stretched military.
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Washington → waver → objectives
That brings us to another report from Washington: renewed American attacks against Iran, potentially before the midterm elections.
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That → bring → elections
Reports that the administration is still considering strikes against Iran (which the president contests, but there are reasons not to take his word at face value) again raise familiar questions: What is the desired political objective? What military effects are necessary to achieve it?
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effects → consider → it
How will Iran respond? What additional forces will be required to protect American personnel and regional allies?
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forces → respond → personnel
And what happens if another round of strikes fails to produce the intended result while consuming still more critical and slow-to-replace precision munitions?
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round → happen → munitions
One more time for those in the back: The United States has extraordinary capabilities to strike targets almost anywhere, but destroying a target and achieving a strategic objective are not the same thing.
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destroying → strike → objective
Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to retaliate through missiles, drones, regional partners, cyber operations, and attacks against maritime commerce.
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Iran → demonstrate → commerce
Military commanders are taught to examine the second- and third-order effects of their decisions before executing any action.
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commanders → teach → action
Political leaders should be expected to do the same, especially when the consequences could include more American casualties, an expanding regional conflict, continued damage to the global economy, and a weakened American position in other parts of the world against more formidable threats.
uncertain
consequences → expect → threats
Another area of increased tension, Europe, offers a reminder that national security involves more than directly confronting an adversary.
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security → increase → adversary
…and 41 more, not listed.
The Aporia
