The Independent
· collected 2026-10-02 · by Cara Anna and Jill Lawless
The leaders of Britain and the United States have suggested, without giving evidence, that Iran played a role in two major security incidents this week, the arrests near a U.S.-run military base in England used in the war against Tehran and the attack in the cockpit of an Israel-bound plane.
uncertain
Iran → suggest → plane
As of Friday, no confirmed connection to the Islamic Republic had emerged.
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connection → confirm → Republic
Britain has not made public any evidence linking Iran to the air-base arrests on terrorism-related charges.
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evidence → make → charges
And an official who was not authorized to speak to the media said there is currently no evidence of a link between Iran and the cockpit attack.
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who → authorize → Iran
If an Iranian link to the Britain arrests is confirmed, it would underline a strategy that Iran’s government has promoted for decades, using smaller, relatively low-cost attacks to needle and disrupt more powerful adversaries and their economies while causing friction among allies.
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government → confirm → allies
If it is confirmed that Iran played a role in targeting the FlyDubai flight, that would represent a dangerous new level in that approach.
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that → confirm → approach
Iran denies any involvement
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Iran → deny → involvement
Iran has denied involvement in Sunday’s arrests close to the RAF Fairford air base, which has been used by U.S. bombers to strike Iran.
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which → deny → Iran
Iranian leaders summoned Britain's ambassador and called on the British government to provide an official explanation.
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leaders → summon → explanation
Police on Thursday arrested a 25-year-old dual U.K.-Iranian citizen on suspicion of plotting a terror attack, while five other suspects were released on bail.
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suspects → arrest → bail
Detectives said they found a quantity of an accelerant — gasoline — in vans near the air base, but no explosives.
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they → say → base
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the U.K. sees “strong indications” that Iran played a part in the incident but did not provide details.
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Iran → say → details
In the FlyDubai attack, Iran has not commented on U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that the co-pilot might have links to Iran.
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pilot → comment → Iran
Asked whether he had been briefed about any links, Trump said, “I would say the answer, based on what I’m hearing, is yes, but we’re working on it right now."
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we → ask → it
He did not elaborate.
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He → elaborate → ?
But even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the world's most vocal critics of Iran, has said it's too soon to say.
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it → say → Iran
With governments not sharing key details — such as suspects’ identities or possible motives, which are not made public during active police investigations in Britain — speculation risks filling the void.
“When you have this kind of gray area where evidence is lacking, there’s a tendency, especially (by) politicians, the media, etc., to attribute everything to Iran," said Antonio Giustozzi, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank.
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Giustozzi → share → Institute
He said the Iranians do not deny that they have cells abroad.
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they → say → cells
Incidents such as the one at RAF Fairford appear to fit a pattern of attacks designed to apply pressure and signal to U.S. allies that “in this case we did not do anything too terrible, but it wouldn’t be difficult to do something terrible,” Giustozzi said.
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Giustozzi → appear → something
He doubted, however, that Iran was involved in the FlyDubai incident: “In terms of strategy, dragging Israel in now brings zero benefit to Iran and only complicates the situation."
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dragging → doubt → situation
Iran praised asymmetric warfare
As recently as the past week, Iranian officials have openly promoted asymmetric warfare as a central strategy.
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officials → praise → strategy
“Asymmetric warfare means confronting the enemy’s expensive heavy weapons with lower costs and simpler, but more effective and practical defense equipment, and still achieving victory,” a senior Iranian military spokesperson, Brig. Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, said in comments reported by Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency.
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spokesperson → mean → agency
Such tactics are based on “self-sacrifice, faith and spirituality,” he said, and called conventional warfare vulnerable to this approach.
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he → base → approach
Tehran turned to that approach after the Islamic Revolution there in 1979 cut off military and other support from previous allies, including the United States.
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Revolution → turn → States
Iran embraced asymmetric efforts, notably the use of drones, during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and again during the current war that began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Feb. 28.
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that → embrace → Feb.
Iran's tactics have included a barrage of drone attacks against regional neighbors that host U.S. bases and assaults on ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
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that → include → Hormuz
Small attack boats and mines have also menaced the strait.
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boats → menace → strait
Armed proxies of Iran have launched attacks in southern Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza and Iraq.
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proxies → launch → Lebanon
“Tehran understands that it cannot defeat Israel or the United States in a conventional, high-intensity war.
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it → understand → war
Instead, the regime seems to be deploying an asymmetric and attritional response designed not for decisive battlefield victory, but rather endurance and survival,” the Soufan Center think tank wrote earlier this year.
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tank → seem → victory
Iran has denied alleged acts of sabotage
Iran has acknowledged some direct military or paramilitary attacks during the war, including against U.S. warships.
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Iran → deny → warships
But the kind of involvement authorities have suggested about the FlyDubai and England incidents is more indirect, making it difficult to confirm and easier to deny.
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it → suggest → incidents
The allegations echo concerns about the acts of sabotage in Europe that Russia has been widely accused of backing since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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Russia → echo → February
Moscow has denied them.
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Moscow → deny → them
Tehran has faced similar allegations in the past.
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Tehran → face → past
In an effort to "mitigate the risk of retaliatory attacks against Iran, Iranian agents have taken to hiring criminal proxies to carry out attacks at Tehran’s behest,” Matthew Levitt with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who maintains a database of incidents, wrote last year.
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who → mitigate → incidents
In one high-profile case, the U.S. Justice Department in November 2024 disclosed an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to kill Trump, charging a man who said he had been tasked by a government official before that month's election.
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he → disclose → election
Iran's government rejected the report and called it a plot to complicate relations.
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government → reject → relations
More recently, U.K. officials say proxies linked to Iran have been behind a string of arson and other attacks in Britain and other European countries, many of them targeting the Jewish community or opponents of Iran’s Islamic theocracy.
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many → say → theocracy
In October 2025, the head of the MI5 domestic intelligence service said his agency had tracked more than 20 “potentially lethal” Iran-backed plots in the past year.
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agency → say → year
…and 7 more, not listed.
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