- Published
When mutinous soldiers seized a strategic military base in Niger's capital last Saturday, the country's ruling junta turned to a foreign partner it has increasingly relied on since coming to power: Russia.
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it → publish → power
Following a night of intense fighting in Niamey, Russia's Africa Corps helped Nigerien loyalist forces to regain control of Air Base 101 at Diori Hamani International Airport.
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forces → follow → Airport
It provides combat support and military training and is thought to have some 200 to 300 men in Niger.
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It → provide → Niger
Russia's ambassador to Niger, Viktor Voropaev, publicly acknowledged the weekend intervention, saying his country's forces had helped "repress a mutiny".
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forces → acknowledge → mutiny
"This is seen as a symbolic victory," according to Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risks.
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This → see → Risks
"[One] that will continue to put them at the centre of not just the counter-insurgency campaign, but even in the protection and prolongation of military rule.
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that → continue → rule
The attempted coup offers perhaps the clearest evidence yet that Africa Corps' role in three Sahel countries extends beyond its stated mission of helping governments fight jihadist insurgencies.
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governments → attempt → insurgencies
Russia is increasingly demonstrating that it can provide something perhaps even more valuable to the military rulers of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso: protection for the governments themselves.
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it → demonstrate → governments
"It was not sufficient to bring stability," said Ochieng, "but it's enough to allow these military governments to have a political lifeline.
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governments → bring → lifeline
"
The thwarted mutiny also highlights something the ruling junta may not want to admit - just how dependent on Moscow it has become for security.
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it → thwart → security
In January, Africa Corps personnel also played an important role in repelling an attack at the same airport.
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personnel → play → airport
"We saw videos of the jihadists walking around the airport basically completely unimpeded," said Jacob Boswall, a security analyst who tracks jihadist activity for the BBC's media monitoring service.
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who → see → service
"Probably there is some substance to the claim that Africa Corps was able to restore power in that case [in January].
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Corps → be → January
And I think, again, in this case as well, that intervention was very significant."
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intervention → think → case
One of the Nigerien military's central justifications for the July 2023 coup, which saw Gen Abdourahamane Tiani seize power, was the deteriorating security situation and alleged failure of Niger's civilian authorities, under elected President Mohamed Bazoum, to tackle it.
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Tiani → see → it
They also blamed Western partners at the time for their inability to contain jihadist violence.
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They → blame → violence
Yet, three years later, that insurgency remains unresolved.
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insurgency → remain → ?
Militants linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State have continued to launch attacks, including in the Tillabéri and Dosso regions.
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Militants → link → regions
Some, inflicting heavy casualties on security forces.
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Some → inflict → forces
Ochieng described this latest mutiny as evidence of longstanding grievances within Niger's own military, compounded by the pressure the soldiers have been facing.
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soldiers → describe → pressure
"Counter-insurgency forces do not feel adequately supported by the military government," she said.
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she → support → government
"
Niger's government is facing threats on two fronts: extremist militant groups attacking the state, and grievances within its armed forces responsible for fighting them.
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government → face → them
Africa Corps may have helped contain the latter this past weekend, but it has yet to resolve the former.
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it → help → former
Unlike Wagner mercenaries, whose status in a private military company allowed Moscow some deniability, Africa Corps is more clearly an instrument of the Russian state.
"The whole point of Africa Corps is that it brings the power back under the control of the Russian Ministry of Defence," said Boswall.
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Boswall → allow → Defence
Officially, its forces are deployed to help Sahel governments combat Islamist militant groups.
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governments → deploy → groups
But dissidents contemplating moves against military governments elsewhere in the Sahel region may now have to factor Russian forces into their calculations.
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dissidents → contemplate → calculations
Despite the struggle to contain the jihadists, no-one anticipates Africa Corps leaving the Sahel any time soon.
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Corps → contain → Sahel
Keeping those governments in power protects Russia's investment.
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Keeping → keep → investment
"Wagner - and now Africa Corps - have always had a very transactional interest in Africa," Boswall said.
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Boswall → have → Africa
"If they can get mineral resources in exchange for providing protection and defence, then they will.
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they → get → protection
We see that in Mali with gold… and then in Niger, it really is uranium [that] seems to be the main resource that Africa Corps is protecting.
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Corps → see → that
Analysts say Russia also benefits from having friendly governments that could support it in international forums.
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that → say → forums
"Having that kind of international group of supportive countries, Russia sees as giving Russia credibility - diplomatic credibility," Boswall explained.
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Boswall → have → credibility
Like Mali and Burkina Faso, Tiani's government has built much of its legitimacy using the language of sovereignty, pan-Africanism and liberation from former colonial powers.
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government → build → powers
All three governments ordered French troops to leave.
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governments → order → troops
They also formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and subsequently withdrew from the West African regional bloc Ecowas, presenting the new alliance as an assertion of regional independence.
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They → form → independence
Some analysts regard this as at odds with its growing reliance on Africa Corps.
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analysts → regard → Corps
"The military governments argue that they have selected Russia on their own terms," said Ochieng.
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Ochieng → argue → terms
"Russia is seen as a partner that respects that sovereignty, unlike their previous partnerships with France or even the EU and, to some extent, with the US."
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that → see → US
An army captain on Niger state television accused foreign powers, including France and Chad, of being behind last weekend's unrest, while Russia's foreign ministry described the mutineers as "extremists seemingly incited by European former colonial powers".
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ministry → accuse → powers
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
