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· collected 2026-09-06 · by Gordon Sondland
analysis
In one of the most memorable scenes in "The Godfather," Don Vito Corleone gathers the heads of New York’s crime families to make peace and secure the return of his son Michael.
asserted
Corleone → gather → son
"But I’m a superstitious man," he tells them.
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he → ’m → them
He warns that if Michael should suffer some supposedly random misfortune—an implausible suicide, a fatal accident or even a bolt of lightning—"then I’m going to blame some of the people in this room…"
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I → warn → room
The message was unmistakable: Do not hide an attack behind coincidence, an intermediary or a carefully manufactured lack of proof.
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message → hide → proof
Whatever disguise is chosen, I will know where it came from, and I will hold the responsible people accountable.
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people → choose → where
It is time for NATO and the European Union to adopt what might be called the Godfather Test.
uncertain
what → adopt → ?
If a drone mysteriously crosses into the territory of an Eastern European country, we should presume Vladimir Putin is responsible.
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Putin → cross → country
If a power cable is severed beneath the Baltic Sea, we should presume Vladimir Putin is responsible.
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Putin → sever → Sea
If a government network is crippled, a weapons factory explodes, a railway system is disrupted or a political figure suddenly becomes the beneficiary of a sophisticated disinformation campaign, we should presume Vladimir Putin is responsible.
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Putin → cripple → campaign
Putin can then prove that he was not.
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he → prove → ?
This reverses the way the West has traditionally approached such events.
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West → reverse → events
Our democracies are built upon the presumption of innocence.
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democracies → build → innocence
It is one of our most important values, and it must remain inviolate when we administer justice to individuals through our courts.
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we → remain → courts
But Vladimir Putin is not a defendant standing in an American courtroom.
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Putin → stand → courtroom
Russia is not entitled to the protections of the Bill of Rights, a jury of its peers or an endless international discovery process before the West acts to defend itself.
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West → entitle → itself
We have no obligation to presume that the Kremlin is innocent while it is accorded some imaginary form of geopolitical due process.
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it → have → process
Yet that is effectively what we have been doing.
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we → do → what
Russia exploits our own system of innocence until guilt is proven, turning one of democracy’s greatest virtues into a strategic vulnerability.
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guilt → exploit → vulnerability
The Kremlin understands that Western governments are reluctant to act without evidence that can be publicly disclosed and defended beyond a reasonable doubt.
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that → understand → doubt
So Russia structures its operations to ensure that such evidence will rarely exist—or cannot be revealed without compromising intelligence sources and methods.
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evidence → structure → sources
Putin forfeited the benefit of the doubt long ago.
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Putin → forfeit → doubt
He forfeited it through the invasion of neighboring countries, the use of proxies and cutouts, cyberattacks, political interference, assassinations, sabotage, energy coercion and an endless stream of denials that collapses under scrutiny only after the damage is done.
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damage → forfeit → scrutiny
A government that repeatedly commits arson should not be treated as an innocent bystander every time smoke rises from another building.
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smoke → commit → building
For years, Russia has operated inside the gray zone between peace and open warfare.
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Russia → operate → peace
Its actions are designed to be damaging enough to weaken its adversaries but sufficiently murky to prevent a decisive response.
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actions → design → response
Moscow uses anonymous hackers, commercial vessels, intelligence operatives, fabricated local movements and supposedly independent criminal organizations.
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Moscow → use → hackers
It obscures responsibility, demands impossible standards of proof and then ridicules the West for its uncertainty.
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It → obscure → uncertainty
The tactic works because we allow it to work.
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it → work → ?
When suspicious acts of sabotage or destabilization threaten NATO or EU countries and bear the hallmarks of Russian activity, Moscow should be treated as responsible unless persuasive evidence demonstrates otherwise.
Every incident is treated as an entirely new mystery.
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incident → threaten → mystery
Governments open investigations, consult experts, compare intelligence and debate attribution.
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Governments → open → attribution
Months pass.
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Months → pass → ?
The public loses interest.
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public → lose → interest
Allies disagree over whether the evidence clears some arbitrary threshold.
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evidence → disagree → threshold
Russia denies everything, and the matter quietly disappears.
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matter → deny → everything
By then, the Kremlin has already moved on to its next operation.
Our excessive caution does not make us judicious.
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us → move → operation
It makes us predictable.
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us → make → ?
Putin knows that unless he launches a conventional attack with Russian flags flying from every tank, NATO will argue with itself over whether he was really responsible.
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he → know → itself
The West must reverse both the presumption and the incentive.
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West → reverse → presumption
When suspicious acts of sabotage or destabilization threaten NATO or EU countries and bear the hallmarks of Russian activity, Moscow should be treated as responsible unless persuasive evidence demonstrates otherwise.
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evidence → threaten → activity
And each event should be met with an asymmetric ratcheting up of the costs imposed on Russia.
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event → meet → Russia
…and 27 more, not listed.
