Paxton campaign rocked by THIRD leaked tape as he slams Iran war just hours before rally with Trump

Read the original at Daily Mail ↗
Daily Mail · collected 2026-10-07 · by Victoria Churchill

Quick Summary

Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton faced another leak from a September 24 event where he criticized Washington decision-making for issues like the war with Iran and rising fuel costs, which affect diesel prices and overall expenses. This is the third leaked audio from the same event; Paxton acknowledged having no control over gas prices or ending the war. With under a month until Election Day, polls show Paxton trailing Democratic opponent James Talarico. The article highlights the challenges for Republican candidates as President Trump faces record-low approval ratings and battles to prevent Democrats from gaining control of Congress.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-07, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Republican US Senate candidate Ken Paxton, currently trailing in polls, was caught on audio criticizing Washington decision-making during a September 24th private fundraising lunch in Washington, DC. He attributed his struggling campaign to the war in Iran, high diesel prices, and rising food costs. "When it's over $6 per gallon for diesel... people are feeling the pinch," Paxton stated, noting that he has no control over gas prices or the ongoing conflict. This is the third audio leak from the same event in a month as Paxton prepares to share the stage with President Trump in San Antonio on Wednesday evening. The cost of diesel surged to around $6.50 a gallon last month due to turmoil overseas caused by wars in Ukraine and Iran, pushing up transportation costs across the country.

Written for “Paxton Campaign Scandal” on 2026-10-07, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but all 2 of its quote(s) are attributed speech - words the article quotes from someone, not the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 62928: attributed speech only · logged 2026-10-07

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
13%
3 of 23 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
65.0
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-07 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Paxton Campaign Scandal
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 13% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Fox News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 3 of 35 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles describe different occurrences involving Ken Paxton, one discussing his frustration with campaign control and another about a leaked audio tape where he criticizes Washington decision-making.”
Grandpa Trump Is Getting Desperate different event · 85%
The Bulwark
⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 8% hedged 8 of 95
“The articles describe different leaking incidents: one about control over campaign strategy and another about issues dragging his campaign, suggesting separate audio leaks on different dates.”
Daily Mail · 0.86 cosine similarity
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 25% hedged 4 of 16 📰 publisher trust 65
“While both articles describe separate leaked tapes from the same fundraising lunch on September 24, they report different specific incidents within that event.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 5% hedged 3 of 55 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles describe related events but not the same specific incident - Article A discusses a poll and leaked audio affecting Paxton's campaign, while Article B focuses on a new leak of audio from an event on September 24th.”
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 4 of 24 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles describe different parts of the same overall incident involving Ken Paxton's campaign, but they refer to separate audio recordings leaked at different times.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 19 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different aspects of Ken Paxton's campaign, with Article A focusing on his admission about outside control and Article B reporting a leaked audio tape from a separate incident.”

Publisher

Daily Mail · 4207 article(s) · 12 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 12 correction(s)
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Clarifications and corrections

Who wrote this

Victoria Churchill
23 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 At a White House dinner in September, Trump laid a slew of backhanded compliments on Paxton, saying, 'you might not like the way he looks, you might not love his television interviews,' before praising him as the 'best attorney general' and adding 'that speaks a lot louder than the suit he's wearing that doesn't look so great.' Trump also said that Paxton 'can be a pain in the ass' during a visit to a truck plant in Denton, Texas last week. Still, at the Washington DC event last month, Paxton told lobbyists that messaging in a federal race often comes from others, leaving him stuck with decisions he cannot alter.
🔮 Democrats are projected to pick up at least 15 House seats and between one and five in the Senate, according to Cook Political Report analysis published last month.
🔮 Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that the strait is set to remain closed until the US agrees to its terms.
🔮 'That I will go out with my family, my friends, I'll do it any way - I don't care if I'm registered or not, I'm going to try to cheat like hell like they do... and we are going to vote on November 3,' Trump added during his remarks last month.
🔮 In April, Raskin, now top Democrat on House Judiciary, said he could not 'both be a diplomat and a financial pawn of the Saudi monarchy at the same time.
🔮 Former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz backed the idea on X: 'I would support any ambition of Senator Schmitt.'
🔮 While appearing on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, Gates called for greater government oversight of the emerging tech, while sharing that it could cause 'a billion deaths.
🔮 - Sign up HERE for the DC Insider Newsletter- our guide to what's rocking Washington, rattling the White House and setting tongues wagging on the Hill - See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Political observers have been asking for months when Pennsylvania's Democratic Senator John Fetterman will switch political parties to become a Republican.
🔮 Senator John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, told reporters that Xi is a 'reptile,' adding that he wouldn't turn his back on him 'if he's two days dead.
🔮 'If we lose it to the other team, the nuances that we want to fix with maybe a certain candidate are nothing compared to what it's going to take to get it back, right?' she continued.
Also by Victoria Churchill
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 23 articles by Victoria Churchill →

Topics

Democratic Republican Texas US Senate Washington

Subjects

Paxton PERSON · 11× Trump PERSON · 8× Texas GPE · 4× Ken Paxton PERSON · 3× Republican NORP · 3× Washington GPE · 3× Democratic NORP · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× Tracy Duhon PERSON · 2× US Senate ORG · 2×

Narrative

US President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a rally for Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton in Denton, Texas, last week Republican US Senate candidate and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was seen traveling to Iceland during the July 4th holiday weekend with his mistress Tracy Duhon The price of diesel is displayed in the pump of a gas station in Los Angeles, on September 22, 2026 The president is also battling record-low approval ratings and a cost-of-living crisis fueled by the war in Iran. Diesel surged to around $6.50 a gallon last month, pushing up the cost of transporting everything from groceries to construction materials across the country. The dramatic spike has been fueled by turmoil overseas in response to the wars in Ukraine and Iran, which have led to attacks on refineries in Russia and the Middle East.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-07
🔮 At a White House dinner in September, Trump laid a slew of backhanded compliments on Paxton, saying, 'you might not like the way he looks, you might not love his television interviews,' before praising him as the 'best attorney general' and adding 'that speaks a lot louder than the suit he's wearing that doesn't look so great.' Trump also said that Paxton 'can be a pain in the ass' during a visit to a truck plant in Denton, Texas last week. Still, at the Washington DC event last month, Paxton told lobbyists that messaging in a federal race often comes from others, leaving him stuck with decisions he cannot alter.

Claims (23 extracted, 3 hedged)

- Sign up HERE for the DC Insider Newsletter- our guide to what's rocking Washington, rattling the White House and setting tongues wagging on the Hill Trailing US Senate candidate Ken Paxton has been caught trashing Washington decision-making yet again, as more explosive audio has surfaced just hours before he is due to share the stage with President Trump. Paxton was asked by an attendee what he sees as 'dragging' his campaign, to which he responded, 'It's not tariffs.... asserted
It → sign → which
It's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel,' according to the audio from a September 24th event. uncertain
it → accord → event
The Lone Star State Republican made the admission to a room of lobbyists at a private fundraising lunch in Washington, DC, per audio reported on by Axios. asserted
Republican → make → Axios
'When it's over $6 per gallon for diesel... people are feeling the pinch,' Paxton also stated, before adding that rising fuel costs drive 'up food prices and everything else.' The Texan also acknowledged that he can't stop the war, and has 'no control over gas prices.' asserted
he → feel → prices
Paxton's remarks are the third that have been leaked from the same event in the last month. asserted
that → leak → month
The revelation comes as Trump heads to San Antonio to campaign with him Wednesday evening. asserted
Trump → come → him
With under a month left before Election Day, Paxton is behind Democratic opponent, James Talarico, in the latest polling from the New York Times and Siena Research. asserted
Paxton → leave → Times
Paxton's campaign has also been marred by a slew of personal issues amid his ongoing divorce, and his fling with his mistress Tracy Duhon, which the Daily Mail has extensively reported on. asserted
Mail → mar → which
The leak comes at a perilous moment for Republicans, as Trump is being forced to campaign in deep-red states as the GOP scrambles to stop Democrats from seizing control of both the House and Senate. asserted
GOP → come → House
US President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a rally for Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton in Denton, Texas, last week Republican US Senate candidate and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was seen traveling to Iceland during the July 4th holiday weekend with his mistress Tracy Duhon The price of diesel is displayed in the pump of a gas station in Los Angeles, on September 22, 2026 The president is also battling record-low approval ratings and a cost-of-living crisis fueled by the war in Iran. Diesel surged to around $6.50 a gallon last month, pushing up the cost of transporting everything from groceries to construction materials across the country. The dramatic spike has been fueled by turmoil overseas in response to the wars in Ukraine and Iran, which have led to attacks on refineries in Russia and the Middle East. asserted
which → deliver → Russia
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump's approval rating to be 32 percent. asserted
rating → find → ?
That same poll found that 44 percent of voters surveyed preferred Democratic candidates, compared to just 37 percent who favored Republicans. asserted
who → find → Republicans
Against that backdrop, Paxton privately complained about how little control he has over his own campaign in separate leaked audio obtained by Politico and released Monday. asserted
he → complain → Politico
'I don't control message or what we're doing,' he said, griping that the direction was coming from DC. asserted
direction → control → DC
The admission was striking given Paxton owes his candidacy to Trump after spending months fighting for the president's endorsement during a brutal GOP primary. asserted
Paxton → give → primary
At a White House dinner in September, Trump laid a slew of backhanded compliments on Paxton, saying, 'you might not like the way he looks, you might not love his television interviews,' before praising him as the 'best attorney general' and adding 'that speaks a lot louder than the suit he's wearing that doesn't look so great.' Trump also said that Paxton 'can be a pain in the ass' during a visit to a truck plant in Denton, Texas last week. Still, at the Washington DC event last month, Paxton told lobbyists that messaging in a federal race often comes from others, leaving him stuck with decisions he cannot alter. uncertain
he → lay → decisions
'I don't have ability to change anything,' he said. asserted
he → have → anything
One attendee told Politico that Paxton never blamed Trump's team by name, but those in the room understood who he meant. asserted
he → tell → who
The two are pictured here in November of 2019 The comments are particularly awkward for a candidate who won the nomination by branding incumbent John Cornyn a Washington insider insufficiently loyal to Trump. asserted
who → picture → Trump
'I'm not their person and I'm never going to be their person,' Paxton said of the DC establishment during the primary, according to the AP. uncertain
Paxton → go → AP
Paxton adviser Nick Maddux insisted the attorney general was 'obviously' referring to super PACs, which campaigns cannot coordinate with. asserted
campaigns → insist → which
In a separate recording obtained by the New York Times, Paxton said Trump's midterm convention in Texas 'dropped our numbers' — a report Maddux dismissed as 'manipulated nonsense'. asserted
Maddux → obtain → nonsense
Despite the polling anxiety, Paxton maintains a major cash advantage over Talarico, rolling out a $20 million ad buy last month while receiving millions from Senate Majority Leader John Thune's GOP fund since September. asserted
Paxton → maintain → September
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