Surprise poll shows support surge for LA mayoral candidate among key voters

Read the original at New York Post ↗
New York Post · collected 2026-10-10 · by Titus Wu

Quick Summary

A recent poll commissioned by an independent group supporting Mayor Karen Bass shows she has a 12-point lead over mayoral challenger Nithya Raman among Latino voters in Los Angeles, with 40% support compared to Raman's 28%. Conducted from October 1 to 8 and including responses from 602 Latino voters, the poll contrasts sharply with an earlier survey that gave Raman a significant lead. The new results highlight Bass’s strength among Spanish-speaking voters and older Latinos, while Raman has support mainly in West Los Angeles and among younger voters.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-10, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

A recent poll by BSP Research reveals Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass leading mayoral challenger Nithya Raman among Latino voters with a 12-point advantage, at 40% to Raman’s 28%, according to the independent expenditure group Unidos Con Karen Bass. The survey contradicts another poll showing Raman's strong lead. Among Spanish-speaking Latinos and those over age 50, Bass leads significantly; however, Raman has support among younger voters under 40 years old. Regionally, Bass holds an edge in downtown LA, South Los Angeles, and the San Fernando Valley, while Raman leads in West LA. The East side remains contested.

Written for “LA Mayoral Poll Results Surprising” on 2026-10-11, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.
No political leaning scored for article 71256 · logged 2026-10-10

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
16
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
12%
2 of 16 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
67.1
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-10 · how these are computed

Story

📰 LA Mayoral Poll Results Surprising
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
New York Post · 0.86 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 24 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles describe different polls with conflicting results released at different times.”

Publisher

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Running correction rate · 29 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Titus Wu
44 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has a 12-point advantage over mayoral challenger Nithya Raman among Latino voters, according to a new poll — contradicting another recent survey that showed Raman with a commanding lead among Latinos.
🔮 But if they’re not addressed by the staff, they will be addressed by this board.
🔮 She added that future operations will need safeguards in place for residents without compromising investigations.
🔮 The Bay Area city of Walnut Creek has a homeownership program that will offer three homes to households with at least three to four people that meet “very low” to “low” income requirements — all for prices ranging from just $262,750 to $377,000.
🔮 California’s largest state workers’ union is following through on a threat to strike in a major escalation of an ongoing feud over wages, benefits and remote work with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration that could affect some government services.
🔮 Prop 39, if approved by voters, would require California voters to show ID at the polls and other verification for mail-in ballots.
🔮 “This is maybe the saddest thing I’ve read on this site.”
🔮 California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed more than 1,000 bills in his final year as governor, introducing new regulations, penalties and programs that will not only leave a significant impact on Californians.
🔮 “We respect our advisory Parks Commission, but will disagree with their action and proceed accordingly with the community-supported name change to Union Plaza,” he said in a statement.
🔮 The second round of allegations prompted many allies who stuck with him to back down, including Mayor Daniel Lurie.
Also by Titus Wu
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 44 articles by Titus Wu →

Topics

BSP Research Latino Latinos Los Angeles Unidos Con Karen Bass

Subjects

Raman PERSON · 11× Bass PERSON · 8× Latinos NORP · 6× Latino NORP · 4× Los Angeles GPE · 4× BSP Research ORG · 2× Assembly ORG · 1× Karen Bass PERSON · 1× Nithya Raman PERSON · 1× Unidos Con Karen Bass ORG · 1×

Narrative

The political battle has intensified since voters were surveyed in that poll, with the candidates clashing over police, immigration enforcement and Raman’s judgment after she appeared in a since-deleted social media video featuring the words “Only you can stop fascist liars.”
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-10
🔮 Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has a 12-point advantage over mayoral challenger Nithya Raman among Latino voters, according to a new poll — contradicting another recent survey that showed Raman with a commanding lead among Latinos.
2026-10-10 · New York Post
Surprise poll shows support surge for LA mayoral candidate among key voters · assertive framing

Claims (16 extracted, 2 hedged)

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has a 12-point advantage over mayoral challenger Nithya Raman among Latino voters, according to a new poll — contradicting another recent survey that showed Raman with a commanding lead among Latinos. uncertain
that → have → Latinos
The Friday poll from BSP Research — done on behalf of Unidos Con Karen Bass, an independent expenditure group supporting the mayor — showed Bass leading with 40% support among Latinos to Raman’s 28%, with 32% still undecided. asserted
% → do → %
The poll is “showing real momentum heading into the final weeks of the campaign,” declared former Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, who has endorsed Bass. asserted
who → show → Bass
According to the poll, Bass’s lead among Latinos was strongest among Spanish-speaking voters, giving the incumbent a whopping 32 percentage-point lead over Raman. uncertain
lead → accord → Raman
Angelenos aged 50 and older supported Raman at a 53% rate, compared to 17% for Raman. asserted
Angelenos → age → Raman
Those under 40 were more evenly split between the two candidates, with each gaining just 35% support from that demographic. asserted
each → split → demographic
Regionally, Bass’s Latino support was strongest in downtown AL, in South Los Angeles and in the San Fernando Valley, the survey showed. asserted
survey → show → Valley
Raman led among Latinos in west Los Angeles. asserted
Raman → lead → Angeles
The survey was conducted Oct. 1 to 8 among 602 Latino voters. asserted
survey → conduct → voters
Latinos are the largest ethnic group in Los Angeles and expected to make up close to 30% of all ballots. asserted
Latinos → expect → ballots
The results clash with a bombshell Oct. 2 poll showing Raman with a stunning 24-point lead over Bass among Latinos. asserted
results → clash → Latinos
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll, conducted Sept. 15–20 and published Oct. 2, found Raman leading Bass 45% to 21%. asserted
Raman → conduct → Bass
The Berkeley poll did map out the same trend of Bass dominating with older Latino votes and Raman potentially having an edge with younger voters. asserted
Raman → map → voters
The political battle has intensified since voters were surveyed in that poll, with the candidates clashing over police, immigration enforcement and Raman’s judgment after she appeared in a since-deleted social media video featuring the words “Only you can stop fascist liars.” asserted
you → intensify → liars
The feud erupted Thursday when Bass blasted Raman as “incredibly irresponsible” and questioned whether her challenger, a Democratic socialist, was ready to lead Los Angeles. asserted
challenger → erupt → Angeles
The California Post reached out to Matt Barreto, who leads the poll’s conductor BSP Research, for comment. asserted
who → reach → comment
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