The Aporia · More voters identifying as Democrats and not calling themselves Republican

More voters identifying as Democrats and not calling themselves Republican

Read the original at The Guardian ↗

Cite

APA MLA Chicago

Planas, R. (2026, September 5). More voters identifying as Democrats and not calling themselves Republican. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/05/us-voters-democrats-republicans

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Quick Summary

Gallup's quarterly data shows that 49% of voters now identify as Democrats, while only 39% lean Republican, a 10-point spread that marks a sharp reversal from the previous year when Republicans held a four-point advantage. This shift is attributed to President Donald Trump's unpopularity, with his approval rating dwindling from 52% in January 2025 to 38%, and 58% of voters now disapproving of his performance. The data suggests that Democrats are poised to take advantage of this trend, potentially retaking the US House of Representatives in midterm elections this November. A growing share of American voters have been identifying as independents in recent years, with 45% doing so by last year.

Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-05, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

49% of voters surveyed leaned Democrat, while only 39% leaned Republican, marking a 10-point spread that represents the largest advantage for Democrats since 2008 when Barack Obama was elected president. This shift is seen as evidence of growing discontent with Donald Trump's second term, which began in January 2025 and has been marked by controversies such as cleaving the federal workforce, imposing tariffs, passing a spending bill, and launching a war with Iran. As a result, 58% of voters now disapprove of his presidency, while his approval rating stood at 52% at the time of his inauguration. This shift in voter sentiment could have significant implications for the 2028 elections, as it suggests a potential backlash against Trump's policies and leadership style.

Written for “Shift to Democratic Party” on 2026-10-21, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 29% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

More Americans are identifying as Democrats in latest troubling sign for Trump and the midterms different event · 90%

The Independent

⚖️ Leans left 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 22 📰 publisher trust 59

“Article A and B report on different quarters (2024 vs. 2026) and mention different advantages (10-point spread vs. 6-point advantage)”

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

29%

4 of 14 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

Leans left

of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate

Publisher signals

69/100

The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

Outlets on this story

Politics

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Analyzed 2026-09-05 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 1504 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected

Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)

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Who wrote this

Roque Planas

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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 9 articles by Roque Planas →

Topics

Democrat Democrats Gallup Republican Republicans

Subjects

Democrats NORP · 5× Republican NORP · 4× Democrat NORP · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Gallup ORG · 2× Republicans NORP · 2× the New York Times ORG · 2× the US ORG · 2× Congress ORG · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1×

Narrative

That 10-point spread marks a sharp reversal from the four-point advantage that Republicans held over Democrats in the fourth quarter of 2024, when voters sent Donald Trump back to the White House and Republicans swept both houses of Congress.

framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-05

2026-09-05 · The Guardian

More voters identifying as Democrats and not calling themselves Republican · mixed framing

Claims (14 extracted, 4 hedged)

More voters are identifying as Democrats and shying away from calling themselves Republican, according to the latest quarterly data published by Gallup. uncertain

voters → identify → Gallup

Some 49% of voters surveyed leaned Democrat, including independent voters asked to pick one party or the other. asserted

% → survey → party

Only 39% of respondents leaned Republican. asserted

% → lean → Republican

Republicans → mark → Congress

Democrats are seeing their most sizable advantage since 2008, when Barack Obama was elected president, according to the New York Times. uncertain

Obama → see → Times

The data offers the latest evidence that Trump’s second term has proved unpopular with voters, driving a potential backlash. asserted

term → offer → backlash

Trump’s approval rating stood at 52% at the time of his second inauguration in January of 2025, according to an average of polls published by the New York Times. But his popularity dwindled immediately, as he cleaved the federal workforce, imposed price-inflating tariffs, passed a profligate spending bill and launched a rudderless war with Iran. uncertain

he → stand → Iran

Some 58% of voters now disapprove of his performance, with only 38% approving, according to the Times. uncertain

% → disapprove → Times

Democrats are hoping to take advantage of Trump’s tanking popularity. asserted

Democrats → hop → popularity

Liberals are likely to retake the US House of Representatives in midterm elections this November. asserted

Liberals → retake → elections

The party is much less certain to retake the US Senate, though polling is giving Democrats reasons to feel optimistic. asserted

polling → retake → reasons

A growing share of American voters have not identified with either party in recent years. asserted

share → grow → years

Back in 2002, roughly a third of voters surveyed by Gallup identified as either Republican, Democrat or independent. asserted

third → survey → Republican

By last year, 45% of respondents called themselves independents, with only 27% identifying as either Democrat or Republican. asserted

% → call → Democrat