The Democrats are surging as the U.S. midterms near.
asserted
midterms → surge → ?
Here's the data that has Trump's Republicans spooked
Traditionally 'red' states are suddenly in play as president's popularity craters, various polls show
The upcoming midterm elections are a crucial test for U.S. President Donald Trump and the party he's dominated for the past decade — and early data points suggest it could be something of a bloodbath for the Republicans come November.
uncertain
it → have → Republicans
Poll after poll released in recent days suggests the Democrats are poised to make major gains among voters who, only two years ago, would have never given the party a chance.
uncertain
who → release → chance
Large swaths of the American electorate appear to be souring on Trump, who returned to power promising lower prices and no more foreign wars — but instead delivered higher prices and a war on Iran in the first two years of his second mandate.
asserted
who → appear → mandate
Inflation is also running hotter than it was in January 2025, when Trump's second term began — which is significant because his predecessor, Joe Biden, also presided over an era of higher consumer prices.
asserted
predecessor → run → prices
Researchers say Trump's tariffs have only worsened affordability; without them, prices might have actually fallen slightly, affirming what many economists long predicted.
uncertain
economists → say → what
Oil and diesel costs have spiked partly because of the war on Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the latter of which he promised to solve within 24 hours of taking office but has since struggled to help end.
asserted
he → spike → office
After some early victories — stopping the surge of migrants with his border policies, and brokering peace deals — Trump's popularity has plummeted.
asserted
popularity → stop → deals
One number-cruncher says Trump is now the most unpopular Republican president since Herbert Hoover, whom historians generally regard as a failure given how he governed during the Great Depression.
asserted
he → say → Depression
"These are historically low approval ratings, like below Richard Nixon at the height of Watergate, and that really doesn't augur well for Trump and his party," said Asa McKercher, the Hudson Chair in Canada-U.S. Relations at the Brian Mulroney Institute of Government.
asserted
McKercher → augur → Government
"Not only is Trump unpopular but so are his policies, which have not borne out or bared any fruit.
asserted
which → bear → fruit
That's why he is floating what McKercher calls "gimmicks" such as $5,000 cheques for every adult if the Republicans retain power in the midterms.
asserted
Republicans → float → midterms
"There's a sense of desperation there," McKercher said.
asserted
McKercher → be → desperation
Some Republicans distancing themselves
While Trump has repeatedly told his supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot," thinking it will boost Republican fortunes in these congressional races, some of the party's candidates are distancing themselves given how toxic the president is in certain circles.
asserted
president → distance → circles
Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, who closely aligned himself with Trump in the past, released a new campaign ad Wednesday denouncing the president's trade war with Canada.
asserted
who → align → Canada
Just this summer, Rogers said Canadians "have not been good partners," but that was before polling showed the vast majority of Americans are opposed to tariffs on their northern neighbour.
asserted
majority → say → neighbour
Politico found only 26 per cent of Americans surveyed think the Canadian tariffs are the right thing to do.
asserted
tariffs → find → Americans
Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent running in Maine's tight Senate race, has said something similar about tariffs, while strongly suggesting she doesn't want Trump to campaign in her state.
"I’m not exactly his favourite senator," she said in a debate Tuesday.
asserted
she → run → debate
More Americans now identify as Democrat
Perhaps the most revealing recent data point is the dramatic swing in how voters identify themselves when Gallup pollsters ask them to pick between the two parties.
asserted
pollsters → identify → parties
For much of the last four years, Republicans held a clear edge.
asserted
Republicans → hold → edge
Now, the Democrats hold a double-digit lead as some voters reject a party they thought would deliver better economic results, temper inflation and bring about peace.
asserted
they → hold → peace
Mark Bednar, a former spokesperson for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy who now works as a Republican strategist, said all is not lost for the party — Trump is still hugely popular among the MAGA base and he's defied the odds before.
asserted
he → work → odds
But he said the party needs to urgently address what he calls the "enthusiasm gap," in which Democrats are much more motivated to turn out and vote than their Republican counterparts this year.
asserted
Democrats → say → counterparts
Bednar said there's one big bright spot for the Republicans that can help get those people fired up and off to the polls: a massive fundraising advantage.
asserted
people → say → polls
Trump alone sits on a roughly $400-million campaign war chest that he can deploy in the closing weeks of this campaign to blanket the airwaves with ads and help boost candidates in tight races.
asserted
he → sit → races
"The Republicans have a huge financial advantage and that gives them the opportunity to actually get out there, get your message on the airwaves and tell your story as a Republican and prosecute the case against Democrats," Bednar told CBC News.
asserted
Bednar → have → News
"The closer we get to these midterms, the closer the margins will be in some of these races."
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press at the White House.
asserted
Trump → get → House
The Republicans have a huge financial advantage, which could help them close the polling gap with the Democrats.
uncertain
them → have → Democrats
Reliably 'red' states in play, polls suggest
These midterm elections will decide who controls the balance of power in Washington.
asserted
who → suggest → Washington
Despite state-level efforts by Republicans to gerrymander the maps in their favour, polls suggest the party is poised to lose the House of Representatives — the final result could be relatively lopsided even with the creative map-making — and possibly the Senate.
uncertain
result → gerrymander → making
On the face of it, the electoral map this year looks unfavourable to the Democrats, with many contests in reliably Republican states.
asserted
map → look → states
But the most recent New York Times-Siena poll, which politicos watch closely given its past accuracy, shows states long thought of as "red" ones are in play.
asserted
states → watch → play
Kansas, for example, hasn't returned a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but the Siena poll (and others) shows it could break that nearly century-old trend.
uncertain
it → return → trend
Farmers in particular have paid a dear price for Trump's trade war.
asserted
Farmers → pay → war
Anyone who relies on a tractor or combine to get their products to market knows diesel prices have doubled on Trump's watch.
asserted
prices → rely → watch
In the Republican crown jewel of Texas — where Trump beat Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the last presidential election by nearly 14 percentage points — new Siena data shows Democrat James Talarico has a six-point lead over the embattled Republican Ken Paxton.
asserted
Talarico → beat → Paxton
Polls reveal why there has been such a dramatic shift in that historically ruby-red state: Hispanic voters are turning away from the Republicans.
asserted
voters → reveal → Republicans
According to exit polls from the 2024 presidential election, 55 per cent of Hispanics in Texas voted for Trump.
uncertain
cent → accord → Trump
But just 34 per cent of Hispanics surveyed say they will back Paxton in this campaign, according to YouGov.
uncertain
they → survey → YouGov
About 64 per cent of Hispanics disapprove of the job Trump's done to this point.
asserted
Trump → disapprove → point
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
