For as long as I can remember, voters have disapproved of immigration, while governments of both colours have encouraged it.
asserted
governments → remember → it
To put it politely, all that’s changed is where most of the migrants come from.
asserted
most → put → migrants
They used to come from Europe; now they come from Asia.
asserted
they → use → Asia
This masthead’s polling finds that two-thirds of Australians want our refugee intake (which is a lot smaller a part of total immigration than the punters seem to imagine) slashed, more money spent on deportations and a ban on immigrants coming from countries where extremism is a danger.
asserted
extremism → find → countries
One reason governments like immigration is that business is all in favour.
asserted
business → like → favour
If you’ll forgive a little cynicism, it’s not hard to see why.
asserted
it → forgive → cynicism
When you’re trying to increase your profits, the easiest way is to sell into a growing market.
asserted
way → try → market
And when you need skilled labour, it’s a lot easier to sponsor a migrant with skills some other country has paid to provide them with rather than to fiddle about with your own apprenticeships, training schemes and such like.
asserted
country → need → apprenticeships
All this is why, for many years, the two major parties had a tacit agreement to avoid talking about immigration in front of the children, so to speak.
asserted
parties → have → children
But the resurrection of Pauline Hanson and her ratbag One Nation has changed all that, and now it’s on for young and old.
asserted
it → change → that
What’s eating the voters – and driving much of the surge in support for One Nation – is the high cost of eating which, as I’ve argued repeatedly, is not so much because of high prices as it is lower wages to pay for the stuff.
asserted
it → eat → stuff
That’s hard to fix; bulldusting on about migrants is much easier.
asserted
bulldusting → ’ → migrants
But if ever there was an outfit happy to jump on the anti-immigration bandwagon, it’s One Nation.
asserted
it → be → bandwagon
It has started a how-low-can-you-go reverse auction between the parties.
asserted
you → start → parties
With so many of its former voters shifting their support to the party, the Liberals were the first to join the auction.
asserted
Liberals → shift → auction
And even the Labor government felt sufficiently rattled to join in.
asserted
government → feel → ?
One Nation promises to cut net migration by 750,000 in its first three years, then move to an annual limit below 130,000.
asserted
Nation → promise → 130,000
This, they boast, would be the biggest cut to immigration in our history.
asserted
they → boast → history
The Coalition has proposed to more than halve net migration for two years to 100,000, 130,000 in its third year and 160,000 in its fourth year.
asserted
Coalition → propose → year
After that, net migration would be tied to the pace of housing completions.
asserted
migration → tie → completions
In response, the government has announced measures to achieve a net migration rate of 225,000 a year by 2028.
asserted
government → announce → 2028
How do I think it would turn out in practice?
asserted
it → think → practice
In the unlikely (and unthinkable) event of One Nation winning government, it would discover that the realities of office prevented it from doing anything like what it promised.
asserted
it → win → what
The econocrats would immediately explain that, as its opponents had argued, negative population growth would tank the economy.
asserted
growth → explain → economy
About three-quarters of the 2.1 per cent growth in gross domestic product over the year to June was accounted for by population growth.
asserted
quarters → account → growth
Should One Nation press on regardless, it would fall well below its target.
asserted
it → press → target
No government has that much control over net immigration.
asserted
government → have → immigration
Were the Coalition to win government, and the air come out of the One Nation balloon, it’s likely to return to type as the party of business whose business was to make it easier for business to stay in business.
asserted
business → win → business
It would go through the motions of keeping its promise and not worry too much when not much came of it.
asserted
much → go → it
The idea of linking net migration to housing completions sounds nice but, in practice, would be very hit and miss.
asserted
idea → link → practice
If Labor survives in office, it would stick with its announced intention to reduce net immigration to 225,000 a year, but the target would be hard to hit because of factors beyond the government’s control.
asserted
target → survive → control
But we mustn’t let it blind us to the benefits immigration brings.
asserted
immigration → let → benefits
Don’t forget that, without immigration, our low natural increase (births minus deaths) thanks to a fertility rate (number of kids over a woman’s lifetime) of 1.48 and likely to go lower, our population would be falling.
asserted
population → forget → 1.48
Any economist will tell you that you don’t want to live in an economy with a falling population.
asserted
you → tell → population
Opportunity doesn’t grow, it contracts.
asserted
it → grow → ?
Like almost all countries, we have an ageing population.
asserted
we → have → population
That means an ever-growing population of oldies who pay little tax but generate a huge bill for pensions, healthcare and aged care.
asserted
who → mean → pensions
Without immigration, that burden would be borne by an ever-smaller working population.
asserted
burden → bear → population
So immigration slows the ageing problem.
asserted
immigration → slow → problem
With more people to share the cost, a bigger population makes it possible to afford improved infrastructure.
asserted
it → share → infrastructure
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
