Later today, Donald Trump will be in the state of Nebraska to rev up supporters as he kicks off a campaign blitz of rallies ahead of the midterm elections on 3 November.
asserted
he → rev → November
If his early speeches are anything to go by, cornhuskers can anticipate poll denial, accusations of veganism and an expletive ratio that my nine-year-old would love.
asserted
old → go → that
And Nebraskans may love it, too: aside from one “blue dot” district in Omaha, Republicans argue their support is steady in the state that has easily backed Trump three times.
uncertain
that → love → Trump
This campaign is set against the president’s plummeting approval ratings, the unravelling of his Maga movement and an affordability crisis escalated by his unpopular war on Iran.
asserted
campaign → set → Iran
But Trump supporters are also among the most motivated to vote, and Republicans have far deeper coffers to mobilise their base.
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Republicans → vote → base
I asked First Edition readers what you really want to know about the US midterms.
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you → ask → midterms
Today, in a happy exercise in newsletter cross-pollination, I put your questions to our Washington editor Ankita Rao, who runs our US elections newsletter The Stakes.
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who → put → newsletter
The Greens in England and Wales have formally adopted a policy that equates Zionism with racism and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state.
asserted
Israel → adopt → state
Lawyers and campaigners have condemned the “horrifying” scale of child-on-child sexual abuse in schools after a Guardian investigation revealed thousands of sexual offences against under-13s are reported to police each year.
asserted
thousands → condemn → police
Brazil’s presidential race will go to a second round after the far-right candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, beat the incumbent leftwing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but failed to secure the outright majority he needed to avoid a runoff.
asserted
he → go → runoff
A study of Europe’s summer paints a grim picture for the future, with doctors and climate scientists calling on governments to stop burning fossil fuels, shade buildings, green cities, and install air conditioning in hospitals, schools and care homes.
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doctors → paint → hospitals
The US Air Force has pulled its bombers from RAF Fairford following an investigation into an alleged planned terror attack at the base.
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Force → pull → base
You’d be forgiven, readers, if the state of US politics is perplexing you.
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state → forgive → you
On the one hand, there are voters who have little faith in the president’s war in the Middle East and are increasingly angry about his inability to make daily life more affordable at home.
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life → be → home
On the other, Trump has promised a “big surprise” come 3 November – and polls have predicted the wrong results for previous elections.
asserted
polls → promise → elections
As Ankita Rao set out in The Stakes in September, her team of reporters across the US are hearing the same things in almost every community they’ve spent time in:
Democratic senator Jon Ossoff’s use of the term “Epstein class”.
With this deep knowledge of the mood of the country, she is the woman to answer your questions.
asserted
she → set → questions
Who still believes in Donald Trump?
asserted
Who → believe → Trump
Johanne, Quebec, Canada
Ankita’s short answer is that it might be the other way around: a lot of Americans don’t feel they’ve been presented with a better option yet.
uncertain
they → feel → option
This was evident during primary season, when both Democrats and Republicans went for candidates “who they felt would actually stick it to the man”, says Ankita, rather than regurgitating established party platforms.
asserted
they → go → platforms
After all, that was what so many hoped to get with Trump – but those voters who had flocked to him as the anti-establishment leader, or the man who represented something beyond the two-party system, now see him aligning himself with big tech and other corporate interests, particularly this last term in office.
asserted
him → hop → office
There’s a serious disconnect between Trump and his supporters, Ankita tells me.
asserted
Ankita → ’ → me
His previously impressive political instincts have faltered “partly because he can’t see beyond his own fixations” – be that his ballroom, the war in Iran, or the unfettered growth of AI.
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that → falter → AI
As one Ohio voter told us at the weekend: “I’m sorry, but I don’t give a shit whose name is on the Kennedy Center.”
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name → tell → Center
Has Trump got a decisive ‘dirty trick’ up his sleeve?
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Trump → get → sleeve
A big concern for First Edition readers is election interference: how Trump has already restricted voting and what dirty tricks he might still try.
uncertain
he → restrict → tricks
Will he try to ignore the election results – and how would the Guardian report that?
asserted
Guardian → try → that
Ankita joined Guardian US seven years ago as voting rights editor, launching our multiyear democracy project.
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Ankita → join → project
“We had four reporters on that, but now they’re part of the larger politics team, and election integrity has become essential to our coverage,” she says.
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she → have → coverage
In the months leading up to the midterms, Trump signed executive orders seeking to assert more control over voting methods, and in a Time magazine interview last week, he refused to rule out declaring a national emergency around elections to implement them.
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he → lead → them
“So we are prepared for anything,” says Ankita.
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Ankita → say → anything
Legal challenges in individual races are “almost inevitable”, she says.
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she → say → races
“We know the states where the election systems are fully controlled by Republicans, and we’re ready to move everybody there if we see anything strange happening”.
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anything → know → everybody
Fear of election rigging is high in the communities Guardian reporters are visiting.
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reporters → visit → communities
“We hear this a lot from Democrats who are worried about making sure their vote counts, and more nervous about using mail-in ballots.”
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vote → hear → ballots
This September edition of The Stakes covers Trump’s attempts to restrict postal voting – which is how almost one-third of Americans vote.
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one → cover → Americans
Ankita suggests this could result in higher turnout.
uncertain
this → suggest → turnout
Early data in the deeply red state of Florida, for example, showed voter registration among Democrats already very high.
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registration → show → Democrats
“There’s a sense that ‘we need to go out in droves and make sure that all of these wins are very decisive, so that nobody can question them’.”
asserted
nobody → ’ → them
Would Republican losses limit Trump’s excesses?
asserted
losses → limit → excesses
Peter Alexander, England
Ankita tells me she doesn’t make predictions any more – a lot can change in a few short weeks – but if an election was called tomorrow “it looks as if the Democrats will absolutely win the House and most likely win the Senate”.
asserted
Democrats → tell → Senate
…and 49 more, not listed.
The Aporia
