The press invitation from Olivia Chow’s team Wednesday night promised their candidate would make a “signature campaign announcement” the following morning.
asserted
candidate → promise → announcement
It was the first indication all election long that the incumbent might be set to present voters with something new.
uncertain
incumbent → set → something
For months, Chow had mostly stuck to reiterating policies she’d drafted while in office.
asserted
she → stick → office
Meanwhile, her biggest rival, Brad Bradford, has made a series of fresh promises.
asserted
rival → make → promises
While some experts questioned the feasibility and necessity of a few of them, people familiar with Bradford’s campaign told the Star they believe his pitches are resonating with the electorate, given how Chow’s advantage has been shrinking in the polls.
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advantage → question → polls
At a debate earlier this week, Bradford accused Chow of being “out of ideas and out of gas.”
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Bradford → accuse → gas
On Thursday morning, when Chow took to a podium to make that “signature campaign announcement,” it was another recitation of an idea already put forward while she was in office: build 10,000 rental homes next year and 65,000 by 2030.
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she → take → 2030
The city already committed to the former target in June and the latter in 2023.
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city → commit → 2023
This is not the Chow of 2023, whom municipal politics expert Myer Siemiatycki said ran a “vision-driven” byelection campaign, coming up with novel solutions to the city’s problems and boldly calling for tax increases.
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Siemiatycki → say → increases
This, he said, is a classic incumbent vs. challenger situation.
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he → say → challenger
It is, after all, harder to critique the establishment when you’re in charge.
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It → critique → charge
As the incumbent, Chow’s record has become the target and her campaign has, understandably, prioritized protecting it and emphasizing her accomplishments, he said, rather than taking a chance promoting a new policy an opponent could poke holes in.
uncertain
opponent → become → holes
Early, positive opinion polling results may well have convinced Chow not to deviate from the way the incumbent role is typically played.
uncertain
role → convince → way
“From the launch of her campaign, she was polling significantly ahead,” said Siemiatycki who is a professor emeritus at the Toronto Metropolitan University.
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who → poll → University
“It would have been a natural response to think the public seems to like and value and appreciate your performance as mayor, let’s keep reminding them of it.
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’s → think → it
But those polling numbers have shifted somewhat.
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numbers → shift → ?
I’m not sure the deliverables of her three years in office have been as creatively or forcefully presented as they could have been by her campaign.”
uncertain
they → ’m → campaign
What has Chow and Bradford been promising?
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Chow → promise → What
Last month, Chow promised to reduce the TTC fare cap from 47 rides a month to 10 a week.
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Chow → promise → 10
But she had already asked the TTC in December to plan to reduce the cap to 40 rides a month in 2027.
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she → ask → 2027
(Forty rides per month is technically more generous, since it works out to 9.23 rides per week to hit the cap over the course of the year.
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it → work → year
But a weekly cap kicks in faster.)
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cap → kick → ?
This week, Chow said she would create a universal school lunch program by the end of her term, if re-elected.
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she → say → term
Regardless of the merits of the idea, council already approved her motion in 2024 to have staff create “a clear strategic path to achieving a universal lunch program no later than 2030.”
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staff → approve → 2030
The Bradford campaign has no shortage of flashy pitches, even if some experts worry about how he might pay for them — especially since he’s promised a property tax increase below the rate of inflation next year.
uncertain
he → have → inflation
He wants to turn Toronto Water into an incorporated public utility, like Toronto Hydro.
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He → want → Hydro
He also wants to eliminate the municipal land transfer tax on the first $1.1 million of a home purchase.
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He → want → purchase
His promise to rip up some Etobicoke bike lanes was already on Premier Doug Ford’s to-do list.
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promise → rip → list
His announcement that he would support involuntary addiction treatment was made right after members of the Association of Municipalities of Ontario agreed at a conference near Ottawa to petition the province to allow it.
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members → support → it
His plan to build a police “substation” in Union Station is something police are already working on.
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police → build → Station
And his pledge to have a third party review the city’s finances — which is how he says he’ll pay for some of his big-ticket items — is something Rob Ford already tried as mayor, without generating any significant savings for taxpayers.
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Ford → review → taxpayers
And Bradford has brought up items he championed before at council, too: promising to build platform-edge doors at subway stations and get commuters refunds when the TTC is delayed.
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TTC → bring → refunds
With all this, Bradford is running a traditional challenger playbook, Siemiatycki said.
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Siemiatycki → run → playbook
‘We’re left to rely on personal assurances’
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We → leave → assurances
Bradford is making an argument for decreases in taxation and levies, lowering the amount of money residents send to city hall, he said.
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he → make → hall
“At the same time, he says he wants to expand services.
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he → say → services
He’s now being challenged to explain how the math works, how he can collect less yet spend more.
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he → challenge → more
We’re left to rely on personal assurances that he can find huge amounts of savings.
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he → leave → savings
Other ideas of Bradford’s are direct counters to proposals he supported as a city councillor.
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he → support → councillor
He wants to rename Sankofa Square despite voting to approve its current name.
asserted
He → want → name
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
