- Published
Imagine a world where Manchester City had not used "sham contracts" to build a team capable of winning three Premier League titles, one FA Cup and three EFL Cups.
asserted
City → publish → titles
If City were the winners, then there had to be losers.
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City → have → ?
Not just those teams who finished runners-up or lost cup finals.
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who → finish → finals
The potential impact runs much deeper and includes missed Champions League qualification, relegation and Premier League prize money.
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impact → run → qualification
Thirty-five other teams played in the English top flight between 2009 and 2018.
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teams → play → 2009
And every one could in some way claim to have been left financially out of pocket.
uncertain
one → claim → pocket
City, of course, continue to deny any wrongdoing and they have appealed.
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they → continue → wrongdoing
But as it stands they are guilty of all charges related to inflating their sponsorship income to the tune of £830m, plus another £90m in expenses.
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they → stand → expenses
Strip that money out and it changes the whole complexion of the competition.
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it → strip → competition
BBC Sport has crunched the numbers to assess the potential financial impact on the top flight.
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Sport → crunch → flight
How the figures are worked out
When Sheikh Mansour bought Manchester City in 2008 they were far removed from the club you see today.
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you → work → club
Since finishing fifth in 1991-92, the last season before the formation of the Premier League, City's highest placing had been eighth in 2004-05.
The Abu Dhabi money poured in via what the Premier League's independent commission described as a "disguised funding scheme".
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commission → finish → scheme
It took the club's sponsorship revenues from being on a par with Stoke City in 2008-09 to eventually overtaking those of Manchester United.
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It → take → United
City finished fifth in 2009-10.
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City → finish → 2009
Since then, not once have they finished outside the top four in the Premier League.
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they → finish → League
Did this money deny other clubs a place in the competition, and other kinds of success?
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money → deny → success
This article is not trying to set out how much compensation a team might be able to claim.
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team → try → compensation
Nor is it saying any one team would definitely have avoided relegation or reached the Champions League.
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team → say → League
It is about chance, the possibility that a very different City team would have taken to the field without the hundreds of millions pumped in by the club's Abu Dhabi owners.
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team → take → owners
It has not considered potential future earnings from success, including sponsors' bonuses and further prize money.
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It → consider → bonuses
Nor has it factored in players who may feel they have missed out on salary increases, or triggered payments, for how their club might have performed.
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club → factor → payments
Lost prize money by league placing
Missed potential Champions League earnings
Europa League payments
Loss of Premier League status
Impact of cup final defeats
How City gained £1.17bn, and others may have lost £799.5m
The full impact of City's behaviour on other clubs could be calculated at £799.5m.
£188.2m in Premier League placing money
£349.7m in relegation costs
£217.8m in missed Champions League prize money
£43.8m related to domestic cup competitions
We calculated these figures by taking published prize money from the relevant seasons.
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We → lose → seasons
For Premier League place money, each team that finished below City is considered to have potentially missed a payment for one place.
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that → finish → place
For relegation, this is the minimum value of being in the Premier League for the next season, minus the received parachute payment.
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this → receive → payment
For the Champions League, we took City's earnings from the following seasons and deducted the impacted teams' Europa League prize money.
But City also earned prize money themselves during this period.
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City → take → period
Across the competitions, City were paid £1.17bn:
£812.3m from the Premier League - total income from prize money and broadcast revenues
£363.4m via the Champions League
£900,000 from the FA Cup victory
£300,000 from the three EFL Cup victories
The most impacted: How Spurs could have missed out on £120m
"
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Spurs → pay → m
We have lived through a period of deception," former Tottenham Hotspur boss Mauricio Pochettino said last month.
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Pochettino → live → deception
"No type of punishment will make it possible to repair what was done."
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what → make → punishment
You can see his point.
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You → see → point
Spurs finished one place outside the Champions League positions in four (though one only was under Pochettino) of the eight seasons in which City qualified for Europe's elite competition.
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City → finish → competition
BBC Sport took City's earnings from the Champions League in the following season, and deducted Tottenham's Europa League prize money.
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Sport → take → money
Over the four seasons Spurs missed out, Manchester City earned £148.2m from the Champions League, with Tottenham taking £29.9m from the Europa League.
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Tottenham → miss → League
The 2014-15 campaign led to the biggest deficit, as City finished second in the Premier League and Tottenham came fifth.
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Tottenham → lead → League
City received £71.2m for reaching the Champions League semi-finals in the following season, but Spurs were only paid £17.7m from the Europa League - a difference of £53.5m.
Spurs also finished behind City in the Premier League table six times, with the cumulative prize money difference worth £6.6m.
The north Londoners did benefit in the 2013-14 season, as they only qualified for Europe because City beat Sunderland in the final of the EFL Cup.
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City → receive → Cup
Spurs gained £5.1m from their 2014-15 Europa League campaign which would not have been possible without City's success.
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which → gain → success
Taking into account all competitions, that produced a net financial loss for Spurs of £119.9m.
Did City's EFL Cup win cost Liverpool £37.8m?
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win → take → m
The 2015-16 EFL Cup final proved to be decisive for Liverpool's hopes of European football.
Jurgen Klopp's men lost to City on penalties following a 1-1 draw.
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men → prove → draw
The Europa League place transferred to the league, and went to West Ham United.
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place → transfer → United
Liverpool only finished eighth, which was not enough to qualify for Europe.
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which → finish → Europe
Had Liverpool won the final, they would have entered the Europa League, and this provides a key financial comparison.
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this → win → comparison
…and 30 more, not listed.
The Aporia
