Treasury's inheritance tax windfall to double in five years - as polling reveals public support for Kemi Badenoch's plan to cut it

Read the original at Daily Mail ↗
Daily Mail · collected 2026-10-08 · by Jason Groves

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Story summary

Inheritance tax receipts are predicted to double from £7 billion last year to £15 billion by 2031 unless changes are made, according to a report by the think tank Onward. At the Conservative Party conference, Kemi Badenoch announced plans to cut inheritance taxes, including exempting family homes regardless of value and allowing couples to pass on an additional £1 million in assets tax-free. A YouGov poll found that 61% support exempting family homes from inheritance tax, with even strong backing among Liberal Democrat voters at 50%.

Written for “UK Inheritance Tax Reform Plan” on 2026-10-09, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.25, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 66928: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-08

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
36
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
3%
1 of 36 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
64.5
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-08 · how these are computed

Story

📰 UK Inheritance Tax Reform Plan
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 3% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 26 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A discusses a broader deregulation plan including lowering taxes and speeding up development, while Article B focuses specifically on public support for inheritance tax cuts announced at the Conservative Party conference.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 25% hedged 4 of 16 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A describes Kemi Badenoch's initial hints about potential inheritance tax changes during the Tory conference, while Article B discusses a report on expected future inheritance tax receipts and public support for announced reforms, referencing an event from Wednesday which likely followed the hints mentioned in Article A.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 1 of 11 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A discusses a keynote speech and battle for tax-cutting promises at the Tory conference, while Article B specifically mentions Kemi Badenoch unveiling radical plans to slash inheritance tax on Wednesday during the same event.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 23 📰 publisher trust 66
“While both articles discuss Kemi Badenoch's announcement about cutting inheritance tax, Article A focuses on her speech and broader policy direction, while Article B reports on a study predicting increased inheritance tax revenue and public support for the proposed cuts. They describe different aspects of related but distinct events.”
BBC News
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 38 📰 publisher trust 72
“Article A describes Kemi Badenoch's speech and pledges at the Conservative Party conference, while Article B discusses a report on inheritance tax receipts and public support for her plans, not the same specific incident.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 43 📰 publisher trust 64
“While both articles discuss Kemi Badenoch's pledge to cut inheritance tax on family homes, they describe different aspects of the announcement: Article A focuses on the specifics of the policy and its impact on middle-class families, while Article B emphasizes polling data and future projections of inheritance tax receipts without detailing the same specific policy announcement.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 8% hedged 1 of 13 📰 publisher trust 64
“While both articles discuss Kemi Badenoch's push to cut inheritance tax and public support for it, they describe different aspects of the event: one focuses on polling data while the other highlights a report on expected future inheritance tax receipts.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 2 of 22 📰 publisher trust 64
“Article A describes Kemi Badenoch dropping hints about a pledge to scrap inheritance tax at the Tory conference, while Article B discusses polling and Treasury reports related to inheritance tax windfall doubling in five years and public support for cutting it. These are different aspects of the same topic but describe separate events.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 13% hedged 3 of 23 📰 publisher trust 64
“While both articles discuss inheritance tax and Kemi Badenoch's announcement at the Conservative Party conference, they describe different aspects of the event: one focuses on Andrew Griffith's admission about immediate tax cuts being unlikely, while the other reports on public support for proposed reforms.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 14% hedged 2 of 14 📰 publisher trust 64
“While both articles discuss Kemi Badenoch's announcement about cutting inheritance tax at a Conservative Party conference, they do not describe the exact same incident in terms of timing and detail. Article A sets up the speech and its content, while Article B reports on public reaction and forecasts based on the announcement made on Wednesday.”

Publisher

Daily Mail · 4481 article(s) · 13 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 13 correction(s)
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Clarifications and corrections

Who wrote this

Jason Groves
36 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Inheritance tax receipts are set to double within five years, a new report has warned – as polling revealed public support for Tory plans to cut it.
🔮 She promised to reverse the rise in the number of middle-class families hit by death duties, telling the party conference a Conservative government would exempt the family home from the levy, regardless of its value.
🔮 Kemi Badenoch is set to unveil a new ‘rescue package for young people’ on Wednesday aimed at reversing the slide in entry level jobs under Labour.
🔮 And she mocked Andy Burnham's extraordinary claim that defence spending would not come at a cost to those on benefits, telling the Prime Minister there was 'no social security without national security'.
🔮 Britain's biggest environmental quangos could be scrapped as part of a new Tory war on red tape designed to boost growth.
🔮 Andy Burnham's plans to reverse Brexit could push up immigration by more than 200,000 a year it was claimed - after Emmanuel Macron told him Britain would have to accept free movement.
🔮 The Tory leader has ended speculation she could follow Andy Burnham in ditching the mechanism which has helped protect the value of the basic state pension for years.
🔮 G7 countries including Britain, France and Germany said they would release up to 100 million barrels starting immediately after the US threatened a diesel export ban.
🔮 Vowing to reverse Labour's soft-justice approach, the Conservative leader has signed off proposals to build 50,000 new prison places, increasing the size of the estate by more than 50 per cent. The scheme will be funded mainly by slashing the foreign aid budget to just £1billion a year.
Also by Jason Groves
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 36 articles by Jason Groves →

Topics

Conservative Party Conservatives Labour Onward Tory

Subjects

Labour NORP · 6× Tory NORP · 6× Conservatives NORP · 3× Kemi Badenoch PERSON · 2× Onward ORG · 2× Badenoch PERSON · 1× Conservative NORP · 1× Conservative Party ORG · 1× Reform ORG · 1× YouGov ORG · 1×

Narrative

But receipts are due to rise even more quickly in the coming years because of other changes introduced by Labour, such as including some farmland for the first time and taking into account pension pots from next year.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-08
🔮 Inheritance tax receipts are set to double within five years, a new report has warned – as polling revealed public support for Tory plans to cut it.

Claims (36 extracted, 1 hedged)

Inheritance tax receipts are set to double within five years, a new report has warned – as polling revealed public support for Tory plans to cut it. asserted
polling → set → it
A study by the think tank Onward reveals that the taxman is expected to take £15 billion in inheritance tax by 2031 – up from £7 billion last year – unless urgent reforms are introduced. asserted
reforms → reveal → billion
Kemi Badenoch electrified the Conservative Party conference on Wednesday by unveiling radical plans to slash the hated tax. asserted
Badenoch → electrify → tax
Tory reforms would exempt the family home from inheritance tax, regardless of its value. asserted
reforms → exempt → value
Mrs Badenoch also announced plans to allow couples to pass on an additional £1 million in assets tax-free, slashing the number of families who would be hit by the death tax. asserted
who → announce → tax
The Tory leader said the desire to pass on the family home 'is one of the most human instincts of all' and should not be preyed on by the taxman. asserted
desire → say → taxman
New polling by YouGov found the public back the Tory plan to exempt the family home from inheritance tax by a margin of 61:18. asserted
public → find → 61:18
The survey of more than 6,000 adults found support strongest among Conservative and Reform supporters, with 85 per cent of Tory voters in favour. asserted
cent → find → favour
But it also revealed strong support among Lib Dem voters, who the Conservatives are trying to win over and who backed the idea by 61:22. asserted
who → reveal → 61:22
Even Labour and Green voters support the idea, with Labour supporters backing it by 48:30. asserted
supporters → support → 48:30
Some critics of the plan have argued that the policy would unfairly benefit voters in London and the south where house prices are higher. asserted
prices → argue → London
But the polling shows support for exempting the family home in all parts of the country. asserted
polling → show → country
In the north, the idea was backed by a margin of 57:19. asserted
idea → back → 57:19
Tax cut: Kemi Badenoch said the Tories would exempt the family home from death duties The new report by Onward reveals a sharp rise in the impact of inheritance tax. asserted
report → say → tax
HMRC data shows that receipts rose to a record £7 billion, partly as a result of a longstanding freeze in the threshold for paying it, which Labour has now extended until at least 2031. asserted
Labour → show → 2031
But receipts are due to rise even more quickly in the coming years because of other changes introduced by Labour, such as including some farmland for the first time and taking into account pension pots from next year. asserted
receipts → rise → year
Inheritance tax receipts are now set to jump to £12.6 billion by 2030, when an estimated 52,000 estates will be hit. asserted
estates → set → 2030
This equates to around one in 12 of all estates – three times the proportion hit in 2009 when the current threshold was set. asserted
threshold → equate → 2009
The following year, revenues are expected to hit £15 billion – double the current level. asserted
revenues → expect → billion
Shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith said: 'Inheritance tax was meant to be a tax for the super rich. asserted
tax → say → rich
But it has ended up being a tax on Middle England. asserted
it → end → England
And under Labour, more and more families are being dragged into the net. ' asserted
families → drag → net
We have been clear: under the Conservatives there will be no stamp duty when you buy your home, no 'Mansion Tax' when you live in it, and no inheritance tax when you pass it on to your family. asserted
you → buy → family
And each couple will be able to leave a further £1 million of inheritance free. asserted
couple → leave → inheritance
'Our changes will take more than half of people currently liable for inheritance tax out of paying it altogether, and save many more families from paying it in the future. asserted
changes → take → future
The Conservatives believe you should get to keep more of what you earn. asserted
you → believe → what
Labour want to take more of your money and spend it on welfare.' asserted
Labour → want → welfare
The Tory plans are forecast to cost £6 billion a year, funded mainly by cuts to welfare. asserted
plans → forecast → welfare
But some economists warned the plan could end up costing significantly more if it incentivises older people to pile their assets into property in later life. uncertain
it → warn → life
Dan Neidle, of Tax Policy Associates, said it would create a 'perverse incentive' for older people to 'upsize' their property to avoid inheritance tax. asserted
people → say → tax
He said the final cost of the policy was likely to be between £7.7 billion and £10.9 billion. asserted
cost → say → policy
Tory sources played down the warning, saying that most people with enough assets to be caught by the proposed thresholds are already using tax lawyers and accountants to shelter their wealth from death duties. asserted
people → play → duties
Under current rules, individuals can leave £325,000 in assets tax-free, with a further £175,000 if the family home is involved. asserted
home → leave → 175,000
Couples can leave a total of £1 million before the taxman takes a slice. asserted
taxman → leave → slice
The Conservative plans will see the family home exempted completely. asserted
home → see → ?
Individuals will also be able to leave a further £500,000 in assets tax-free, allowing couples to leave £1 million on top of the family home. asserted
couples → leave → home
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