After nearly two weeks of fierce fighting, Ethiopian federal forces entered the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle as forces from an alliance of rebel groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), withdrew from the city.
asserted
forces → enter → city
The fighting that erupted late last month has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire and the fragile peace that followed the devastating Tigray war.
asserted
that → erupt → war
But Mekelle’s capture may mark the end of conventional warfare rather than the end of the conflict.
uncertain
capture → mark → conflict
Fighting has continued elsewhere in Tigray, while reports of Eritrean troops entering northern Tigrayan towns have added a potentially more dangerous regional dimension.
asserted
troops → continue → dimension
Ethiopian federal forces used air power and ground forces to advance across Tigray.
asserted
forces → use → Tigray
After suffering successive defeats around the towns of Alamata and Kobo, rebel forces withdrew into the surrounding countryside.
asserted
forces → suffer → countryside
They have pledged to continue fighting.
asserted
They → pledge → ?
“We will confront the enemy on our terms and where we choose,” TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said.
asserted
Gebremichael → confront → terms
A war that may not be over
There are echoes of the war that began in 2020, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government declared victory after federal forces captured Mekelle.
uncertain
forces → be → Mekelle
Tigrayan forces subsequently regrouped in the mountains, retook much of the region and recaptured the capital, prolonging the war for nearly a year and a half.
asserted
forces → regroup → year
The renewed conflict could follow a similar trajectory, particularly if the TPLF and other armed groups succeed in turning the mountainous terrain into a prolonged armed rebellion.
uncertain
TPLF → renew → rebellion
Ethiopia is already fighting insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, raising the prospect of its federal forces being stretched across multiple fronts.
asserted
forces → fight → fronts
But the battlefield reversals suffered by the rebels could have implications well beyond Tigray.
uncertain
reversals → suffer → Tigray
They have raised concern in Egypt and among other Ethiopian rivals, according to Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an African analyst at the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute.
uncertain
They → raise → Institute
“Egypt views the Renaissance Dam, and any Ethiopian [army] move towards the Red Sea, as a strategic threat, so it has allied with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia against any Ethiopian unilateralism,” Ibrahim told Al Jazeera.
asserted
Ibrahim → view → Jazeera
“Ethiopia is seeking a sea outlet; Eritrea sees this as an existential threat.”
asserted
Eritrea → seek → threat
Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea won its war of independence in 1991, leaving Addis Ababa heavily dependent on neighbouring countries for access to international trade.
asserted
Eritrea → win → trade
Abiy has increasingly made access to the Red Sea a strategic priority since 2023, raising concerns in Eritrea over Ethiopia’s ambitions, particularly over the port of Assab.
asserted
access → make → Assab
Ethiopia currently relies heavily on Djibouti for maritime trade, while also pursuing alternative arrangements, including through Kenya and Somaliland.
asserted
Ethiopia → rely → Kenya
After being sworn in on Monday for another five-year term following his party’s victory in the June 1 election, Abiy again put the issue at the centre of his parliamentary address.
asserted
Abiy → swear → address
“Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea,” he told parliament.
asserted
he → base → parliament
The issue has increasingly become part of a wider regional contest.
asserted
issue → become → contest
In recent months, Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia have found themselves sharing concerns over Ethiopia’s regional ambitions.
asserted
themselves → find → ambitions
On October 4, the leaders of the four countries met for a quadrilateral consultative summit in New Alamein, Egypt, where they discussed regional issues and pledged to strengthen political, economic and trade cooperation as well as consultation and coordination.
asserted
they → meet → cooperation
The meeting does not amount to a formal military alliance, and the four countries have different interests in their dealings with Addis Ababa.
asserted
countries → amount → Ababa
The summit’s joint declaration also called for respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, noninterference in internal affairs and the peaceful resolution of disputes.
asserted
declaration → call → disputes
But their concerns increasingly overlap around Ethiopia’s ambitions in the Red Sea, the Nile and the wider Horn of Africa.
asserted
concerns → overlap → Africa
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also deteriorated sharply since the Pretoria ceasefire.
asserted
Relations → deteriorate → ceasefire
Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and expelled Eritrean diplomats on October 1, accusing Asmara of hostile acts and involvement in the renewed fighting.
asserted
Ethiopia → close → fighting
Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties, while denying that it supported the opposition alliance.
asserted
it → respond → alliance
Egypt and Sudan have also denied Ethiopian accusations that they are backing the alliance.
asserted
they → deny → alliance
The Ethiopian army’s advance into Tigray has added another layer to that rivalry.
“The [Ethiopian army’s] advance in Tigray directly threatens [Eritrean President] Isaias [Afwerki] and the Eritrean state,” said Etana H Dinka, an assistant professor of African history at the University of Miami.
asserted
Dinka → add → Miami
Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian troops during the 2020–22 Tigray war, but relations between Abiy and Isaias have since deteriorated.
asserted
relations → fight → Abiy
Eritrean troops have reportedly been seen in towns in northern Tigray, adding a potentially significant new dimension to the conflict.
uncertain
troops → see → conflict
The Associated Press news agency reported Eritrean troops entering Adigrat and Idaga Hamus after crossing into Ethiopia, while Eritrea has neither confirmed nor denied the troop movements.
asserted
Eritrea → report → movements
Eritrea’s role could be decisive
For Eritrea, the location of the fighting matters as much as its outcome.
uncertain
location → matter → outcome
A prolonged conflict in Tigray could keep Ethiopian forces tied down and limit Addis Ababa’s ability to pursue its Red Sea ambitions.
uncertain
conflict → keep → ambitions
But a decisive Ethiopian victory could leave the federal government with greater freedom to turn its attention towards regional rivals.
uncertain
victory → leave → rivals
“With reports that Eritrean troops are moving into Tigray, Eritrea seems keen on boosting TPLF forces withdrawing northwards, so that the engagement between Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers takes place in Tigrayan territory, and not in Eritrea,” said Mohamed Kheir Omer, a researcher focused on the Horn of Africa.
asserted
Omer → move → Africa
That could create an incentive for Eritrea to support forces capable of keeping the Ethiopian army tied down, without necessarily entering a direct confrontation of its own.
uncertain
Eritrea → create → own
…and 23 more, not listed.
The Aporia
