Energy analysts warn that diesel prices in Australia could reach $4 a litre if President Trump imposes an export ban on US diesel, increasing competition for supplies globally. Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee predicts this could lead to price hikes by about 50 percent within weeks. Kevin Morrison, an energy finance analyst, explains that even though Australia does not directly import diesel from the US, such a ban would affect global markets and intensify competition with other major buyers like China and Europe.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-01,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Australians could see diesel hit $4 a litre at the bowser amid rationing warnings from energy analysts as Donald Trump considers an export ban on the fuel.
uncertain
Trump → see → fuel
Some Republicans have suggested banning diesel exports, a proposal that received support from President Donald Trump last week.
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that → suggest → Trump
'I've said let's not send out the diesel.
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's → say → diesel
We make a lot of diesel …
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We → make → diesel
I've called for it.
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I → call → it
I've called for it within my people,' he said last week.
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he → call → people
While Australia is not a direct importer of US diesel, the ripple effect could still hit drivers across the country.
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effect → hit → country
Following the remarks, MST Marquee's head of energy research Saul Kavonic predicted that if Trump follows through, Australia could risk diesel fuel rationing.
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Australia → follow → rationing
He added that prices could rise by about 50 per cent, pushing diesel prices above $4 a litre.
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prices → add → 4
'If the US goes down this path, and particularly if they do it in a very severe way, I think we'll be looking at that in a matter of weeks,' he told ABC's The Business.
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he → go → Business
Energy finance analyst Kevin Morrison said a US export ban could increase competition for diesel supplies and place further pressure on Australian prices.
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ban → say → prices
Australians warned diesel could hit $4 a litre amid rationing fears as Donald Trump weighs export ban - piling more cost-of-living pressure on Aussies as the Albanese government comes under pressure
MST Marquee's head of energy research Saul Kavonic warned prices could rise by about 50 per cent if Trump follows through on the ban.
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Trump → warn → ban
'Even though Australia doesn't directly import diesel from America, Australia is... the world's largest importer of diesel and the US is the world's largest exporter
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US → import → diesel
,' Morrison told Channel Seven's Sunrise on Wednesday.
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Morrison → tell → Wednesday
'So if the US does decide to stop exporting its diesel, it's going to impact all those diesel buyers.
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it → decide → buyers
'We're going to be in greater competition with the likes of Brazil, China, Turkey, and the EU.'
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We → go → Brazil
Morrison said that, if the ban were to come into force, Europe would be significantly impacted.
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Europe → say → force
'That will definitely drive up the diesel prices and Australia will bear the brunt of that,' he said.
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he → drive → that
Morrison pointed to reports that oil has flowed from Saudi Arabia to Iran following what he described as an 'unofficial truce'.
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he → point → truce
He also cited data suggesting Middle Eastern oil exports had returned to about 80 per cent of pre-war levels as of September.
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exports → cite → September
'While they're sort of still talking about being hostile to each other, I think they also need the income that they're going to get from oil sales,' he said.
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he → talk → sales
Australia doesn't directly import diesel from America but it could still be impacted, according to energy finance analyst Kevin Morrison
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it → import → Morrison
As of September 20, average petrol prices were about $2.30 per litre across Australia's five largest cities, while diesel prices were roughly 40 cents per litre higher due to conflict in the Middle East affecting key oil shipping routes.
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conflict → affect → routes
However, prices remained well below their levels from April 1, when Canberra halved the fuel excise, shaving about 26 cents a litre from the cost at the bowser.
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Canberra → remain → bowser
Brent crude, the benchmark oil price, rocketed to about $US104 ($A146) a barrel, edging nearer to its May peak of $US114 ($A160).
The May budget forecast prices to return to $US80 by mid-2027, but some experts had predicted oil prices could reach as high as $US150 per barrel as global stockpiles are depleted.
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stockpiles → rocket → barrel
Future cuts to fuel excise have been ruled out, while a 'shield' proposed by the Coalition to protect Australians from global oil shocks was rejected by the government.
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shield → rule → government
The Opposition floated an idea of automatically halving the fuel excise whenever crude oil tops $US100 ($A140) a barrel on average for two weeks.
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oil → float → weeks
However, the proposal was rejected by Labor frontbenchers.
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proposal → reject → frontbenchers
'We don't think [it's a good idea] and, again, it's an unfunded, uncosted promise,' Finance Minister Katy Gallagher told ABC Radio.
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Gallagher → think → Radio
'This is not something that we have been considering...
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we → consider → that
we've shifted - including in the Budget - to providing more permanent cost of living arrangements, including through the tax system.'
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we → shift → system
The Aporia
