Traditional Labor Party supporters say they are questioning their loyalty to the party, with growing disillusionment prompting many in regional Victoria to look for change.
asserted
disillusionment → say → change
Six weeks from the Victorian state election, Labor voters say they are turning away from the ALP but don't know who to turn to.
David Pickering from Ballarat describes himself as historically a Labor voter, but not this election.
asserted
Pickering → say → voter
"I feel that it's time for a change.
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it → feel → change
I feel like they've become complacent and stuck with their decision-making," he said.
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he → feel → making
"They are not offering anything for the rural areas.
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They → offer → areas
They say they are going to fix the potholes, but I'm not seeing it."
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I → say → it
Mr Pickering, 63, says voting this time is proving to be the most challenging as he grapples with the other offerings, such as the Liberals and One Nation.
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he → say → Liberals
"I'm more than likely going to lean towards the Liberals, but it's a tough one," he said.
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he → go → Liberals
He said with the seat of Eureka being Labor, the electorate has done well, but it's not the local member Michela Settle, he will vote out.
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he → say → Eureka
They're not spending the money on the state and not really doing enough to help," Mr Pickering said, pointing to issues such as cost of living, potholes, and telecommunications.
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Pickering → spend → living
Former Labor candidate Nadia David, who ran for the seat of Indi at the 2022 federal election, said she quit the party over the state government's controversial Emergency Services and Volunteers Fund (ESVF).
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she → run → Fund
The farmer, bookshop owner and lawyer joined Labor in 2019 but describes herself as "politically homeless".
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farmer → join → herself
"I hope Labor loses," Ms David said.
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David → hope → ?
It deserves to be tossed."
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It → deserve → ?
Ms David said she became increasingly frustrated by what she saw as Labor's metro-centric focus and lack of engagement with regional communities.
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she → say → communities
"I certainly don't see any level of engagement, and I don't see any intentional engagement with rural and regional Victorians that are outside of Labor held seats," she said.
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she → see → seats
The ESVF, which replaced the fire services levy, has sparked anger in regional Victoria, with some farmers facing bill increases in the tens of thousands of dollars.
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farmers → replace → dollars
"When that was announced, I think I pretty much resigned that day,"she said.
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I → announce → ?
Labor defectors
An Accent Research study of the Victorian state election funded by the University of Melbourne, found almost half of respondents who voted for Labor in the 2022 state election intend to vote differently this November.
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who → fund → election
The Melbourne based academic said there was "an element of its time for change in regional areas".
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academic → base → areas
"Of the 1,002 Victorians who participated, the top three issues were: cost of living, crime and public safety, and health care and hospitals," she said.
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she → participate → living
"The pothole is a perfect example, it represents 12 years of feeling as though they have been taken for granted by the Labor government."
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they → represent → government
Dr Foley said those who previously voted Labor and intend to vote One Nation were not rusted on One Nation supporters, but were shifting their vote because they felt neglected and disillusioned.
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they → say → vote
She said she did not see this as a protest but rather a grievance vote.
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she → say → protest
Multiple factors behind Labor's decline
The ABC's chief elections and data analyst Casey Briggs said Labor's decline was the result of an "accumulation" of factors, including an aging government, corruption issues and unpopular leaders.
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decline → say → government
"Labor was seriously looking at a defeat kind of from the beginning of this year," he said.
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he → look → year
He said the previously safe Labor seat of Bendigo East would be closely watched on election night following the resignation of local member and former Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan — and the National party's endorsement of Andrew Lethlean, which could make the contest more competitive.
uncertain
contest → say → Lethlean
Briggs said traditionally safe Labor seats could also be vulnerable to One Nation.
uncertain
seats → say → Nation
"What we're looking at here is really the first test of One Nation support in a competitive election in Australia where government is on the line," he said.
"
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he → look → line
That means we're kind of in uncharted borders in terms of this polling rise for One Nation."
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we → mean → Nation
Voting for change
Jonathan Flind from Mount Clear has traditionally voted Labor, but said he plans to vote Liberal this election, citing a Coalition pledge to spend $5 billion rebuilding roads.
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he → vote → roads
As for One Nation, Mr Flind said he simply did not trust its leader, Pauline Hanson.
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he → say → leader
"The fact she's had nice free trips to Mar-a-Lago Resort, and she's associated with extreme right-wing high-time UK criminal Tommy Robinson.
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she → associate → Robinson
It's people like that I feel very uncomfortable that she associates with," he said.
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he → feel → that
Tracey Walsh from Wangaratta, who has generally voted Labor or Greens, is considering a donkey vote in the lower house as a protest against the major parties.
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who → vote → parties
"I'm actually quite amazed I'm even saying it," she said.
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she → say → it
The 63-year-old said she was concerned about the rise of One Nation and the major parties adopting its rhetoric.
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parties → say → rhetoric
"The major parties are sort of almost aping them in some way because they don't want to miss out on this, what they see is this groundswell of support,"she said.
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see → ape → support,"she
Ms Walsh said she felt her vote in the lower house would not make a difference.
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vote → say → difference
She said the idea of protesting with her vote was prompted by talking to someone else her age who was "thinking the same thing".
asserted
who → say → thing
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
