The Aporia
On October 7, Mohammadreza Naqdi, an adviser to the Revolutionary Guards’ Commander, told the semi-official Fars News Agency that Iran would soon close what it considers "illegal routes" through the Strait of Hormuz. These routes, located along Oman’s coast, were reportedly created by damaging rocky passages and are used for oil smuggling activities. Naqdi asserted that the Strait of Hormuz is already closed with full control over its waterways held by the Iranian armed forces. He stated this situation will continue until Iran's demands are met.
Despite these claims, data from Kpler showed a seven-day moving average of crude exports from the region at 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, indicating that Gulf oil exports were actually above pre-war levels for 14 days in September. This contradicts Naqdi's assertion about the strait’s closure and challenges the narrative that Iran is significantly impeding oil transit through the strategically vital waterway.
The IRGC has consistently denied that seaborne crude flows in the strait are rebounding thanks to US Navy help, with another IRGC adviser, Majid Mirahmadi saying on Oct 1 that a daily average of 10 ships transit the waterway against an average of 125 before the war