This article is brought to you by American Purpose, the magazine and community founded by Francis Fukuyama in 2020, which is proudly part of the Persuasion family.
asserted
which → bring → family
Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, damaged in the Iran war, may take between 12 and 36 months to repair, imposing a “force majeure” on European deliveries.
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plant → liquefy → deliveries
The Strait of Hormuz is mostly closed to routine commercial traffic.
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Strait → close → traffic
Add to this Ukraine’s fully justified campaign against Russian refining capacity, and we can see why diesel, in addition to other fossil fuels, is at record prices across Europe.
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diesel → add → Europe
What’s more, the EU’s ban on Russian LNG imports is expected to come into effect in January, in the depths of winter, which is presumably why European buyers purchased 57 percent more Russian LNG this June than a year earlier.
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buyers → ’ → LNG
Yet even that might not be enough to keep European energy markets in decent shape throughout the heating season.
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that → keep → season
EU storage is at just over 71 percent of capacity, compared to a seasonal norm of 88 percent.
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storage → compare → percent
Germany, which holds Europe’s largest storage capacity, was barely above half full in late August, against roughly 69 percent a year earlier.
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which → hold → percent
There is a legal requirement to reach 70 percent by November 1, which may well be missed.
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which → be → November
INES, the German gas storage association, warns that “if insufficiently filled gas storage facilities coincide with a very cold winter, Germany may no longer be able to cover normal gas demand in full.”
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Germany → warn → demand
European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen concedes that storage is “exceptionally low,” yet sees “no immediate risks to security of supply.”
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storage → concede → supply
The optimism is not universally shared.
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optimism → share → ?
“The combination of Hormuz supply disruptions and below-average storage leaves Europe with very little room for error this winter,” says David Lewis of Wood Mackenzie, an energy-focused research and consultancy group, adding that the situation is unlikely to settle before 2028.
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situation → leave → 2028
Europe’s energy policy has oscillated between a complacency caused by the supposedly plentiful supply of Russian pipeline gas, the moral imperative of decarbonization, concerns over nuclear energy, and—more recently—the strategic need to cut the continent’s dependence on Russian energy.
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policy → oscillate → energy
Juggling those choices, Europeans lost sight of the overarching need to invest at scale in expanding supply to keep their economies growing.
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Europeans → juggle → economies
The Netherlands is in the process of sealing a field that still holds an estimated 550 billion cubic meters of gas—something on the order of eighteen years of Dutch consumption.
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that → seal → consumption
Seventy out of some 300 wells have already been capped.
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wells → cap → ?
Full decommissioning will take about a decade and cost some €2 billion.
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decommissioning → take → billion
The decision was not completely baseless—the Dutch were rattled by “induced earthquakes” caused by gas extraction—but shutting the field down was not the only option.
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shutting → rattle → field
TNO, the Dutch state research institute, proposed keeping the field as a strategic reserve instead of making it physically impossible to use it ever again.
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it → propose → it
Unlike in the United States or Canada, fracking is banned across much of the continent on grounds that have little to do with any serious accounting of risk.
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that → ban → risk
In political life, security and abundance of supply suffers from a collective action problem, while local objections can have the effect of a near-veto.
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objections → suffer → veto
For national leaders working with short time horizons, cushioning high prices is more convenient than funding the investment in future supply that would lower them.
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that → work → them
The bill is coming due in Europe’s industrial heartland.
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bill → come → heartland
In March, Germany’s chemical lobby warned that the country’s industrial base was “at risk of a structural break.”
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base → warn → break
Dow is shutting its ethylene cracker at Böhlen and its chlor-alkali assets at Schkopau.
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Dow → shut → Schkopau
ArcelorMittal is ending steelmaking at Duisburg, citing high energy costs.
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ArcelorMittal → end → costs
Meanwhile, the head of Poland’s Grupa Azoty noted this month that European fertilizer producers are again weighing cuts because gas costs no longer permit profitable production.
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costs → note → production
In 2022, half of Europe’s ammonia capacity went dark because of high natural gas prices.
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half → go → prices
Germany’s growth forecast for 2027, set by the ifo Institute at 1.2 percent, may not look terrible by European standards.
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forecast → set → standards
But the same group of macroeconomists estimates Germany’s long-run potential growth at only 0.1 percent, blaming it on a lack of structural reforms.
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group → estimate → reforms
The deficit is also projected to reach 4.6 percent of GDP in 2027, bringing gross debt to 68 percent by 2028.
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deficit → project → 2028
In isolation, none of this may look like an emergency—but it becomes one in the context of crises affecting the continent.
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it → look → continent
Every euro spent on cushioning households and factories from the impact of high energy prices this winter is a euro not spent on defense, on investment in new energy sources, or on economic reforms.
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euro → spend → reforms
If the politics of waking Europe from its stupor look bad today, they are unlikely to get any better.
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they → wake → stupor
The German Chancellor’s position is unsteady as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), as well as the far left, wins elections.
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Alternative → win → elections
Marine Le Pen looks increasingly like a frontrunner in France’s presidential election next year.
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Pen → look → election
A cold, expensive winter across Europe’s industrial core risks being the straw that breaks the camel’s back—and it is precisely the sort of event that Moscow is counting on to erode Western unity on Ukraine.
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Moscow → risk → Ukraine
There is no question that Europe has taken many right steps since 2022.
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Europe → be → 2022
It stopped using Russian pipeline gas without the lights going out, built LNG import capacity with impressive speed, and continued to support Ukraine.
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lights → stop → Ukraine
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
