Hochul leads Blakeman by 11 points, but losing ground with this key voting bloc in new Marist poll

Read the original at New York Post ↗
New York Post · collected 2026-10-07 · by Vaughn Golden, Hannah Fierick, Haley Brown

Quick Summary

A Marist poll shows New York Governor Kathy Hochul leading Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 11 points in the race for governor with 53% to 42%, based on a survey of 1,361 registered voters. However, Hochul is losing ground among independent voters and suburban areas, where Blakeman has support from 49% of independents compared to 42% for Hochul and the race is tied in suburbs at 48%. Hochul dominates in New York City with a 69%-to-24% margin over Blakeman.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-07, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In a newly released Marist poll, Governor Kathy Hochul leads Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 11 points with only four weeks left until the New York governor election. The poll surveyed 1,361 registered voters and found Hochul at 53% compared to Blakeman's 42%. However, among independents, Blakeman leads 49% to 42%, and both candidates are nearly tied in suburban areas with each receiving 48%. In New York City, the gap widens significantly: Hochul holds a strong lead at 69% against Blakeman's 24%. Despite the poll results, Blakeman criticized it as "woke" during an event in Queens and predicted high turnout for him in the city.

Written for “New York Gubernatorial Race Polls” on 2026-10-07, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence medium
Leaning: leans left for article 63814 (medium confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-07

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
16
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
0%
0 of 16 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
65.8
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-07 · how these are computed

Story

📰 New York Gubernatorial Race Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

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Publisher

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Who wrote this

Hannah Fierick
14 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
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🔮 Mayor Zohran Mamdani finally received federal security clearance, he said Wednesday — just a week after his chummy get together with President Trump at Gracie Mansion.
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🔮 It will be the first public testimony under oath by major AI firms about the risks and potential safeguards of their technology — and will be heard by the City Council in a rare hearing that includes all 51 members.
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Vaughn Golden
21 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 Hochul, who’s facing a reelection challenge from Republican Bruce Blakeman, is walking a tightrope of running as a moderate Democrat while trying to harness her party’s left wing who are energized by the recent election of democratic socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
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🔮 Democrats like Queens Borough President Donovan Richards predicted Hochul would come out on top, even as she faces mounting scrutiny from a growing liberal wing of the party energized by democratic socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s election win last year.
🔮 While they include thousands of everyday New Yorkers, they also include a number of high-powered politicians like Mayor Zohran Mamdani and A-list celebs like Rihanna and Robert De Niro.
🔮 “At this point in time we are possibly looking at how Cornell handled this situation and whether or not they could update their protocols and provide security to all their students,” James said. “Particularly individuals who are the victims of sexual assault.”
🔮 The GOP’s 2022 gubernatorial nominee, Lee Zeldin, was polling at 17% behind Hochul at that time before going on to narrow that gap to 6% on Election Day, with Blakeman supporters predicting he could similarly close the gap.
🔮 As his wife Jessica choked back tears during the video call, Tom Gorman asked whether the candidates would support federal legislation that would undo so-called state sanctuary laws, such as the protections that Gov. Kathy Hochul and Albany Democrats enacted earlier this year.
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Haley Brown
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Topics

Democrats Marist New York City Queens Republican

Subjects

Hochul PERSON · 4× Marist ORG · 4× Blakeman PERSON · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Democrats NORP · 2× New York City GPE · 2× Queens GPE · 2× Republican NORP · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× Kathy Hochul PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Gov. Kathy Hochul holds an 11-point lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, but is losing ground among independents with just four weeks to go in the race for governor, a newly released Marist poll shows.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-07

Claims (16 extracted, 0 hedged)

Gov. Kathy Hochul holds an 11-point lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, but is losing ground among independents with just four weeks to go in the race for governor, a newly released Marist poll shows. asserted
poll → hold → governor
The survey sampled 1,361 registered voters across New York state and found the Democratic governor ahead of her Republican rival 53% to 42%. asserted
governor → sample → rival
But Blakeman had a strong showing among independent voters, carrying 49% in the survey compared to 42% who backed Hochul. asserted
who → have → Hochul
And the two are in a dead heat in the the Empire State’s suburbs, split at 48%. asserted
two → split → %
The governor crushed Blakeman in New York City by a 69% to 24% margin, the poll found. asserted
poll → crush → margin
The survey mirrors a Marist 2022 poll that had Hochul with a 10-point lead over her Republican opponent, then-Rep. Lee Zeldin. asserted
that → mirror → opponent
Hochul wound up beating Zeldin by 6 points. asserted
Hochul → wind → points
Blakeman blasted the poll as “woke” while speaking to reporters at a Queens event. asserted
Blakeman → blast → event
“The phony Marist poll by the woke university that always favors Democrats over Republicans,” he charged, before predicting he’ll get “record turnout” in New York City. asserted
he → favor → City
Meanwhile, Hochul dismissed questions over whether she was concerned about the race. asserted
she → dismiss → race
Double digits means something,” she told reporters Wednesday. asserted
she → mean → reporters
“So, I’ll just let you all analyze that.” asserted
you → let → that
The Marist poll also found respondents favoring national Democrats over Republicans ahead of the pivotal midterms, 55% to 42%. asserted
respondents → find → midterms
Asked how much President Trump influences their vote for congress in next month’s election, 33% indicated he’s not much of a factor either way, while 44% said they’re casting their vote “against” Trump. asserted
they → ask → Trump
Almost half – 49% – of independents surveyed said Trump is not much of a factor. asserted
Trump → survey → factor
The survey, conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 4, has a margin of error of 3.6%. asserted
survey → conduct → %
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