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Story summary
Kemi Badenoch, the new Conservative Party leader, saw her party's support rise by three points according to a recent Opinium poll. This boost came after she pledged during the Tory conference to slash inheritance tax. The poll also showed that 35% of respondents viewed her speech positively, more than double those who did not like it (14%), with 54% having no clear view. Despite this uptick, Labour remains ahead at 29%, while the Conservatives are at 23%. The potential for a snap election has intensified due to volatility in individual seats, which could give Labour around 336 MPs, the Conservatives about 114 MPs, and Reform roughly 105 MPs according to Electoral Calculus estimates. Andy Burnham, leader of Labour, is trying to downplay the possibility of an imminent election, but Badenoch asserts that the Tories must be prepared for one at "any point."
Written for “UK Politics Tax Reform” on 2026-10-11,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
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Leaning: centre for article 71764 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-11
Kemi Badenoch looks to have secured a poll bounce from Tory conference as snap election fever grips Westminster.
asserted
fever → look → Westminster
The Conservatives were up three points in the latest research from Opinium, giving an early sign that the leader's pledge to slash inheritance tax went down well with voters.
asserted
pledge → give → voters
A third of the public viewed Mrs Badenoch's big speech positively, more than double the 14 per cent who did not like it - although 54 per cent did not have a clear view.
asserted
cent → view → view
Labour maintained a significant lead in the survey, which was carried out between Wednesday and Friday last week.
asserted
which → maintain → Wednesday
That split could be enough to get a small majority at a general election, although it would be a huge gamble for the PM as the picture in individual seats is extremely volatile.
uncertain
picture → get → seats
Electoral Calculus estimates it might give Labour 336 MPs, the Tories 114 and Reform 105.
uncertain
Reform → estimate → MPs
Kemi Badenoch looks to have secured a poll bounce from Tory conference as snap election fever grips Westminster
The Conservatives were up three points in the latest research from Opinium, giving an early sign that the leader's pledge to slash inheritance tax went down well with voters
asserted
pledge → look → voters
Mrs Badenoch has told the Mail on Sunday the Tories must be ready for an election 'at any point', dismissing Mr Burnham's desperate efforts to quash the idea
Mrs Badenoch has told the Mail on Sunday the Tories must be ready for an election 'at any point', dismissing Mr Burnham's desperate efforts to quash the idea.
asserted
Tories → tell → idea
Strategists suspect that the PM will be tempted to strike while he is in a honeymoon period and the Greens are in disarray.
asserted
Greens → suspect → disarray
Zack Polanski was humiliated last week when he failed to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, and is struggling to contain anger at the Greens' 'Zionism is Racism' conference motion.
asserted
Zionism → humiliate → motion
The party's poll ratings have halved this year, with voters seemingly returning to Labour under Mr Burnham.
Opinium found Mr Polanski's personal ratings fell another seven points over the past week, to a net score of minus 29.
asserted
ratings → halve → minus
That makes him the most unpopular main party leader.
asserted
him → make → ?
Mrs Badenoch's aides were even on alert during Labour conference in case Mr Burnham used his speech to trigger a contest.
asserted
Burnham → use → contest
Some believe a pre-Christmas election is not out of the question.
asserted
election → believe → question
The Tories have been holding election meetings since July, with a draft manifesto and campaign 'grid' – detailing the seats Mrs Badenoch will visit and public appearances she will make – in place.
asserted
she → hold → place
Mrs Badenoch said: 'We know there's a battle of ideas coming in British politics and I've instructed the Conservative Party to be ready for an election at any point.
asserted
I → say → point
Zack Polanski was humiliated last week when he failed to win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election
Opinium found the Conservatives' image has improved across every metric since August
'
asserted
image → humiliate → August
When that election comes there will be a simple choice between Conservative plans to get Britain working again and a Labour party that keeps putting up taxes, refuses to cut welfare and won't fund our defence.'
asserted
that → come → defence
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: 'Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch both delivered commanding speeches, secured positive headlines and boosted their parties' vote shares.
asserted
Burnham → say → shares
'Together, the two main parties now have their highest combined share in almost two years.
asserted
parties → have → years
The question is whether this is as good as it gets for the old guard, or the beginning of a genuine trend.'
asserted
it → get → trend
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