Royce On San Francisco

Astral Codex Ten · collected 2026-09-10 · by Scott Alexander commentary
Read the original at Astral Codex Ten ↗

Summary

A correspondent for the New York Post describes San Francisco in the late 19th century as a place where people are "mad, stark mad" due to the city's rampant speculation and excess. The article notes that many citizens, particularly young men, spend most of their time gambling or working long hours with little relaxation. The correspondent estimates that many millionaires claim to be worth $200,000-$300,000 per year. The author portrays San Francisco as a place where people live in a state of nervous strain and excess, with the city's social scene led by women who are not necessarily respectable.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-10, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
66
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
11%
7 of 66 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly right
expected in commentary, which argues a position
Publisher trust
not scored
Commentary is not rated for newsroom trust
Outlets on this story
1
Crime & Law
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-10 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

In San Francisco, wealthy young men have been exaggerating their income and claiming to be millionaires to impress visitors, with some even showing them around dilapidated buildings they claim are their mansions. A correspondent from the New York Post describes these men as "madmen" who seem more interested in making a good impression than actually living comfortably. He estimates that each of these self-proclaimed millionaires is worth between $200,000 to $300,000** per year, although it's unlikely they actually have this kind of wealth. The correspondent observes that many of these young men are involved in business and seem to spend a lot of time engaging in reckless behavior, with some even neglecting their families as a result.

Written for “California Gubernatorial Race” on 2026-09-10, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score +0.85 Confidence high
Leaning score +0.85 for article 7414 (high confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-10

Story

📰 California Gubernatorial Race
Crime & Law · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.

Publisher

Astral Codex Ten · 32 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Scott Alexander
31 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On housing prices: The San Franciscans at this moment, living in their rag palaces, or renting them at figures that would have sounded possible in the Arabian Nights . . . seemed more like madmen than ever.
2026-09-10 · assertive framing · Royce On San Francisco
🔮 This would be scientifically useful: understand how AIs work, with possible relevance to human cognition.
🔮 At Ovelle, you will help make eggs abundant, thereby solving infertility, unlocking further advances in reproductive technology, and supporting the flourishing of future generations.
2026-09-07 · assertive framing · Open Thread 450
🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Your Book Review: The Tale Of Genji
🔮 We don’t even need for there to be a crash to make improvements – we test proactively, we build in redundancy, and we monitor for deviations which could be a threat.
2026-09-03 · assertive framing · Nicholas Decker In Hell
🔮 Content warning: the first part of this review contains medical details that some people might find gruesome; I am bad at judging these things since I can no longer feel disgust or fear myself, and have tried to err on the side of completeness.
2026-09-03 · assertive framing · Absurd Adventure And Amygdalectomy Advocacy
🔮 [This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done.
🔮 This year’s survey will probably take 30 - 45 minutes.
2026-08-27 · assertive framing · Take The 2026 ACX Survey
🔮 It’s not necessarily wrong to deprioritize a topic because it vaguely reminds you of something that you have negative affect toward, but I would prefer these people admit they’re dismissing/ignoring it rather than claim to be engaging with it.
🔮 I don’t know, but he may have misinterpreted my original tweet as saying income doesn’t matter at all, in which case this data functions as an effective rebuttal.
2026-08-25 · assertive framing · Re: Re: Re: Pritchard On Liberal Happiness
More on this subject from Scott Alexander
The Foothills Of Bay Area House Party
2026-08-18 · Astral Codex Ten · 54% similar
All 31 articles by Scott Alexander →

Topics

Bedlamite San Franciscans San Francisco Stockton the New York Post

Subjects

San Francisco GPE · 4× Bedlamite NORP · 1× California GPE · 1× San Franciscans NORP · 1× Stockton GPE · 1× The San Franciscan PERSON · 1× the New York Post ORG · 1×

Narrative

If women fell into these unguarded habits, such as the custom of letting men who chanced to be their friends, and chanced to be lucky, give them, with careless Californian generosity, expensive presents on every occasion when these friends had made some new success in business, and if such “Californian” ways, however innocent in their beginning, led to misunderstandings in the end: still, on the other hand, husbands who found themselves absorbed in business rivalry with a community of irresponsible bachelors, and who accordingly lamented the hostages that they themselves had long since given to fortune, often neglected without reason their families and so in time lost the affection that they had ceased to deserve.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-10
🔮 On housing prices: The San Franciscans at this moment, living in their rag palaces, or renting them at figures that would have sounded possible in the Arabian Nights . . . seemed more like madmen than ever.
2026-09-10 · Astral Codex Ten
Royce On San Francisco · assertive framing

Claims (66 extracted, 7 hedged)

On housing prices: The San Franciscans at this moment, living in their rag palaces, or renting them at figures that would have sounded possible in the Arabian Nights . . . seemed more like madmen than ever. asserted
that → live → madmen
A correspondent of the New York Post gives with a half-serious fury and contempt an amusing account of the landlords of San Francisco: asserted
correspondent → give → Francisco
A dozen times or more, during the last few weeks, I have been taken by the arm by some of the millionaires — so they call themselves, I call them madmen - of San Francisco, looking wondrously dirty and out at elbows for men of such magnificent pretensions. asserted
I → take → pretensions
They have dragged me about, through the mud and filth almost up to my middle, from one pine box to another, called mansion, hotel, bank, or store, as it may please the imagination, and have told me, with a sincerity that would have done credit to the Bedlamite, that these splendid structures were theirs, and they, the fortunate proprietors, were worth from two to three hundred thousand dollars a year each. uncertain
they → drag → Bedlamite
Their daily and most sober business was at best dangerously near gambling, and their nerves were constantly tormented by unnatural and yet for the time inevitable excitements of a perilously violent sort. asserted
nerves → torment → sort
Their life was as a rule comparatively sedentary and they worked far more with their brains than with their hands. asserted
they → work → hands
The San Franciscan of property and position . . . had all the mental labor that a man could need, and much more besides, [but] he had little or no true relaxation. uncertain
he → have → relaxation
Able and cultivated business men, who at home would have passed their evenings with their families or in some other pleasant social intercourse, or perchance in lecture rooms or in theaters, here toiled every night until ten or eleven o’clock over their accounts, and began afresh on each new morning, as soon as the light shone over the far-off blue summit of Mount Diablo, the old fierce struggle with the confusions of their business undertakings. asserted
light → pass → undertakings
The insane asylum, which the state had very early to equip at Stockton, gave ample proof of the effects of this terrible nervous strain. asserted
state → have → strain
Indirectly, however, one sees the same dangers illustrated even in the case of perfectly healthy and normal men, who stood the mental if not the moral strain as well as possible, and liked it. asserted
who → see → it
On the women: There were some women in the city, but they were not exactly respectable persons, yet they were the sole leaders of society. asserted
they → be → society
They too gave it even in later years a certain grace and gaiety that makes one speak of them, with a curious sort of reverence. asserted
one → give → reverence
Just as one cannot easily remember who the men were that did not gamble in those days, so one fails to recall in looking back on the early years the women who were respectable. asserted
who → remember → women
Doubtless such existed; but then they had that curious quality of respectable women — namely, they were somehow not conspicuous, especially in the public crowds. asserted
they → exist → crowds
Everyone has heard how, in San Francisco life, the family ties seemed sometimes almost as weak as the families were rare. asserted
families → hear → life
Some men seemed to prize their wives the less because of the very fact that there were in the country so few wives to prize ... asserted
men → seem → country
To speak of the matter first from the side of the women concerned themselves, one’s acquaintances could not always be strictly chosen, nor one’s conduct absolutely determined by arbitrary rules. uncertain
conduct → speak → rules
One had to adapt oneself to many people, to tolerate, in some people with whom one was thrown, many oddities, and much independence, so long as the essentials of good behavior and good purposes remained. asserted
essentials → have → behavior
The difficulty, however, for certain well-meaning but foolish among the younger women who found themselves in the midst of all this new life was to sacrifice some of the nonessentials of social intercourse, as they knew them, without sacrificing anything either of their own personal dignity or of their true delicacy of feeling. asserted
they → mean → feeling
Many such women failed to solve the problem. asserted
women → fail → problem
Little by little they sacrificed this or that petty prejudice which dignity would have counseled them to observe; and so erelong they were socially more or less distinctly and disastrously careless, both as to behavior and as to companionship. asserted
they → sacrifice → companionship
Men often prized their wives less because the wives grew thus foolishly lighthearted and were, on the whole, less to be prized. asserted
wives → prize → whole
If women fell into these unguarded habits, such as the custom of letting men who chanced to be their friends, and chanced to be lucky, give them, with careless Californian generosity, expensive presents on every occasion when these friends had made some new success in business, and if such “Californian” ways, however innocent in their beginning, led to misunderstandings in the end: still, on the other hand, husbands who found themselves absorbed in business rivalry with a community of irresponsible bachelors, and who accordingly lamented the hostages that they themselves had long since given to fortune, often neglected without reason their families and so in time lost the affection that they had ceased to deserve. asserted
they → fall → that
In short, as my mother (who, in the course of a few years, had occasion to hear of or to see a number of these broken California families) judged the too general trouble, it was one that might be said to lie in the lonesomeness of the families of a new land. uncertain
that → have → land
The family grows best in a garden with its kind. asserted
family → grow → kind
Where family life does not involve healthy friendship with other families, it is apt to be injured by unhealthy if well-meaning friendships with wanderers. asserted
it → involve → wanderers
On crime: A merchant named Jansen was assaulted and robbed in his own shop by two men, who came in the evening, pretending to be customers. asserted
who → name → evening
The crime, though not the first or the worst of its sort, seemed especially atrocious to the community, which chanced to be in a sensitive mood. asserted
which → seem → mood
The Alta, usually a very sober and sensible paper, became a trifle overexcited: “How many men shot and stabbed, knocked down and bruised; and who has been punished for it? asserted
who → become → it
Under these circumstances, however, who is to blame? asserted
who → blame → circumstances
The Alta, with an amusing unwisdom, proceeds to make the lawyers who defend criminals the first persons responsible for the trouble. asserted
who → proceed → trouble
‘We cannot see how any honest man, knowing or having reason to believe another guilty, can ransack heaven and earth for arguments for shielding him from punishment. asserted
another → see → punishment
Next to the lawyers, the courts and the police are most to blame. asserted
courts → blame → lawyers
On fraud: There were reasons why the public never learned just how much the energetic Meiggs had stolen. asserted
Meiggs → be → much
He never came back, and many people who lost by him felt henceforth a certain delicacy about explaining their relations with him. asserted
who → come → him
For the moment, however, Meiggs was regarded as an exemplary rascal, and men wondered how deep into the business life of San Francisco this sort of corruption had eaten. asserted
sort → regard → corruption
If Meiggs, people added, had only been content with cheating his bankers, one could have forgiven him; but, as report insisted, he had cheated his washerwoman. uncertain
he → add → washerwoman
That, men declared, was too bad, even for California. asserted
men → declare → California
Side by side with these wild memories of a society where every man and woman, without any notable exception, went to the devil on his or her own chosen primrose path, one has to record, as sober fact, taken from one’s newspapers, such things as a very goodly array of churches, supported by active and not poverty-stricken societies. asserted
one → go → societies
These societies have also done a large amount of charitable work; they have from the first established benevolent institutions, their exercises are well attended, and their undertakings well supported with money, so that, as one concludes: “We have said enough, we hope, to prove that not all, nor nigh all the citizens of San Francisco, are lost to everything but reckless dissipation. asserted
all → do → dissipation
…and 26 more, not listed.
💬 Give feedback
🕘 History 🎫 Support