U.S. is running low on advanced defensive missiles — and it could take years to recover
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it → run → years
The statistics are sobering — so sobering that Defense Department officials refuse to confirm, deny or discuss them.
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officials → refuse → them
From Feb. 28 through July, the first five months of the war with Iraq, U.S. forces burned through almost 60% of the nation’s advanced defensive missiles — the Patriot and THAAD interceptors that protect American troops.
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that → burn → troops
When the war began, the Pentagon had almost 2,800 Patriot and THAAD missiles in its worldwide inventory, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an independent think tank.
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Pentagon → begin → Studies
By the end of July, that number had dropped to about 1,100, CSIS reported.
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CSIS → drop → 1,100
Almost two-thirds of the Patriots and almost 40% of the longer-range THAAD were gone.
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thirds → go → THAAD
“This is a generational annihilation of our theater missile defense capability,” said Tom Karako, director of CSIS’s Missile Defense Project.
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Karako → say → Project
“There’s no way you can look at this and not see it’s a setback.”
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it → ’ → this
The White House and the Pentagon have not challenged the CSIS figures, although they have issued sweeping denials that any shortage exists.
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shortage → challenge → denials
“We have far more munitions than anyone in the world, and far more than we need,” President Trump said in July.
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Trump → have → July
That’s true, but misleading.
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That → ’ → ?
The U.S. military still holds vast inventories of short-range offensive missiles.
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military → hold → missiles
But the sophisticated defensive missiles that protect U.S. troops no longer are abundant — as even Trump has acknowledged.
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Trump → protect → troops
“We have certain types of munitions [of which] we have unlimited, virtual unlimited supply,” he said last month.
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he → have → supply
“We have others where it’s a little bit tighter.”
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it → have → others
The result is a squeeze that has prompted U.S. commanders to husband Patriot and THAAD interceptors as scarce assets.
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that → prompt → assets
For much of August, when a frayed de facto ceasefire was in effect, U.S. forces did not respond with high-end missiles when Iran attacked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Iran → respond → Hormuz
But when Iran launched rockets against U.S. bases in Jordan last week, Patriots reportedly were used to knock the incoming missiles down.
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Patriots → launch → missiles
(The Pentagon has declined to confirm or deny those reports.)
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Pentagon → decline → reports
The U.S. weapons arsenal “no longer has the capacity to deter a Chinese attack against Taiwan,” the Council on Foreign Relations warned in a report last month.
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Council → have → report
Defense planners share the same concern over a potential Russian assault on the Baltic states.
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planners → share → states
The conservative Heritage Foundation has forecast that the Pentagon’s inventory of missiles would run out “within the first week of a Taiwan conflict.”
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inventory → forecast → conflict
In Europe, a U.S. defense official told the Associated Press last month that the shortfall was “beyond critical.”
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shortfall → tell → Press
If Russia attacked a NATO country, the official said, U.S. forces in the area would “take punch after punch in the mouth.”
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forces → attack → mouth
The core question is whether the United States has so few missiles that it cannot credibly deter China or Russia from attacking their neighbors.
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it → have → neighbors
“You’ve got to be strong enough to send a clear message that our enemies should not try anything because we’re a credible force,” said Leon Panetta, President Obama’s former defense secretary.
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Panetta → get → anything
“Now we’re losing a lot of that credibility — and that’s dangerous.”
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that → lose → credibility
Knowing that U.S. forces have been left without thousands of weapons needed to deter conflict, Karako said, could in itself be provocative.
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Karako → know → itself
“It could tempt an aggressor to do something, knowing that we have fewer [missiles] to thwart them.”
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we → tempt → them
The obvious remedy is to build more interceptors — a process Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered even before the war began.
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war → build → interceptors
But ramping up missile production won’t immediately replenish the stockpile.
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ramping → ramp → stockpile
Before the Iran war, defense contractors were producing only about 620 Patriots and 96 THAAD each year — fewer than half the number expended during a few weeks this spring.
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contractors → produce → weeks
At current production rates, it will take at least three years to return the Patriot inventory to its prewar level, and at least four years for THAAD, CSIS reported.
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CSIS → take → THAAD
Defense experts warn that the stocks need to be even larger than they were before the war to credibly deter China or Russia.
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they → warn → China
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and principal author of the CSIS estimates, says most analysts believe it will take years after replenishing the stocks expended in the Persian Gulf to build a credible deterrent against China.
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it → say → China
The Pentagon has enough munitions, both offensive and defensive, to continue fighting the campaign against Iran, he added — but some of those less-sophisticated weapons can be used only at shorter ranges, which means placing more troops in harm’s way.
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which → have → way
Cancian said the CSIS figures were based on publicly available Pentagon budget and acquisition documents, updated in some cases from recent press reports — but not from leaks of classified information.
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figures → say → information
The roots of the missile shortage began long before the war with Iran.
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roots → begin → Iran
Trump and Hegseth are not the only ones to blame, although their belief that Iran would quickly capitulate appears to have been a major factor.
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Iran → blame → ?
Nor did former President Biden cause the shortage, as Trump has claimed Biden gave several hundred Patriots to Ukraine, but the shortfall is far larger than that.
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shortfall → cause → that
…and 10 more, not listed.
