A new Gallup poll shows 31% of US adults identify as Democrats, a six-point lead over Republicans who make up 25%. The Democratic advantage is the largest in over a decade and has widened since last year when the margin was just three points. According to the poll, independents lean towards the Democratic party by a 10-point margin, with 49% identifying or leaning Democratic compared to 39% for Republicans. Gallup's Jeffrey Jones notes that this trend is similar to what occurred at the end of George W. Bush's presidency, when Democrats took control in the 2006 and 2008 elections.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-06,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
31% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats in the second quarter of 2026, while 25% identified as Republicans, giving the Democratic Party a six-point lead in party identification for the first time in over a decade. This shift is a significant blow to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterms, which historically see the president's party lose seats in Congress. The trend is part of a broader pattern of negative polling trends for Trump, including low approval ratings and opposition to his economic policies and the war with Iran. Some Republican lawmakers and strategists are warning of a potential "shellacking" in the midterms due to these growing challenges.
Written for “Shift in American Politics” on 2026-09-07,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
A growing number of Americans now identify as Democrats, a shift that presents fresh political headwinds for President Donald Trump and the Republican party ahead of the November midterms, according to a new poll.
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that → grow → poll
The latest Gallup data shows 31 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 25 percent who identify as Republicans.
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who → show → Republicans
The findings add to recent signs of political trouble for Trump, whose approval ratings remain near historic lows.
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ratings → add → lows
His tariffs, a central pillar of his economic policy, are broadly unpopular and were recently limited by the Supreme Court.
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tariffs → limit → Court
The war with Iran, one of the major initiatives of his second term, has continued for months with no clear end in sight; multiple polls show most Americans oppose the conflict.
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Americans → continue → conflict
With polling trends moving against them, some Republican lawmakers and strategists have warned about a potential shellacking in the midterms, which historically see the president’s party lose seats in Congress.
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party → move → Congress
In the Gallup survey, Democrats’ advantage widened further when independents — who accounted for 44 percent of respondents — were asked which major party they leaned toward.
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they → widen → party
Forty-nine percent of respondents identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with 39 percent who identified as or leaned Republican, a 10-point gap and the largest since 2008.
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who → identify → 2008
A year ago, by comparison, the margin was far narrower: 46 percent identified or leaned Democratic, versus 43 percent for Republicans.
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percent → identify → Republicans
The last time the GOP held the advantage in party identification, when including so-called leaners, was the fourth quarter of 2024, which coincided with Trump’s presidential election.
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which → hold → election
During that period, they held a 4-point lead over Democrats.
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they → hold → Democrats
Over time, partisan identification tends to ebb and flow, with the advantage swinging back and forth between the two parties every few years.
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advantage → tend → parties
“When things are going well in the country, party identification shifts in the direction of the party in charge,” Gallup senior editor Jeffrey Jones told The New York Times.
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Jones → go → Times
“When things are going poorly, like they are now with an unpopular Republican president and people unhappy with the state of the nation, people are moving away from the party in charge.”
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people → go → charge
“What we are seeing now is similar to the end of the George W. Bush administration, when he was pretty unpopular,” Jones added.
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Jones → see → administration
“Democrats had a big lead in party identification, which was then a prelude to the 2006 and 2008 elections, which were big victories for Democrats.”
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which → have → Democrats
With the midterm elections — which will decide control of the House and Senate — now fast approaching, Trump has signaled he will campaign nationwide for Republicans.
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he → decide → Republicans
He has largely framed the vote as a referendum on himself.
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“Pretend I’m on the ballot,” he told Fox News in August.
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he → pretend → August
This month, he is also set to host the first-ever GOP midterm convention.
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he → set → convention
Some Republican lawmakers, however, have indicated they do not want the commander in chief campaigning alongside them.
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commander → indicate → them
“We've told them he cannot come,” a senior Republican working on a competitive House race told Politico this week.
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Republican → tell → Politico
