While US President Donald Trump is again lobbying to win the Nobel Peace Prize, a number of frontrunners have emerged who experts say are far more likely to win the award.
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experts → lobby → award
This year's winner will be announced in Oslo later today and the Norwegian Nobel Committee has 287 nominations.
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Committee → announce → nominations
The prize is awarded annually to people or organisations who have done the most to promote peace between nations.
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who → award → nations
Nominations are not public but the acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Haakon Gjerløw, who is considered a top analyst of the Nobel Peace Prize, has tipped five leading contenders.
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who → act → contenders
Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children
A Ukrainian children's rights advocate, Mykola Kuleba has devoted much of the last two decades to saving kids in his country from threats like human trafficking and cyberbullying.
Since Russia's invasion of Crimea and Donbas in 2014, he has led efforts to deliver emergency aid and evacuation assistance to Ukrainians deported by Russia from the occupied territories.
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he → devote → territories
Mr Kuleba co-founded rescue charity Save Ukraine, later concentrating on the return of vulnerable civilians including children, orphans and families after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
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- → co → 2022
He previously led efforts to recognise and expand the rights of minors in Ukraine, serving as the country's children's ombudsman, head of the Kyiv Children's Service and co-founder of the Ukraine Without Orphans Alliance.
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He → lead → Alliance
Mr Gjerløw said both the work of Mr Kuleba and Save the Children emphasised the need to protect children in war.
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work → say → war
Civil war-hit Sudan is in the midst of a major humanitarian crisis, with food, water and medical supplies in short supply.
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food → hit → supply
Community-led initiatives like the Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) have stepped in to fill the gap and deliver essential humanitarian assistance to millions.
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initiatives → lead → millions
Led by a grassroots network of Sudanese civilians, the ERRs have been instrumental in setting up communal kitchens, supporting evacuations, fixing vital communications infrastructure and supplying essential resources like clean water, fuel and medical supplies.
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ERRs → lead → water
Most aren't legally registered but receive funding from Sudanese residents, charitie, and international development agencies.
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Most → register → residents
Mr Gjerløw said awarding this year's peace prize to Sudan's ERRs would highlight the power of everyday people to serve humanity in difficult times of conflict.
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awarding → say → conflict
The Committee to Protect Journalists
This US-based watchdog group has continued to defend the rights of journalists in an increasingly hostile global environment.
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group → base → environment
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) keeps an annual register of the number of journalists and media workers killed around the world.
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Committee → keep → world
In 2025, that number hit a record 129, the highest since they started compiling records more than three decades ago.
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they → hit → records
Gaza became the deadliest war zone for reporters in modern history, according to the CPJ.
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Gaza → become → CPJ
Mr Gjerløw said awarding this group a Nobel Peace Prize would send the world a reminder that peace and democracy were threatened if journalists were prevented from doing their jobs.
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journalists → say → jobs
Perhaps an outsider for the award, both literally and figuratively, Mr Gjerløw believes there's some merit to this one.
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Gjerløw → believe → one
Orbiting about 400 kilometres above Earth, the ISS represents a rare symbol of global cooperation amid crumbling multilateralism and narrowing national interests, according to Mr Gjerløw.
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ISS → orbit → Gjerløw
The product of space agencies from the US, Russia, Canada, Japan and the European Union, the ISS launched in 1998 and has since been visited by 222 astronauts from as many as 18 countries.
It has been continuously occupied since November 2000.
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It → launch → November
A Nobel Peace Prize for the ISS would celebrate what humanity could achieve when working together, Mr Gjerløw said.
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Gjerløw → celebrate → what
The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court
Multilateral collaboration was the underlying theme in Mr Gjerløw peace prize picks.
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Court → underlie → picks
He said both institutions remained crucial for maintaining global order in an increasingly fragmented world.
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institutions → say → world
Established in 1945, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) settles legal disputes between states from its headquarters in The Hague.
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Court → establish → Hague
While its rulings can be difficult to enforce with no formal enforcement mechanism, the ICJ remains a globally accepted system for dispute resolution.
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ICJ → enforce → resolution
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is also based in The Hague and has the power to prosecute individuals for international crimes including genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes.
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Court → base → humanity
Mr Gjerløw said both organisations would be deserving of the peace prize as they represented the importance of holding states and leaders accountable to international law.
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states → say → law
Who did he pick last year?
Mr Gjerløw is only the acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, so did not put forward his own list in 2025.
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Gjerløw → pick → 2025
Then-director Nina Græger's predictions were largely similar but did not include eventual winner Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who gifted her peace prize to Mr Trump.
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who → include → Trump
Ms Græger's picks were limited to organisations and included human Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, and The Carter Center, a human rights organisation founded by former US president Jimmy Carter.
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picks → limit → Carter
She also tipped the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom, the CPJ, Sudan's ERRs and both the ICJ and the ICC.
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She → tip → Peace
When will we know the winner?
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we → know → winner
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is due to announce this year's peace prize winner at 8pm AEST tonight.
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Committee → announce → AEST
The Aporia
