One Nation surges past Anthony Albanese in fresh polling as Labor vote drops to lowest level

Read the original at Daily Mail ↗
Daily Mail · collected 2026-10-05 · by Caitlin Powell

Quick Summary

A recent poll by RedBridge Group and Accent Research for the Australian Financial Review shows Pauline Hanson's One Nation party overtaking Labor on primary votes, with 29% compared to Labor’s 28%. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings have hit a low of -27%, marking his lowest favorability since becoming prime minister. Despite this, when preferences are allocated, Labor remains ahead of One Nation, 52% to 48%. The poll highlights voter concerns about economic management and declining trust in Treasurer Jim Chalmers.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-05, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In recent polling by RedBridge Group and Accent Research for the Australian Financial Review, Pauline Hanson's One Nation surged ahead of Labor, with 29% of primary votes compared to Labor’s 28%. This marks the sixth lead change in six months. The poll also showed that Anthony Albanese's approval rating dropped 10 points to a net favorability of -27%, the lowest since he became Prime Minister, matching former Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s rating before the 2025 federal election. Despite this, Albanese remains the preferred Prime Minister by just a smaller margin, with a preference rate of 31%, while Hanson's rating rose to 26% and Angus Taylor remained at 15%. The Treasurer Jim Chalmers also saw his favorability ratings decline significantly, falling nine points in a month to minus 23%.

Written for “Australian Election Polling” on 2026-10-06, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 58758: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-05

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
24
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
17%
4 of 24 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
64.9
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-05 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Australian Election Polling
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
ABC News (AU)
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 14% hedged 6 of 42 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles discuss different aspects of political polling and support for parties in Australia but do not describe the same specific election incident.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 2 of 19 📰 publisher trust 65
“Article A describes Pauline Hanson's campaign launch event with a police presence and protesters, while Article B discusses polling results showing One Nation surpassing Labor in popularity.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 3% hedged 1 of 31 📰 publisher trust 61
“Article A describes a campaign launch event with a specific candidate's statement, while Article B reports on polling data and approval ratings.”
ABC News (AU)
⚖️ Leans strongly right 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 35 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles describe different aspects of One Nation's political activities: a campaign launch in Victoria with policy announcements versus polling results comparing One Nation to Labor nationally.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 2 of 20 📰 publisher trust 65
“Article A discusses One Nation moving into a new office space, while Article B reports on polling data showing One Nation surpassing Labor in voter support.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 2 of 18 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles describe polling data with different primary vote percentages and are conducted for different purposes.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 18% hedged 3 of 17 📰 publisher trust 65
“The articles report on different polls and changes in support for political parties over time, but do not describe the same specific polling incident or moment.”

Publisher

Daily Mail · 3894 article(s) · 12 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 12 correction(s)
2026-10-04
Prison chief stands down over botched execution
2026-10-03
Tennessee prison chief who oversaw botched execution of Christa Pike resigns, governor announces
2026-09-25
Twisted teacher who started school FIGHT CLUB and encouraged children to attack each other is given shockingly lenient punishment
2026-09-22
Melbourne inmate vanished without trace while carrying his brother's coffin 150 days ago - and cops are still hunting him
2026-09-21
Magistrate blasts Melbourne marketing mum Christina Georgiou over 'despicable' $50,000 fraud: How a master's graduate with a drug debt ended up rorting Covid and flood relief schemes
2026-09-18
Female corrections officer fired and arrested over claims she sneaked her home cooked meals into jail to give to inmates
2026-09-18
Woke NYC mayor offers condolences after alleged murderer, 20, dies in custody... but makes NO mention of his disabled victim
2026-09-15
Infamous prisoner known for his 'stop snitching' slogan DISAPPEARS during transfer from one federal prison to another
2026-09-15
Charles Manson's 'right-hand man' dies in prison at 83 after his parole was blocked 8 times
2026-09-15
Jeffrey Epstein's suicide watch 'companion' insists paedophile financier DID kill himself after becoming 'defeated' in his final days
2026-09-07
The evidence Epstein did NOT kill himself: Lawyer and pathologist reveal details they claim indicate the paedophile WAS murdered in jail in new documentary
2026-09-06
Clarifications and corrections

Who wrote this

Caitlin Powell
27 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Anthony Albanese's approval ratings have fallen sharply in new polling data One Nation moved ahead of Labor on 29 per cent of the primary vote compared with Labor's 28 per cent, according to a new poll When the 1,000 respondents were asked how they would direct their preference on a two-party basis, Labor was in front of One Nation 52 per cent to 48, no different to September.
🔮 Ahmad Nadir, 28, and Sarah Abu Lebdeh, 27, have pleaded not guilty to being menacing and offensive when they allegedly said they would refuse to treat Israeli patients and threatened violence against them.
🔮 Australians could see diesel hit $4 a litre at the bowser amid rationing warnings from energy analysts as Donald Trump considers an export ban on the fuel.
🔮 This new life would not have been possible without all those who fought to bring [Julian Assange] home,' former lawyer Stella said on Monday.
🔮 Caroline Engesser remembered the grandmother often listened to old Russian opera that could be heard drifting from her small apartment.
🔮 'He was covered in blood and we couldn't really see where it was coming from,' she told 7News on Friday. '
🔮 Police have launched an investigation and a report will be prepared for the coroner.
🔮 Greg O'Neill, 63, was swimming close to the shoreline when he was set upon by a great white shark at 10.15am on Friday The victim of a fatal shark attack at Perth's Sorrento Beach has been identified Mr Rowe added: 'It popped back up again, and then went back down, and they haven't seen the body since.' He said locals who frequent the stretch of coast were shocked by the incident, adding: 'I couldn't believe there was that much blood [coming] out of a human body.
🔮 Around 15 per cent of people may experience long-term complications such as hearing loss, limb amputations or brain damage.
Also by Caitlin Powell
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 27 articles by Caitlin Powell →

Topics

AFR Accent Research Labor One Nation RedBridge Group

Subjects

Labor ORG · 10× One Nation ORG · 5× Albanese PERSON · 4× Jim Chalmers PERSON · 3× AFR ORG · 2× Anthony Albanese's PERSON · 2× Coalition ORG · 2× Greens ORG · 2× Hanson PERSON · 2× Pauline Hanson's PERSON · 1×

Narrative

The poll also showed deteriorating voter sentiment towards Treasurer Jim Chalmers whose net favourability rating fell nine points in a month to minus 23 per cent 'No, Jim Chalmers is doing an extraordinary job in very difficult global circumstances,' he told the AFR.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-05
🔮 Anthony Albanese's approval ratings have fallen sharply in new polling data One Nation moved ahead of Labor on 29 per cent of the primary vote compared with Labor's 28 per cent, according to a new poll When the 1,000 respondents were asked how they would direct their preference on a two-party basis, Labor was in front of One Nation 52 per cent to 48, no different to September.

Claims (24 extracted, 4 hedged)

Pauline Hanson's One Nation has pulled ahead of Labor in fresh polling data while Anthony Albanese's approval ratings have dropped to a significant low. asserted
ratings → pull → low
One Nation moved ahead of Labor on 29 per cent of the primary vote compared with Labor's 28 per cent, according to a RedBridge Group and Accent Research poll for the Australian Financial Review. uncertain
Nation → move → Review
The data, published on Sunday, marks the sixth lead change in as many months and comes as the Prime Minister's net favourability rating has fallen sharply. asserted
rating → publish → months
The metric, which is Albanese's favourability rating minus unfavourability, decreased by 10 points over one month to -27 per cent. asserted
which → decrease → cent
It is the lowest rating of Albanese's prime ministership and matches the figure recorded by former Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on the eve of the 2025 federal election. asserted
It → match → election
Nonetheless, Albanese remains the preferred Prime Minister, just by a smaller margin. asserted
Albanese → remain → margin
While the preference for him remained 31 per cent, Hanson's rating increased to 26 per cent in the latest data. asserted
rating → remain → data
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor remained at 15 per cent. asserted
Taylor → remain → cent
After a change in Greens leadership last week after Larissa Waters resigned due to ill health, the party fell one point to 11 per cent. asserted
party → resign → cent
Anthony Albanese's approval ratings have fallen sharply in new polling data One Nation moved ahead of Labor on 29 per cent of the primary vote compared with Labor's 28 per cent, according to a new poll When the 1,000 respondents were asked how they would direct their preference on a two-party basis, Labor was in front of One Nation 52 per cent to 48, no different to September. uncertain
Labor → fall → September
But RedBridge director Tony Barry said the broader data suggested Albanese and his government continued to face significant political challenges. ' uncertain
Albanese → say → challenges
Labor's vote share is back to its lowest recorded level,' he told the AFR. asserted
he → record → AFR
'The current political challenge for Labor is that the cash register never lies and voters will rarely reward a government when they are feeling poorer.' asserted
they → lie → government
The poll also showed deteriorating voter sentiment towards Treasurer Jim Chalmers. His net favourability rating fell nine points in a month to its worst level in the poll's history, dropping to minus 23 per cent. asserted
rating → show → cent
Taylor's net rating also fell three points to -6 per cent while Hanson's increased by two points to -10 per cent. asserted
Hanson → fall → cent
Chalmers was defended by Cabinet Secretary Andrew Charlton, who insisted the Treasurer would not be replaced in a reshuffle. asserted
Treasurer → defend → reshuffle
The poll also showed deteriorating voter sentiment towards Treasurer Jim Chalmers whose net favourability rating fell nine points in a month to minus 23 per cent 'No, Jim Chalmers is doing an extraordinary job in very difficult global circumstances,' he told the AFR. asserted
he → show → AFR
According to the figures, concern about economic management as a key issue among voters increased from 14 per cent to 21 per cent in a month. uncertain
concern → accord → month
But when asked which party would be most trusted in managing the economy, Labor dropped to 20 per cent of the vote while the Coalition rose to 29 per cent. asserted
Coalition → ask → cent
One Nation took 16 per cent of the vote. asserted
Nation → take → vote
Financial issues were the dominant concern among Australian voters in the poll, with the cost of living topping the list at 73 per cent. asserted
cost → top → cent
This was followed by concerns about healthcare (36 per cent), housing affordability (33 per cent), the rate of immigration (29 per cent) and crime and public safety (24 per cent). asserted
This → follow → immigration
The more conservative parties, One Nation and the Coalition, led Labor and the Greens on all of the issues surveyed. asserted
parties → lead → issues
They led by 43 per cent to 26 per cent on cost of living, 37 per cent to 34 per cent on healthcare, 39 per cent to 26 per cent on housing, 56 per cent to 25 per cent on immigration and 44 per cent to 22 per cent on crime. asserted
They → lead → crime
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support