In fact, the avowed separatist offers a blunt prediction for his side should Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum results confirm a loss.
asserted
results → offer → loss
“It will get stronger,” he told the Star.
asserted
he → get → Star
Even with eight days left in the campaign, in which Albertans must decide whether to set their province on the path to secession — a push that successive public polls suggest is destined to fail — the battle lines over future fights are already being drawn.
asserted
lines → leave → fights
The loudest independence organizers are setting their sights on Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and her United Conservative Party as the vehicle through which to push their agenda.
asserted
organizers → set → agenda
Anticipating that may happen, some federalists in the province are preparing to adapt their fight.
uncertain
federalists → anticipate → fight
So, while the majority of Albertans may choose to “stay” on Oct. 19, the push to leave will not end with the referendum.
uncertain
push → choose → referendum
“If you see what we see,” Sylvestre said of the independence movement, “you have two choices: either you capitulate or you accept it.
asserted
you → see → it
I don’t think people are going to accept it.”
asserted
people → think → it
Calls for separation have ebbed and flowed throughout Alberta’s 121-year history, swelling at times like the province’s glacier-fed rivers.
asserted
Calls → ebb → rivers
Always a minority opinion, the sentiment only ever saw one openly separatist MLA elected back in the 1980s during the height of anger over Ottawa’s long since dismantled National Energy Program.
asserted
MLA → see → Program
What’s different now, according to Cory Morgan, a longtime independence advocate who became a third-party advertiser during the referendum, is this campaign has “solidified the independence movement into something more cohesive than it’s ever been before.”
uncertain
it → ’ → something
With no clear leader, the campaign had the effect of cajoling otherwise “disparate voices,” largely speaking online, into something more organized.
asserted
campaign → have → something
Morgan pointed to the emergence of numerous third-party advertisers, each of which now has its own membership list, volunteers and ground organization.
asserted
each → point → list
“I do believe it’s made it stronger,” Morgan told the Star.
asserted
Morgan → believe → Star
Sylvestre’s group, the Alberta Prosperity Project, boasts in its handbook of having volunteers that range into the “thousands.”
asserted
that → boast → thousands
He told the Star they relied on 7,000 canvassers to collect 300,000 signatures that pushed the referendum issue.
asserted
that → tell → issue
Drew Barnes, a former UCP MLA who also served with the Wildrose Party, a predecessor to the UCP, agrees the movement will only become more entrenched after Oct. 19.
asserted
movement → serve → Oct.
“Look at how it’s grown,” he said.
asserted
he → look → ?
It was after a court decision quashed the independence petition drive that Smith announced in May she would put an independence question to Albertans in the form of two options.
uncertain
she → quash → options
The first, that Alberta should remain in Canada, or the second, that it should hold a binding vote on separation.
In the nearly 150 days since, federalist groups have scrambled to mobilize while separatist camps have tried to fill in the blanks about how leaving Canada could work — taking aim at a key criticism over how their unwieldy movement lacks any sort of plan or credibility.
uncertain
movement → remain → plan
‘We went really heavy on YouTube’
asserted
We → go → YouTube
Enter Keith Wilson, the constitutional lawyer best known for representing key organizers of the 2022 “Freedom Convoy” and a co-founder of the Alberta Transition Council, which released a 214-page plan outlining timelines and potential costs associated with seceding from Canada.
asserted
which → enter → Canada
His third-party advertising group, Let Alberta Decide, also raised more than $581,000, the most of any independence or federalist group.
asserted
group → let → group
Speaking to a recent town hall, Wilson described how writing economic reports was not their only strategy, but sought to drive more attention to their side by marketing in such a way that drew in eyeballs.
asserted
that → speak → eyeballs
“YouTube is a really good way to reach a lot of demographics, a lot of seniors or people who are my age, whose parents are in their 80s and 90s.
asserted
parents → reach → 80s
They say they’re able to do YouTube on their tablets, right?
asserted
they → say → tablets
So, we really went heavy on YouTube,” he told the room, according to an online video.
uncertain
he → go → video
Citing concerns about “voter integrity” in the upcoming vote, Wilson told the audience his group had been canvassing supporters for volunteers to act as scrutineers and had already submitted a list of 124 names, with another group to follow.
asserted
group → cite → group
While separatist organizers have criss-crossed the province holding town halls and rallies that have drawn hundreds of supporters, their movement remains a very online one.
asserted
movement → criss → supporters
Chris Ross, a senior analyst at the Canadian Digital Media Research Network who has been tracking the online activities of separatist accounts since the petition drive began, says artificial intelligence has played a major role in their messaging.
asserted
intelligence → track → messaging
“Their advertising strategy is this guerrilla marketing technique, where they really are leveraging technologies like AI in their campaign materials to kind of paint this idyllic post-Canada vision of what Alberta could look like.
uncertain
Alberta → leverage → what
”
While most of the accounts he sees are tied to Alberta, they also benefit from getting boosted by both Canadian and American conservative influencers, he said.
asserted
he → see → influencers
This week, Elon Musk, who has more than 240 million followers on X, threw his support behind not only Quebec independence, but also Saskatchewan and Alberta — a message some separatist leaders amplified.
asserted
leaders → have → independence
But the biggest shift separatists have undertaken is to say that the vote on Oct. 19 isn’t about separation at all.
asserted
vote → undertake → separation
“One question matters: who should decide Alberta’s future, Ottawa politicians or Albertans?” declares a radio ad taken out by Wilson’s group.
asserted
ad → matter → group
“Option 2 does not immediately separate Alberta.
asserted
Option → separate → Alberta
It begins the legal process toward a future binding referendum, with more debate and a final decision made by Albertans.”
asserted
It → begin → Albertans
Posting to X earlier in the week, Wilson also wrote, “You can want Alberta to stay in Canada and still vote Option 2” and “Not a separatist?
asserted
Alberta → post → Option
Federalists, including Conservative heavyweights like former Alberta premier Jason Kenney and Stephen Harper — the country’s last Conservative prime minister who championed the “West wants in” message — have cautioned frustrated Albertans against giving in to the temptation of using their vote to voice whatever long-standing displeasure they have against Ottawa out of the risk of the separation debate taking hold for years to come.
asserted
debate → include → years
They and others warn that the longer the province embroils itself in the issue, the larger the risk it leads to economic pain in the form of business and investment moving elsewhere.
asserted
business → warn → form
…and 27 more, not listed.
The Aporia
