Iran wants one thing in its war with the West

Read the original at The Independent ↗
The Independent · collected 2026-09-28 · by Maira Butt

Quick Summary

A potential terrorist plot was discovered near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire when a farmer noticed suspicious vans; five men were arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. The base is used by US forces for operations against Iran, potentially making it a target. Iran’s foreign minister has previously accused Britain of being an accomplice to these actions, and Tehran considers allied groups a legitimate target in its conflict with the West. The article explores various ways Iran targets opponents globally, including attacks on neighboring countries' infrastructure and plots aimed at killing dissidents and critics.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-28, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In recent days, security measures at RAF Fairford, a U.S. Air Force base in Gloucestershire, England, significantly increased with armed police and roadblocks preventing access to the base. On Sunday morning, British police declared a major incident after suspicious vehicles were reported near the airbase; five UK nationals in their 20s were arrested and later released on bail for terror offenses under suspicion of involvement with explosives.

Local residents noted heavy vehicles and concrete barriers blocking entrances to the base weeks before the incident. Around 30 emergency vehicles, including police cars, ambulances, and fire engines, were stationed near the base during heightened security measures. The arrests occurred amid increased tensions between the U.S., Iran, and the UK; Iranian officials have denied involvement.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested a "foreign actor" was involved, linking it to threats from adversaries like Iran, while British Prime Minister Andy Burnham indicated there are strong indications that Iran played a role in the incident, despite ongoing investigations. The U.K. and U.S. have been closely cooperating on this matter, with Burnham stating they were “on top of it.”

Written for “RAF Fairford Terror Plot Incident” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 192 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
39
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
10%
4 of 39 hedged
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
58.8
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
193
Crime & Law
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-28 · how these are computed

Story

📰 RAF Fairford Terror Plot Incident
Crime & Law · 193 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 10% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 7% hedged 3 of 45 📰 publisher trust 65
“Both articles describe the identical incident of a foiled terror plot against RAF Fairford alerted by a farmer, leading to the arrest of five men.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 26 📰 publisher trust 65
“Both articles describe the same incident involving a foiled terrorist plot near RAF Fairford, where five men were arrested and three suspicious vans were identified by a local farmer.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 17% hedged 4 of 24 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles describe the same incident involving suspicious activity near RAF Fairford leading to five men being arrested and later released on bail.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe a terrorist plot against RAF Fairford involving suspicious vans and arrests, linked to Iranian tensions with Western forces.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 25 📰 publisher trust 78
“Both articles describe the same incident involving a potential terrorist plot against RAF Fairford and the subsequent arrests of five men, with Article B providing further context on the UK government's stance and the Prime Minister's comments.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 24% hedged 5 of 21 📰 publisher trust 72
“Both articles describe the same specific terrorist plot scare involving RAF Fairford and the arrests of five men, with mentions of possible Iranian involvement.”
The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 27% hedged 4 of 15 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles refer to a specific security incident at RAF Fairford involving suspicious activity flagged as a potential terrorist plot and arrests made, with a direct reference to Iran's involvement.”
The Hindu
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 13 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe a major incident declared at RAF Fairford involving arrests and suspicious activity related to a potential terrorist plot, occurring over the weekend of September 27, 2026.”
ABC News (AU)
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 2 of 44 📰 publisher trust 61
“Both articles describe the same incident involving a potential terrorist attack near RAF Fairford and the arrest of five men, with details matching including the evacuation of homes and use of bomb disposal equipment.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 2 of 34 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles describe the same police investigation and potential terrorist plot against RAF Fairford, involving suspicious vehicles spotted by residents and arrests made.”

Publisher

The Independent · 1624 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Maira Butt
41 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 In pictures: US carrier George HW Bush visits Thailand after six-month Middle East deployment Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions are met, Nournews reports The Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until conditions set out in a June interim agreement with the US are met, Nournews reported Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bager Ghalibaf as saying on Sunday, a few days after Tehran received Washington's reply to its diplomatic proposal.
🔮 “That will probably change now and crew members will be subject to heavier screening.
🔮 Elisabeth Polaczy, 80, who operates the popular attraction, told the BBC that she has been forced to hand out free shorts to women and girls to protect them from people who may be filming in the crowd at the beer festival.
🔮 Aviation experts told the BBC that the rapid descent led to damage pictured on the plane’s rudder adding that the incident could easily have led to the plane breaking up in mid-air. Captain Smit Machchhar, an Indian national, was identified as the victim of the attack, while his arrested co-pilot was identified as Hamam al-Hammami on Saturday by sources cited in CNN.
🔮 Cpt Machchhar, covered with blood and lying on the floor, had managed to click open the release on the cockpit door so help could get through.
🔮 Papastavrou pointed out that the US could not replace the government of Greece, given it is elected by its citizens, the WSJ added.
🔮 On Tuesday, her lawyer Beatriz Duro told reporters that discussions had taken place with “goodwill from both parties” and that a new contract would be continued allowing her to continue paying a similar amount of rent as she had been previously.
🔮 The WHO also warned about a shortage of healthcare workers to contain the disease and at least 50 healthcare workers have died since the outbreak was announced on 15 May this year, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
🔮 Thousands are expected to be buried underneath.
🔮 Last week, foreign minister Ed Miliband told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Aragchi that Britain will “not tolerate intimidation, threats or hostile activity on UK soil” from groups connected to Iran during a face-to-face meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York.
2026-09-28 · assertive framing · Iran wants one thing in its war with the West
Also by Maira Butt
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 41 articles by Maira Butt →

Topics

Britain Independent Iran Iranian Russian

Subjects

Iran GPE · 10× Iranian NORP · 10× Trump PERSON · 3× Britain GPE · 2× Abbas Aragchi PERSON · 1× Ed Miliband PERSON · 1× Independent NORP · 1× Israeli NORP · 1× Russian NORP · 1× the UN General Assembly ORG · 1×

Narrative

The air base is used by the US military to conduct air strikes on Iran as part of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and is therefore considered a likely motive behind the attacks, although the police have not ruled anything out and are also investigating the possibility of a Russian sabotage link.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-28
🔮 Last week, foreign minister Ed Miliband told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Aragchi that Britain will “not tolerate intimidation, threats or hostile activity on UK soil” from groups connected to Iran during a face-to-face meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York.
2026-09-28 · The Independent
Iran wants one thing in its war with the West · assertive framing

Claims (39 extracted, 4 hedged)

A major incident was declared over the weekend after a potential terrorist plot against RAF Fairford was flagged by a local farmer who noticed three suspicious vans close to the military base near the Cotswolds. asserted
who → declare → Cotswolds
Five men have been arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act in connection with the event. asserted
men → arrest → event
The air base is used by the US military to conduct air strikes on Iran as part of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and is therefore considered a likely motive behind the attacks, although the police have not ruled anything out and are also investigating the possibility of a Russian sabotage link. asserted
police → use → link
Iran has made no secret of the fact that it considers US and Israeli allies a “legitimate target” of self-defence and called Britain an “accomplice”. asserted
allies → make → Britain
Last week, foreign minister Ed Miliband told his Iranian counterpart Abbas Aragchi that Britain will “not tolerate intimidation, threats or hostile activity on UK soil” from groups connected to Iran during a face-to-face meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York. asserted
Britain → tell → York
While the recent incident marks an escalation in potential violence by Iran against the West if it is found to be behind it, the country has been launching clandestine schemes against countries across the world for decades. asserted
country → mark → decades
Below we look at the main ways it targets its opponents. asserted
it → look → opponents
Attacks on neighbouring countries Since US-Israeli attacks started the war against Iran on 28 February, Tehran has launched a series of retaliatory strikes on its neighbours. asserted
Tehran → start → neighbours
Drones and missiles have struck oil and energy infrastructure and US military bases in the region as well as civilian targets such as airports and hotels. asserted
Drones → strike → airports
Countries affected include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, and even Iran’s mediation partner, Oman. asserted
Countries → affect → Arabia
A dozen countries have been affected including European nations such as Cyprus when British base RAF Akrotiri was hit by a suspected Iranian drone amid hostilities asserted
affected → affect → hostilities
In a report released by Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee in July 2025, the body concluded that Iran poses a “wide-ranging, persistent and unpredictable threat” but caveated that the risk is less developed and strategic in comparison to Russia and China. asserted
risk → release → Russia
It identified the greatest risk as “physical threat[s] posed to dissidents and other opponents”. asserted
It → identify → dissidents
In October 2025, the director general of MI5, Sir Ken McCallum reported that security agencies had tracked “more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots” in the previous year. asserted
agencies → report → year
The threats are so wide-ranging and extensive that the Washington Institute has an interactive map documenting over 45 years of Iranian clandestine operations around the globe. asserted
Institute → have → globe
It notes that Iran has “targeted Iranian dissidents and journalists, diplomats from countries opposed to Iranian policies, as well as Israelis and Jews in assassination plots, attempted abductions, intimidation campaigns, and surveillance operations”. asserted
Iran → note → plots
In July this year, two men were jailed for stabbing a journalist in south London in 2024 that was assessed to having been “carried out on behalf of or for the benefit of the Iranian regime”, according to the Met Police. uncertain
that → jail → Police
Trump assassination attempts Last month it emerged that Trump had been smuggled out of Air Force One in a catering truck to escape an Iranian assassination attempt when he visited the Nato summit in Ankara. asserted
he → emerge → Ankara
But it was not the first time that Iranian-backed groups or individuals have been linked to an attempt to attack the US leader. asserted
groups → back → leader
In 2024, an Afghan national and Iranian government operative was accused of hiring two New Yorkers to carry out an assassination plot against a critic of the Iranian regime. asserted
national → accuse → regime
He admitted to FBI agents that he’d also been recruited to find a squad to kill the then president-elect Trump. asserted
he → admit → Trump
During Trump’s presidential campaign, Asif Merchant, a Pakistani business owner admitted he had attempted to hire hitmen to assassinate the leader. asserted
he → admit → leader
But American investigators disrupted the plot before it could succeed. uncertain
it → disrupt → plot
The strategy involves simultaneous attacks using multiple means to cause maximum disruption and interrupt a unified response. asserted
strategy → involve → response
In March, a pro-Iranian group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al Islamiya (HAYI) claimed responsibility for a number of such attacks across Europe. asserted
group → call → Europe
Suspicions were immediately raised about the legitimacy of the group as so little was known about it. asserted
little → raise → it
The decentralised network of perpetrators claimed at least seven attacks in a period of seven weeks against Jewish communities, Israeli diplomatic missions, financial institutions and Iranian dissident journalists across Europe. asserted
network → claim → Europe
It emerged as a force around 10 days into the war with Iran. asserted
It → emerge → Iran
Four ambulances, as part of the Jewish volunteer medical service, were burned in an arson attack that British intelligence agencies believe was also linked to Iran. asserted
agencies → burn → Iran
HAYI later claimed responsibility for the incident, although the Met Police said it could not confirm the authenticity of its claim. uncertain
it → claim → claim
On 29 April the so-called group claimed responsibility for an attack on two Jewish men in Golders Green which was declared a terrorism incident. asserted
which → call → Green
A third Muslim man was also stabbed by the same perpetrator hours earlier. asserted
man → stab → perpetrator
Police commissioner Mark Rowley said that the suspect had a “history of serious violence and mental health issues”. asserted
suspect → say → violence
In 2022, Iran is believed to have hired a someone to assassinate presenters of Iran International, a plot that was foiled by authorities. asserted
that → believe → authorities
There have also been reports of an explosion outside the US embassy in Oslo, Norway in March, which the BBC noted coincided with the release of a since-deleted video of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that authorities were also investigating in connection with the incident. asserted
authorities → note → incident
France also probed a possible Iran link after a thwarted bomb attack outside of a Bank of America building in Paris in March this year, around a month into the conflict. asserted
France → probe → conflict
Hackers linked to Iran were also blamed for a cyber-attack that is reported to have shut down a UK power plant for four days, according to reports in The Telegraph. uncertain
that → link → Telegraph
Iranian hackers also boasted about hacking into FBI director Kash Patel’s personal email who shared his personal images and content online. asserted
who → boast → images
American data centres across the Middle East have also been affected with Iranian shahed drones striking two Amazon Web Services data centres in the Unite Arab Emirates, with a third commercial data centre hit in Bahrain. asserted
centre → affect → Bahrain
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