Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows

Read the original at Al Jazeera ↗
Al Jazeera · collected 2026-10-05 · by Reuters

Quick Summary

Middle East crude oil exports exceeded pre-war levels for four out of seven days in late September, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, reaching 19.5-22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) during that period. However, an Iranian military official claimed only three to four million bpd were moving through the region, calling it "negligible." The data also shows a rise in liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran stating it will keep the strait closed until certain conditions are met by the United States.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-05, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Crude oil exports from West Asia exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days at the end of September 2026, despite increased tanker attacks and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported daily crude exports ranging between 19.5 million barrels per day and 22.5 million bpd, surpassing pre-war levels from March 2025 to February 2026 when they averaged 18 million bpd. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi dismissed these figures, claiming only 3-4 million barrels of oil per day are currently moving through the strait post-war. Meanwhile, Iran reported attacking ships near the Strait of Hormuz, including US Navy vessels, forcing the U.S. to move its warships further away from Iranian coastal waters.

Written for “West Asian Oil Exports Recover” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence medium
Leaning: leans left for article 56754 (medium confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-05

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
10
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
20%
2 of 10 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
60.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
2
Economy/Business
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-05 · how these are computed

Story

📰 West Asian Oil Exports Recover
Economy/Business · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 20% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
BBC News · 0.86 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 32% hedged 6 of 19 📰 publisher trust 78
“The articles discuss oil flow levels in the Middle East but refer to different timeframes and specifics regarding data points.”
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 50% hedged 1 of 2 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles discuss different time periods and levels of oil exports, with one stating a recovery to 80% prewar levels and the other reporting surpassing pre-war levels on four days out of seven.”
Dawn
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 1 of 18 📰 publisher trust 77
“The articles discuss different aspects of the situation in the Middle East and do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss related topics but describe different events: one reports on military movements and a tanker incident, while the other covers oil export data and comments from IRGC.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 27% hedged 7 of 26 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles discuss different aspects of the impact of the Middle East war on energy markets. Article A focuses on Australian gas industry profits, while Article B discusses crude oil exports from the Middle East.”
CBS News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 12% hedged 3 of 24 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles describe different aspects related to oil prices and exports, but do not refer to the same specific incident or time frame.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 7 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A reports on a specific attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while Article B discusses overall oil export levels and comments from an Iranian official unrelated to any particular incident.”
ABC News (AU)
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 20 📰 publisher trust 61
“Article A discusses G7's decision to release oil reserves, while Article B reports on Middle East oil export levels surpassing pre-war levels.”
Euronews
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 8 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A discusses the release of emergency oil reserves by G7 countries, while Article B reports on current Middle East crude oil exports surpassing pre-war levels despite tensions.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 12% hedged 4 of 32 📰 publisher trust 65
“Article A describes a specific attack on an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, while Article B discusses overall crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassing pre-war levels.”

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 2128 article(s) · 2 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 2 correction(s)
2026-10-03
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Who wrote this

Reuters
433 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Djokovic will face Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals after the Russian defeated Francisco Cerundolo 7-6(4), 6-3 earlier.
🔮 She will appear on Monday in a Los Angeles federal court, Essayli said.
🔮 The figures exclude any vessels that might have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders turned off to avoid detection.
🔮 Reuters could not immediately verify the report.
🔮 She will appear on Monday (October 5) in a Los Angeles federal court, Essayli said.
🔮 Campus administration will also support legislative efforts to strengthen laws on sexual assault and intoxication, he added.
🔮 “I left Gaza and came to Egypt, the land of Kinana (referring to Egypt), but at the same time, this will not be forgotten, my dear brother, it will not be forgotten,” he said.
🔮 The figures exclude any vessels that might have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders turned off to avoid detection.
🔮 It’s something a disciplinary committee will look at,” he told reporters.
🔮 Senator Flavio Bolsonaro held a narrowing lead in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday (October 4, 2026), after more than half the votes were counted, with pollster Datafolha projecting that the election would proceed to a second vote.
Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by Reuters
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 433 articles by Reuters →

Topics

3Iran IRGC Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Kpler

Subjects

Iran GPE · 4× Kpler ORG · 3× IRGC ORG · 2× 3Iran GPE · 1× Ali Fadavi PERSON · 1× Fadavi PERSON · 1× Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ORG · 1× Taiz GPE · 1× US Navy ORG · 1× Yemen GPE · 1×

Narrative

However, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi said in a televised interview on Sunday night that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) are now moving through the route, dismissing the amount as “negligible” when compared with pre-war traffic. Recommended Stories list of 3 items- list 1 of 3Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions - list 2 of 3US withdraws B-1 bomber aircraft from UK’s Fairford base amid Iran fears - list 3 of 3Why is fighting intensifying in Yemen’s Taiz governorate? Fadavi said, for the first time, no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or even the northern Indian Ocean and US warships are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks. Kpler data showed crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, rising to 19.5-22.5 million bpd. Around that time, Iran claimed success in attacking ships – including US Navy vessels – near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strikes had forced Washington to move its warships further from the Iranian coast.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-05
🔮 The figures exclude any vessels that might have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders turned off to avoid detection.

Claims (10 extracted, 2 hedged)

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed. asserted
data → rise → Kpler
However, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi said in a televised interview on Sunday night that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) are now moving through the route, dismissing the amount as “negligible” when compared with pre-war traffic. Recommended Stories list of 3 items- list 1 of 3Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions - list 2 of 3US withdraws B-1 bomber aircraft from UK’s Fairford base amid Iran fears - list 3 of 3Why is fighting intensifying in Yemen’s Taiz governorate? Fadavi said, for the first time, no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or even the northern Indian Ocean and US warships are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks. Kpler data showed crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, rising to 19.5-22.5 million bpd. Around that time, Iran claimed success in attacking ships – including US Navy vessels – near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strikes had forced Washington to move its warships further from the Iranian coast. asserted
strikes → say → coast
Before the US-Israel war on Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026. asserted
exports → begin → March
According to Kpler data, the overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30. uncertain
tally → accord → September
On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports was at 18.5 million bpd. asserted
average → move → bpd
This includes transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. asserted
This → include → Oman
The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to its highest monthly level since February. asserted
number → liquefy → February
The figures exclude any vessels that might have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders turned off to avoid detection. uncertain
transponders → exclude → detection
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or in the Gulf of Aden since October 2. asserted
agency → report → October
On Sunday, Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the waterway. asserted
States → say → waterway
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